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Forecasting of Inspection Demand for Pressure Vessels in Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle using Bass Diffusion Model

Bass 확산모델을 이용한 수소전기차 내압용기 검사수요 예측

  • Kim, Ji-Yu (Dept. of Safety Engineering, Korea National University of Transportation) ;
  • Kim, Eui-Soo (Dept. of Safety Engineering, Korea National University of Transportation)
  • 김지유 (한국교통대학교 안전공학과) ;
  • 김의수 (한국교통대학교 안전공학과)
  • Received : 2021.06.04
  • Accepted : 2021.06.22
  • Published : 2021.06.30

Abstract

The global warming problem has arose, the supply eco-friendly vehicles such as HFCEVs is increasing around world and Korea is fully supporting subsidies, tax cut to form an initial market for HFCEVs. The key to the safety of HFCEVs is pressure vessels stored hydrogen, and although these pressure vessels must be inspection regularly, the existing inspection stations are insufficient to meet the demand for inspection. Therefore, it is important to establishment of pressure vessels inspection station for safety management of HFCEVs. In this study, it estimates innovation coefficient, imitation coefficient in Bass model by using electric vehicle sales data, and foretasted the supply of HFCEVs by region & the demand for inspection by region using the Bass diffusion model. As a result, the inspection demand for pressure vessels in HFCEVs in 2040 was 690,759 units, and it was confirmed 191 new inspection stations and 1,124 inspectors were needed to prepare for this.

지구온난화 문제가 대두되어 세계 각국에서 수소전기차와 같은 친환경 자동차 보급이 증가하는 추세이다. 한국은 수소전기차 초기 시장 형성을 위해 차량 구매 시 보조금 지원, 세금감면 등 전폭적으로 지원하고 있다. 수소전기차 안전성에 있어 중요 핵심은 수소를 저장하는 내압용기로 정기적으로 검사해야 하나 기존 내압용기 검사소만으로는 수소전기차 내압용기 검사수요를 감당하기에는 역부족인 상황으로 수소전기차의 안전관리를 위한 내압용기 검사소 구축이 가장 중요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 전기차 판매 데이터를 이용하여 Bass 확산모델의 혁신 및 모방계수를 추정하고, 이를 Bass 확산모델에 적용하여 수소전기차의 지역별 보급 대수 및 수소 내압용기 검사수요를 예측하였다. 그 결과 2040년 국내 수소전기차 검사수요는 690,759대로 이를 대비하기 위해서는 191개소의 신규 수소전기차 내압용기 검사소와 검사인력 1,124명이 필요한 것으로 확인되었다.

Keywords

References

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