DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

On the models for the distribution of examination score for projecting the demand for Korean Long-Term Care Insurance

  • Javal, Sophia Nicole (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Soongsil University) ;
  • Kwon, Hyuk-Sung (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Soongsil University)
  • Received : 2021.01.22
  • Accepted : 2021.04.21
  • Published : 2021.07.31

Abstract

The Korean Long-Term Care Insurance (K-LTCI) provides financial support for long-term care service to people who need various types of assistance with daily activities. As the number of elderly people in Korea is expected to increase in the future, the demand for long-term care insurance would also increase over time. Projection of future expenditure on K-LTCI depends on the number of beneficiaries within the grading system of K-LTCI based on the test scores of applicants. This study investigated the suitability of mixture distributions to the model K-LTCI score distribution using recent empirical data on K-LTCI, provided by the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). Based on the developed mixture models, the number of beneficiaries in each grade and its variability under the current grading system were estimated by simulation. It was observed that a mixture model is suitable for K-LTCI score distribution and may prove useful in devising a funding plan for K-LTCI benefit payment and investigating the effects of any possible revision in the K-LTCI grading system.

Keywords

References

  1. Chan WS, Li SH, and Fong PW (2004). An actuarial analysis of long-term care demand in Hong Kong, Geriatrics and Gerontology International, 4, 143-145.
  2. Choi ID and Lee HY (2011). Projection of long-term care insurance beneficiary and financing, Journal of Korean Gerontological Society, 31, 1047-1065.
  3. Choi ID, Lee SL, and Lee JM (2010). Projection of long-term care insurance: beneficiary and, personnel and facility, Journal of the Korean Social Security Association, 26, 375-400. https://doi.org/10.18284/jss.2010.06.29.1.375
  4. Karlsson M, Mayhew L, Plumb R, and Rickayzen B (2006). Future costs for long-term care: cost projection for long-term care for older people in the United Kingdom, Health Policy, 75, 187-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2005.03.006
  5. Kim H and Kwon S (2012). Projection of demand and expenditure for services under long-term care insurance for the elderly in Korea, The Korean Journal of Health Economics and Policy, 18, 29-51.
  6. Klugman SA, Panjer HH, and Willmot GE (2019). Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Wiley, New Jersey.
  7. Kwon H (2013). Actuarial analysis of long term care insurance for the elderly in Korea, The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 26, 725-736. https://doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2013.26.5.725
  8. Kwon HS, Ko B, and Kim JH (2016). Actuarial applications of a statistical model for long-term care insurance operated with a score-based grading system: a case study of Korean long-term care insurance (K-LTCI), Asia Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 10, 217-243. https://doi.org/10.1515/apjri-2015-0028
  9. Kwon HS and Lee CS (2011). Estimating future needs of the Korean public long term care insurance, Journal of Insurance Academic Society, 88, 89-114.
  10. Lagergren M, Kurube N, and Yasuhiko S (2018). Future costs of long-term care in Japan and Sweden, International Journal of Health Services, 48, 128-147. https://doi.org/10.1177/0020731417727450
  11. Lee H and Moon Y (2017). Financial projection of long-term care insurance in according to population aging, Journal of the Korean Social Security Association, 33, 129-151.
  12. Lee JW and Choi ID (2014). The supply and demand projection of national long-term care insurance for an political response, Journal of Critical Social Welfare, 43, 7-46.
  13. Leung E (2004). Projecting the needs and cost of long-term care in Australia, Australian Actuarial Journal, 10, 343-385.
  14. Linda P, Comas-Herrera A, Costa-Font J, Gori C, Di Maio A, Patxot C, Rothgang H, and Wittenberg R (2007). Modelling an entitlement to long-term care services for older people in Europe: projections for long-term care expenditure to 2050, Journal of European Social Policy, 17, 33-48. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928707071879
  15. Rickayzen BD and Walsh DEP (2002). A multi-state model of disability for the United Kingdom: implications for future need for long-term care for the elderly, British Actuarial Journal, 8, 341-393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357321700003755
  16. Vanella P, Hess M, and Wilke C (2020). A probabilistic projection of beneficiaries of long-term care insurance in Germany by severity of disability, Quality and Quantity, 54, 943-974. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-00968-w
  17. Wittenberg R, Pickard L, Comas-Herrera A, Davis B, and Darton R (1998). Demand for Long-Term Care: Prospections of Long-Term Care Finance for Elderly People, Personal social services research unit (PSSRU), London school of Economics (LSE).
  18. Xu X and Chen L (2019). Projection of long-term care costs in China, 2020-2050: based on the Bayesian quantile regression method, Sustainability, 11, 3530. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133530
  19. Yun H and Kwon HJ (2010). Projecting public expenditure for long-term care in Korea, Korean Journal of Health Policy and Administration, 20, 37-63. https://doi.org/10.4332/KJHPA.2010.20.1.037