Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology (수산해양기술연구)

The Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology (한국수산해양기술학회)
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Estimation of drift force by real ship using multiple regression analysis

다중회귀분석에 의한 실선의 표류력 추정

  • AHN, Jang-Young (College of Ocean Sciences, Jeju National University) ;
  • KIM, Kwang-il (College of Ocean Sciences, Jeju National University) ;
  • KIM, Min-Son (Marine Production System Major, Kunsan National University) ;
  • LEE, Chang-Heon (College of Ocean Sciences, Jeju National University)
  • 안장영 (제주대학교 해양과학대학) ;
  • 김광일 (제주대학교 해양과학대학) ;
  • 김민선 (군산대학교 해양생산시스템전공) ;
  • 이창헌 (제주대학교 해양과학대학)
  • Received : 2021.05.03
  • Accepted : 2021.08.02
  • Published : 2021.08.31
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Abstract

In this study, a drifting test using a experimental vessel (2,966 tons) in the northern waters of Jeju was carried out for the first time in order to obtain the fundamental data for drift. During the test, it was shown that the average leeway speed and direction by GPS position were 0.362 m/s and 155.54° respectively and the leeway rate for wind speed was 8.80%. The analysis of linear regression modes about leeway speed and direction of the experimental vessel indicated that wind or current (i.e. explanatory variable) had a greater influence upon response variable (e.g. leeway speed or direction) with the speed of the wind and current rather than their directions. On the other hand, the result of multiple regression model analysis was able to predict that the direction was negative, and it was demonstrated that predicted values of leeway speed and direction using an experimental vessel is to be more influential by current than wind while the leeway speed through variance and covariance was positive. In terms of the leeway direction of the experimental vessel, the same result of the leeway speed appeared except for a possibility of the existence of multi-collinearity. Then, it can be interpreted that the explanatory variables were less descriptive in the predicted values of the leeway direction. As a result, the prediction of leeway speed and direction can be demonstrated as following equations. Ŷ1= 0.4031-0.0032X1+0.0631X2-0.0010X3+0.4110X4 Ŷ2= 0.4031-0.6662X1+27.1955X2-0.6787X3-420.4833X4 However, many drift tests using actual vessels and various drifting objects will provide reasonable estimations, so that they can help search and rescue fishing gears as well.

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References

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