Korean Journal of Agricultural Science (농업과학연구)

Institute of Agricultural Science, CNU (충남대학교 농업과학연구소)
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Analysis of future flood inundation change in the Tonle Sap basin under a climate change scenario

  • Lee, Dae Eop (Department of Disaster Prevention KNU Emergency management Institute) ;
  • Jung, Sung Ho (Department of Advanced Science and Technology Convergence, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Yeon, Min Ho (Department of Advanced Science and Technology Convergence, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Lee, Gi Ha (Department of Advanced Science and Technology Convergence, Kyungpook National University)
  • Received : 2021.04.13
  • Accepted : 2021.06.30
  • Published : 2021.09.01
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Abstract

In this study, the future flood inundation changes under a climate change were simulated in the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, one of the countries with high vulnerability to climate change. For the flood inundation simulation using the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model, globally available geological data (digital elevation model [DEM]; hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle elevation derivatives [HydroSHED]; land cover: Global land cover facility-moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer [GLCF-MODIS]), rainfall data (Asian precipitation-highly-resolved observational data integration towards evaluation [APHRODITE]), climate change scenario (HadGEM3-RA), and observational water level (Kratie, Koh Khel, Neak Luong st.) were constructed. The future runoff from the Kratie station, the upper boundary condition of the RRI model, was constructed to be predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Based on the results predicted by the LSTM model, a total of 4 cases were selected (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5: 2035, 2075; RCP 8.5: 2051, 2072) with the largest annual average runoff by period and scenario. The results of the analysis of the future flood inundation in the Tonle Sap basin were compared with the results of previous studies. Unlike in the past, when the change in the depth of inundation changed to a range of about 1 to 10 meters during the 1997 - 2005 period, it occurred in a range of about 5 to 9 meters during the future period. The results show that in the future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the variability of discharge is reduced compared to the past and that climate change could change the runoff patterns of the Tonle Sap basin.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 결과물은 환경부의 재원으로 한국환경산업기술원의 물관리연구사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었습니다.(127562).

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