Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems (한국산업정보학회논문지)

Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems (한국산업정보학회)
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Analysis of Factors Affecting Surge in Container Shipping Rates in the Era of Covid19 Using Text Analysis

코로나19 판데믹 이후 컨테이너선 운임 상승 요인분석: 텍스트 분석을 중심으로

  • Received : 2022.01.17
  • Accepted : 2022.01.28
  • Published : 2022.02.28
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Abstract

In the era of the Covid19, container shipping rates are surging up. Many studies have attempted to investigate the factors affecting a surge in container shipping rates. However, there is limited literature using text mining techniques for analyzing the underlying causes of the surge. This study aims to identify the factors behind the unprecedented surge in shipping rates using network text analysis and LDA topic modeling. For the analysis, we collected the data and keywords from articles in Lloyd's List during past two years(2020-2021). The results of the text analysis showed that the current surge is mainly due to "US-China trade war", "rising blanking sailings", "port congestion", "container shortage", and "unexpected events such as the Suez canal blockage".

코로나19 판데믹 상황에서 컨테이너선 운임은 유례없는 큰 폭의 상승세를 보이고 있다. 컨테이너선 운임 상승 요인에 대해서 다양한 분석이 이루어지고 있으나, 비정형 데이터인 텍스트 자료를 활용한 분석은 전무한 상황이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 관련 기사들을 대상으로 최근의 컨테이너선 운임 상승의 요인들을 텍스트 마이닝 기법중 하나인 네트워크 텍스트 분석과 LDA 토픽 모델링을 통해 파악하였다. 2020년 1월부터 2021년 7월까지 로이즈리스트에 게재된 기사들을 대상으로 텍스트 분석을 하였다. 분석 결과, 중국과 미국의 무역마찰, 글로벌 생산감소를 예측한 글로벌 선사들의 급격한 기항 횟수의 감소와 임시결항의 증가, 터미널 혼잡, 수에즈 운하 봉쇄와 같은 예기치 못한 사고들이 주요 원인으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 한국해양수산개발원이 2021년에 지원한 "수에즈 운하 등 주요 선박 통항로의 선박 좌초 및 폐쇄에 따른 해운운임 변동 예측" 연구과제의 분석결과를 토대로 작성되었음.

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