Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Spatial Assessment of Climate Suitability for Summer Cultivation of Potato in North Korea

기후적합도 모형을 활용한 북한지역 내 감자의 여름재배 적지 탐색

  • Kang, Minju (Department of Plant Science, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hyun, Shinwoo (Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Bioresources, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Kwang Soo (Department of Plant Science, Seoul National University)
  • 강민주 (서울대학교 식물생산과학부) ;
  • 현신우 (서울대학교 농림생물자원학부) ;
  • 김광수 (서울대학교 식물생산과학부)
  • Received : 2022.03.07
  • Accepted : 2022.03.29
  • Published : 2022.03.30
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Abstract

Expansion of potato production areas can improve the food security in North Korea because the given crop has less requirements for agricultural materials and facilities. The Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model, which was developed to evaluate climate suitability under different cultivation conditions, was used to identify potential areas for the potato production. The spatial estimates of crop suitability under low and high input management conditions were downloaded from the GAEZ data portal. The values of suitability were obtained at the potato occurrence sites retrieved from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. The suitable areas for the potato production were identified using a threshold value derived from the suitability estimates at the occurrence sites. It was found that 90% of the occurrence sites had the suitability index value >3,333, which was set to be the threshold value. The suitable areas in North Korea were summarized by province and county. Rice cultivation areas were excluded from the analysis. The reported relative acreage of potato production was better represented by the suitable areas under the low input management options than the high input conditions. The suitable areas also had a similar distribution to the reported acreage of potato production by county. These results indicated that the GAEZ model would be useful to identify the candidate production areas, which would facilitate the increases in potato production especially under future climate conditions. Furthermore, monthly maps of crop suitability can be used to design cropping systems that would improve crop production under the limited use of agricultural materials and facilities.

북한의 식량 안보 위기를 개선하기 위해 농자재와 관개시설의 요구도가 적은 감자 재배 면적을 확대하는 것이 유리하다. 특히, 저투입 조건에서 감자의 생산성을 높일 있는 적지를 공간적으로 파악하기 위해 재배 조건과 기후적합도를 동시에 평가할 수 있는 Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) 모형을 사용하였다. 본 연구에서는 Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) 데이터베이스에 수록된 감자 위치 자료를 사용하여 10 km 공간해상도를 가진 GAEZ 모형의 적합도 추정값의 분포를 분석하였다. 그 결과 중간정도에 해당하는 적합도 값인 3,333 이상에서 적합도가 0인 지점을 제외한 감자 위치 지점의 90%가 포함되었다. MODIS-IGBP 토지이용자료와 GAEZ Data Portal에서 제공하는 벼 수량 자료를 사용하여 추정된 감자 재배 후보 지역 중에서 적합도가 임계값 이상을 가진 재배적지를 구분한 결과 저투입 조건에서 추정된 재배적지는 실제 북한의 감자 재배지 공간 분포와 유사한 경향이 있었다. 특히, 군 단위의 재배 면적과 재배적지 면적을 비교하여, 재배규모가 큰 지역에서 재배적지의 면적도 넓은 경향을 보임을 확인하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 적합도의 임계값을 바탕으로 미래 기후조건에서 추정된 값에 적용하여, 기후변화에 따른 재배지 변동 연구에 기초 자료로 사용될 수 있을 것이다. 또한, 여러 작물의 기후적합도를 함께 고려하여 작부체계를 구성한다면 전반적인 작물 생산성을 높일 수 있을 것으로 사료되었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 농촌진흥청 공동연구사업(과제번호: PJ015045032022)의 지원에 의해 수행되었습니다. 또한, 자료 정리에 도움을 준 신다연 학사과정 학생에게 감사를 드립니다.

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