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Mid- and Long-term Forecast of Forest Biomass Energy in South Korea, and Analysis of the Alternative Effects of Fossil Fuel

한국의 산림바이오매스에너지 중장기 수요-공급전망과 화석연료 대체효과 분석

  • Lee, Seung-Rok (Graduate School of Energy and Environment (KU-KIST Green School), Korea University) ;
  • Han, Hee (Forest Policy and Economics Division, National Institute of Forest Science, Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Bioresources, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Chang, Yoon-Seong (Forest Policy and Economics Division, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Jeong, Hanseob (Forest Industrial Materials Division, Forest Products and Industry Department, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Lee, Soo Min (Forest Industrial Materials Division, Forest Products and Industry Department, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Han, Gyu-Seong (Department of Wood and Paper Science, College of Agriculture, Life & Environments Sciences, Chungbuk National University)
  • Received : 2022.05.31
  • Accepted : 2022.06.22
  • Published : 2022.09.25

Abstract

This study analyzed the anticipated supply-and-demand of forest biomass energy (through wood pellets) until 2050, in South Korea. Comparing the utilization rates of forest resources of five countries (United Kingdom, Germany, Finland, Japan, and S. Korea), it was found that S. Korea does not nearly utilize its forest resources for energy purposes. The total demand for wood pellets in S. Korea (based on a power generation efficiency of 38%) was predicted to be 3,629 and 4,371 thousand tons in 2034 and 2050, respectively. The anticipated total wood pellet power generation ratio to target power consumption is 1.13% (5,745 GWh), 1.17% (6,336 GWh), and 1.25% (7,631 GWh) in 2020, 2030, and 2050, respectively. Low value-added forest residues left unattended in forests are called "Unused Forest Biomass" in S. Korea. From the analysis, the total annual potential amount of raw material, sustainably collectible amount, and available amount of wood pellet in 2050 were estimated to be 6,877, 4,814, and 3,370 thousand tons, respectively. The rate of contribution to Nationally Determined Contributions was up to 0.64%. Through this study, the authors found that forest biomass energy will contribute to a carbon neutral society in the near future at the national level.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 2021년도 산림청 정책연구 '산림바이오매스 활성화 세부 실시계획 수립을 위한 연구'와 2022년도 국립산림과학원 연구사업(FP0700-2022-01-2022)에 의해 이루어진 것입니다.

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