Asia Marketing Journal

Korean Marketing Association (한국마케팅학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

The Effect of Lockdown Repeal on Socialization: Bayesian Multilevel Difference-in-Differences Approach

  • Received : 2022.09.07
  • Accepted : 2022.09.20
  • Published : 2022.10.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The COVID-19 lockdown has had an unprecedented impact on people in various ways. This study evaluates the effect of lockdown repeal from both marketing and public-policy perspectives. Combining the Bayesian multilevel model with the difference-in-differences design, we find that a lockdown repeal has had a negative impact on socialization. Furthermore, the results show that those who have a low level of risk perception are less affected by lockdown repeal. Also, the negative effect of lockdown repeal varies depending on past socialization behaviors; that is, the lockdown-repeal effect is attenuated for those who socialized more than others in the past. Our findings contribute to the intersection of public policy and marketing literature and provide both academic and practical implications.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2020S1A3A2A02093277). This work was supported by Yonsei Signature Research Cluster (2022-22-0007).

References

  1. Allen, Douglas W. (2022), "Covid-19 lockdown cost/benefits: A critical assessment of the literature," International Journal of the Economics of Business, 29 (1), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/13571516.2021.1976051
  2. Andersen, Martin (2020), "Early evidence on social distancing in response to COVID-19 in the United States," Working paper, Greensboro, University of North Carolina."
  3. Arnon, Alexander, John Ricco, and Smetters Kent (2020), "Epidemiological and economic effects of lockdown," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2020 (3), 61-108. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0033
  4. Atefi, Yashar, Michael Ahearne, G. James, Maxham D. Todd Donavan, and Brad D. Carlson (2018), "Does selective sales force training work?" Journal of Marketing Research, 55 (5), 722-37. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022243718803096
  5. Austin, Peter C. and Elizabeth A. Stuart (2015), "Moving towards best practice when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score to estimate causal treatment effects in observational studies," Statistics in Medicine, 34 (28), 3661-79. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.6607
  6. Bottary, Ryan, Eric C. Fields, Elizabeth A. Kensigner, and Tony J. Cunningham (2022), "Age and chronotype influenced sleep timing changes during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Sleep Research, 31 (2), 1-7.
  7. Brehm, Jack W. (1966), "A theory of psychological reactance," Oxford: Academic Press.
  8. Brewer, Noel T., Gretchen B. Chapman, Frederick X. Gibbons, Meg Gerrard, and Kevin D. McCaul (2007), "Meta-analysis of the relationship between risk perception and health behavior: The example of vaccination," Health Psychology, 26 (2), 136-45. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-6133.26.2.136
  9. Brzezinski, Adam, Valentin Kecht, and David Van Dijcke. (2020), "The cost of staying open: Voluntary social distancing and lockdowns in the US," Working paper, economics series, Department of Economics, University of Oxford."
  10. Bu, Feifei, Jessica K. Bone, John J. Mitchell, Andrew Steptoe, and Daisy Fancourt (2021), "Longitudinal changes in physical activity during and after the first national lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic in england," Scientific Reports, 11 (1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79139-8
  11. Champion, Victoria L. and Celette Sugg Skinner (2008), "The health belief model," Health behavior and health education: Theory, Research, and Practice, 4, 45-65.
  12. Cho, Sang-Wook (2020), "Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden," The Econometrics Journal, 23 (3), 323-44. https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utaa025
  13. Choi, Jeonghye, Sam K. Hui, and David R. Bell (2010), "Spatiotemporal analysis of imitation behavior across new buyers at an online grocery retailer," Journal of Marketing Research, 47 (1), 75-89. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmkr.47.1.75
  14. Choi, Sungjee, Inwoo Nam, and Jaehwan Kim (2020), "Effect of social norm on consumer demand: Multiple constraint approach," Asia Marketing Journal, 22 (1), 41-60. https://doi.org/10.15830/amj.2020.22.1.41
  15. Clee, Mona A. and Robert A. Wicklund (1980), "Consumer behavior and psychological reactance," Journal of Consumer Research, 6 (4), 389-405. https://doi.org/10.1086/208782
  16. Copping, L.T. (2022), "Anxiety and covid-19 compliance behaviors in the UK: The moderating role of conspiratorial thinking," Personality and Individual Differences, 192, Article 111604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2022.111604
  17. Cunningham, Tony J., Eric C. Fields, and Elizabeth A. Kensinger (2021), "Boston college daily sleep and well-being survey data during early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic," Scientific Data, 8 (1), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00786-7
  18. Datta, Hannes, Knox George, and Bart J. Bronnenberg (2018), "Changing their tune: How consumers' adoption of online streaming affects music consumption and discovery," Marketing Science, 37 (1), 5-21. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2017.1051
  19. De Jonge, Patricia, Marcel Zeelenberg, and Peeter WJ. Verlegh (2018), "Putting the public back in behavioral public policy," Behavioural Public Policy, 2 (2), 218-26. https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2018.23
  20. Demirtas,-Madran and H. Andac (2021), "Accepting restrictions and compliance with recommended preventive behaviors for COVID-19: A discussion based on the key approaches and current research on fear appeals," Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 1-15.
  21. Di Domenico, Giulia Pullano Laura, Chiara E. Sabbatini, PierreYves Boelle, and Vittoria Colizza (2020), "Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in ile-de-France and possible exit strategies," BMC Medicine, 18 (1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-019-1443-1
  22. Ding, Ding, Borja del Pozo Cruz, Mark A. Green, and Adrian E Bauman (2020), "Is the COVID-19 lockdown nudging people to Be more active: A big data analysis," British Journal of Sports Medicine, 54 (20), 1183-4. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2020-102575
  23. Ekstrom, K.M. (2006), "Consumer socialization revisited," Oxford: Elsevier Science Ltd.
  24. Epicentre. (2020), "COVID-19 epi dashboard," (accessed September 4, 2020), https://reports.msf.net/public/covid19/.
  25. Fields, Eric C., Elizabeth A. Kensinger, Sandry M. Garcia, Jaclyn H. Ford, and Tony J. Cunningham (2021), "With age comes well-being: Older age associated with lower stress, negative affect, and depression throughout the COVID-19 pandemic," Aging & Mental Health.
  26. Fitzpatrick, Kevin M., Casey Harris, and Drawve Grant (2020), "Fear of COVID-19 and the mental health consequences in America," Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy, 12 (S1), S17-21. https://doi.org/10.1037/tra0000924
  27. Flint, Alastair J., Kathleen S. Bingham, and Andrea Iaboni (2020), "Effect of COVID-19 on the mental health care of older people in Canada," International Psychogeriatrics, 32 (10), 1113-6. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1041610220000708
  28. Floyd, Donna L., Steven Prentice-Dunn, and Ronald W. Rogers (2000), "A meta-analysis of research on protection motivation theory," Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 30 (2), 407-29. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2000.tb02323.x
  29. Fowler, James H., Seth J. Hill, Remy Levin, and Nick Obradovich (2020), "The effect of stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States," medRxiv.
  30. Franks, Jeffrey R., Bertrand Gruss, Carlow Mulas Granados, Manasa Patnam, and Sebastien Weber (2020), "Exiting from lockdowns: Early evidence from reopenings in europe," working paper," Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
  31. Gelman, Andrew and Jennifer Hill (2006), "Data analysis using regression and multilevel hierarchical models," Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  32. Glaeser, Edward L., Ginger Z. Jin, T. Benjamin, Leyden, and Michael Luca (2021), "Learning from deregulation: The asymmetric impact of lockdown and reopening on risky behavior during COVID-19," Journal of Regional Science, 61 (4), 696-709. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12539
  33. Glogowsky, Ulrich, Emanuel Hansen, and Simeon Schachtele (2020), "How effective are social distancing policies? Evidence on the fight against COVID-19 from Germany," PLoS One, 16 (9), Article e0257363.
  34. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew and Jan Marcus (2020), "Using difference-in-differences to identify causal effects of COVID-19 policies," Survey Research Methods, 14 (2), 153-8.
  35. Hakansson, A. and E. Claesdotter (2022), "Fear of COVID-19, compliance with recommendations against virus transmission, and attitudes towards vaccination in Sweden," Heliyon, 8 (1), Article e08699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08699
  36. Jeff, Zeleny (2020), "Why these 8 republican governors are holding out on statewide stay-at-home orders," CNN Politics (April 4), httpsL://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/04/politics/republicangovernors-stay-at-home-orders-coronavirus/index.html.
  37. Jo, Wooyong, Hyoryung Nam, and Jeonghye Choi (2021), "Opening the OTC drug market: The effect of deregulation on retail pharmacy's performance," International Journal of Research in Marketing, 39 (3), 847-66.
  38. Jo, Wooyong, Sunder Sarang, Jeonghye Choi, and Minakshi Trivedi (2020), "Protecting consumers from themselves: Assessing consequences of usage restriction laws on online game usage and spending," Marketing Science, 39 (1), 117-33. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2019.1174
  39. Jung, Hyunwoo, Youshin Kwak, and Jeonghye Choi (2022), "How digital wallet adoption affects adopters' shopping app usage: Evidence from KakaoPay and KakaoCommerce," Journal of The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society, 47 (3), 33-48.
  40. Kim, Jeeyeon, Jui-Ting Liu, and Sue R yung Chang (2022), "Transparasocial relation between influencers and viewers on live streaming platforms: How does it affect viewer stickiness and purchanse intention?" Asia Marketing Journal, 24 (2), 39-50. https://doi.org/10.53728/2765-6500.1587
  41. Kim, Yanghee, Youjae Yi, and Hyuna Bak (2021), "Where you live matters to have the American dream: The impact of collective social capital on perceived economic mobility and the moderating role of income," Asia Marketing Journal, 23 (1), 29-62. https://doi.org/10.15830/amj.2021.23.1.29
  42. King, Gary and Richard Nielsen (2019), "Why propensity scores should not Be used for matching," Political Analysis, 27 (4), 435-54. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2019.11
  43. Le, Kien and My Nguyen (2021), "The psychological consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns," International Review of Applied Economics, 35 (2), 147-63. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2020.1853077
  44. Lu, Peiyi, Dexia Kong, and Mack Shelley (2021), "Risk perception, preventive behavior, and medical care avoidance among American older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Aging and Health, 33 (7-8), 577-84. https://doi.org/10.1177/08982643211002084
  45. McCarthy, Hannah, Henry WW. Potts, and Abigail Fisher (2021), "Physical activity behavior before, during, and after COVID-19 restrictions: Longitudinal smartphone-tracking study of adults in the United Kingdom," Journal of Medical Internet Research, 23 (2), Article e23701. https://doi.org/10.2196/23701
  46. Miles, David K., Michael Stedman, and Adrian H. Heald (2021), "Stay at home, protect the national health service, save lives": A cost benefit analysis of the lockdown in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Clinical Practice, 75 (3), Article e13674.
  47. Moschis, George P. and Gilbert A. Churchill Jr. (1978), "Consumer socialization: A theoretical and empirical analysis," Journal of Marketing Research, 15 (4), 599-609. https://doi.org/10.1177/002224377801500409
  48. Nickell, Stephen (1981), "Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects," Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1417-26.
  49. Joana, Nogueira, Bianca Gerardo, Ana Rita Silva, Paula Pinto, Rosa Barbosa, Silvia Soares, Beatriz Baptista, Carolina Paquete, Marina Cabral-Pinto, Maria M. Vilar, Mario R. Sim oes, and Sandra Freitas (2021), "Effects of estraining measures due to COVID-19: Pre-and post-lockdown cognitive status and mental health," Current Psychology, 1-10.
  50. Normington, James P. (2019), "Bayesian hierarchical differencein-differences models," United States: Doctoral dissertation, University of Minnesota.
  51. Painter, Marcus and Qiu Tian (2020), "Political beliefs affect compliance with government mandates," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 185, 688-701. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.03.019
  52. Palazzolo, Mike and Adithya Pattabhiramaiah (2021), "The minimum wage and consumer nutrition," Journal of Marketing Research, 58 (5), 845-69. https://doi.org/10.1177/00222437211023475
  53. Petherick, Anna, Rafael Goldszmidt, Eduardo B. Andrade, Rodrigo Furst, Thomas Hale, Annalena Pott, and AndrewWood (2021), "A worldwide assessment of changes in adherence to COVID-19 protective behaviours and hypothesized pandemic fatigue," Nature Human Behaviour, 5 (9), 1145-60. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01181-x
  54. Pew Research Center (2020), "Republicans, democrats move even further apart in coronavirus concerns," Pew Research Center.
  55. Poggi, Ambra (2020), "Social contacts in the post-Lockdown period," Working paper, Management and Statistics, University of Milan Bicocca Department of Economics."
  56. Presti, Sara Lo, Giulia Mattavelli, Nicola Canessa, and Claudia Gianelli (2021), "Psychological precursors of individual differences in COVID-19 lockdown adherence: Moderatedmoderation by personality and moral cognition measures," Personality and Individual Differences, 182, Article 111090. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2021.111090
  57. Rodriguez-Larrad, Ana, Asier Manas, Idoia Labayen, Marcela Gonzalez-Gross, Ander Espin, Susana Aznar, and Jon Irazusta (2021), "Impact of COVID-19 confinement on physical activity and sedentary behaviour in Spanish university students: Role of gender," International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18 (2), 369. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18020369
  58. Rogers, R.W. and S. Prentice-Dunn (1997), "Protection motivation theory," in D.S. Gochman, ed., Handbook of health behavior research 1: Personal and social determinants, Vols. 113-32. Plenum Press.
  59. Sant'Anna, H.C. Pedro, and Jun Zhao (2020), "Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators," Journal of Econometrics, 219 (1), 101-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.06.003
  60. Sheth, Jagdish (2020), "Impact of covid-19 on consumer behavior: Will the old habits return or die?" Journal of Business Research, 117, 280-3. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.05.059
  61. Singh, Surya, Mujaheed Shaikhb, Katharina Hauckc, and Marisa Miraldod (2021), "Impacts of ntroducing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 daily growth rate and compliance in the United States," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (12), Article e2021359118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021359118
  62. Skare, Marinko, Domingo Riberio Soriano, and Malgorzata Porada-Rochon (2021), "Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry," Technological forecasting and social chang," e, Vol. 163, Article 120469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120469
  63. Slater, Adam (2020), "The Economic cost of coronavirus lockdowns," Oxford Economics, 44, 17-9.
  64. Stewart, David W. and Ingrid M. Martin (1994), "Intended and unintended consequences of warning messages: A review and synthesis of empirical research," Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 13 (1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1177/074391569401300101
  65. Toker-Yildiz, Kamer, Minakshi Trivedi, Jeonghye Choi, and Sue Ryung Chang (2017), "Social interactions and monetary incentives in driving consumer repeat behavior," Journal of Marketing Research, 54 (3), 364-80. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmr.13.0482
  66. Tsai, Alexander C., Harling Guy, Zahra Reynolds, Rebecca F. Gilbert, and Mark J. Siedner (2021), "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in the United States before versus after relaxation of statewide social distancing measures," Clinical Infectious Diseases, 73 (Supplement_2), S120-6. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1502
  67. UNESCO (2021), "Education: From disruption to recovery," Paris: UNESCO.
  68. Wang, Yanwen, Michael Lewis, Cynthia Cryder, and Jim Sprigg. (2016), "Enduring effects of goal achievement and failure within customer loyalty programs: A large-scale field experiment," Marketing Science, 35 (4), 565-75. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2015.0966
  69. Wang, Xia, Chunling Yu, and Yujie Wei (2012), "Social media peer communication and impacts on purchase intentions: A consumer socialization framework," Journal of Interactive Marketing, 26 (4), 198-208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intmar.2011.11.004
  70. Warneryd, Karl-Erik (1988), "Social influence on economic behavior," Handbook of economic psychology. Springer, Dordrecht."
  71. World Health Organization. (2022), "Advice for the public: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)," situation reports.
  72. Zhang, Shunyuan, Nitin Mehta, Param Vir Singh, Kannan Srinivasan (2021), "Frontiers: Can an artificial intelligence algorithm mitigate racial economic inequality? An analysis in the context of airbnb," Marketing Science, 40 (5), 813-20. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2021.1295