Abstract
This study analyzed the survival rate of commercial districts before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 by analyzing Gangnam-gu, Seoul and Suseong-gu, Daegu as independent regions, although the background and distribution of commercial districts are similar. In the basic analysis, the size of the commercial districts was much larger in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, but it was confirmed that the distribution by industry was similar. In both regions, there were more openings than closings before the outbreak of COVID-19 in common, but as the COVID-19 outbreak occurred, the closure ratio of businesses centered on face-to-face services increased significantly. As a result of the survival analysis, it was analyzed that most industries were indifferent to the risk of closure of private institutes before Corona 19, but after the outbreak of Corona 19, it was confirmed that the risk of closure of private institutes increased, especially in Daegu, which was the initial spread of Corona 19. As a result of comparing the survival rate between regions, it was analyzed that the risk of business closure in Gangnam-gu increased relatively after the outbreak of Corona 19, confirming that the contraction in the commercial area of Seoul with a large floating population was greater.
본 연구는 상권의 형성 배경이나 분포 등이 유사하지만 지역간 독립적인 지역으로 서울 강남구와 대구 수성구를 분석 대상으로 코로나19 발생 전후 상권의 생존율을 분석하였다. 기초분석에서는 상권의 규모는 서울 강남구가 훨씬 더 크지만, 업종별 분포가 유사한 것을 확인하였다. 두 지역은 공통적으로 코로나19가 발생하기 전에는 개업이 폐업보다 많았지만, 코로나19가 발생함에 따라 대면서비스 중심의 업종의 폐업배율이 크게 증가하였다. 생존 분석결과, 코로나19 이전에는 대부분의 업종이 학원의 폐업위험과 무차별한 것으로 분석되었으나, 코로나19 발생 이후에는 학원의 폐업위험보다 증가하는 것을 확인하였고, 특히 초기 코로나19 확산지역이었던 대구에서 뚜렷하게 나타났다. 지역간 생존율을 비교를 한 결과에서는 코로나19 발생 이후 상대적으로 강남구의 폐업위험이 높아진 것으로 분석되어 유동인구가 많은 서울 상권의 위축이 더 컸음을 확인하였다.