Journal of Environmental Health Sciences (한국환경보건학회지)

Korean Society of Environmental Health (한국환경보건학회)
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Estimation of Premature Deaths due to Exposure to Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Reflecting Population Structure Change in South Korea

인구구조 변동 추세를 반영한 미세먼지 노출에 의한 조기 사망자 추정

  • Junghyun Park (Research Institute of Environmental Health and Safety (RIEHS), EH R&C Co. Ltd.) ;
  • Yong-Chul Jang (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Jong-Hyeon Lee (Research Institute of Environmental Health and Safety (RIEHS), EH R&C Co. Ltd.)
  • 박정현 (이에이치알앤씨(주) 부설 환경보건안전연구소) ;
  • 장용철 (충남대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 이종현 (이에이치알앤씨(주) 부설 환경보건안전연구소)
  • Received : 2023.11.15
  • Accepted : 2023.12.12
  • Published : 2023.12.31
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Abstract

Background: PM2.5 pollution has been a persistent problem in South Korea, with concentrations consistently exceeding World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. The aging of the population in the country further exacerbates the health impacts of PM2.5 since older adults are more susceptible to the adverse effects of air pollution. Objectives: This study aims to evaluate how the health impact (premature death) due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 in South Korea could change in the future according to the trend of change in the country's population structure. Methods: The study employs a relative risk function, which accounts for age-specific relative risks, to assess the changes in premature deaths by age and region at the average annual PM2.5 concentration for 2022 and at PM2.5 concentration improvement levels. Premature deaths were estimated using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). Results: The findings indicate that the increase in premature deaths resulting from the projected population structure changes up to 2050 would significantly outweigh the health benefits (reduction in premature deaths) compared to 2012. This is primarily attributed to the rising number of premature deaths among the elderly due to population aging. Furthermore, the study suggests that the effectiveness of the current domestic PM2.5 standard would be halved by 2050 due to the increasing impact of population aging on PM2.5-related mortality. Conclusions: The study highlights the importance of considering trends in population structure when evaluating the health benefits of air pollution reduction measures. By comparing and evaluating the health benefits in reflection of changes in population structure to the predicted PM2.5 concentration improvements at the provincial level, a more comprehensive assessment of regional air quality management strategies can be achieved.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 결과물은 환경부의 재원으로 한국환경산업기술원의 신기후체제대응 환경기술기발사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었습니다(2022003560007).

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