KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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A Study on the Response Plan by Station Area Cluster through Time Series Analysis of Urban Rail Riders Before and After COVID-19

COVID-19 전후 도시철도 승차인원 시계열 군집분석을 통한 역세권 군집별 대응방안 고찰

  • 리청시 (부산대학교 도시공학과) ;
  • 정헌영 (부산대학교 도시공학과)
  • Received : 2022.12.29
  • Accepted : 2023.02.02
  • Published : 2023.06.01
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Abstract

Due to the spread of COVID-19, the use of public transportation such as urban railroads has changed significantly since the beginning of 2020. Therefore, in this study, daily time series data for each urban railway station were collected for three years before COVID-19 and after the spread of COVID-19, and the similarity of time series analysis was evaluated through DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) distance method to derive regression centers for each cluster, and the effect of various external events such as COVID-19 on changes in the number of users was diagnosed as a time series impact detection function. In addition, the characteristics of use by cluster of urban railway stations were analyzed, and the change in passenger volume due to external shocks was identified. The purpose was to review measures for the maintenance and recovery of usage in the event of re-proliferation of COVID-19.

COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) 확산으로 2020년 초부터 도시철도 등 대중교통수단의 이용량이 크게 변동하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 COVID-19 이전과 COVID-19 확산 이후, 3년 동안 도시철도 역별 일별 시계열 자료를 수집하여 DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) 거리법을 통해 시계열 군집분석 유사도를 평가하여 군집 별 회귀 중앙치를 도출하고, COVID-19 등 여러 외부 사건이 이용객 수의 변동에 미치는 영향을 시계열 충격 탐지 함수(Outlier Detection)로 진단하였다. 또한 도시철도 역의 군집 별 이용 특성을 분석하고 또한 외부 충격에 따른 승객량의 변동을 파악하였다. 향후 COVID-19 재확산 시 이용량의 유지와 회복에 대한 방안을 검토하는 데 목적을 두었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 국토교통부의 스마트시티 혁신 인재 육성사업으로 지원되었습니다.

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