Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Quantitative impacts of climate change and human activities on the watershed runoff variation of the Geum River basin

기후변화 및 인간 활동이 금강 유역의 중권역 유출량 변동에 미치는 영향의 정량적 평가

  • Oh, Mi Ju (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kim, Dongwook (R&D Center, Burin Co., Ltd) ;
  • Lee, Joo-Heon (Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University (ERICA))
  • 오미주 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 김동욱 ((주)부린 부설연구소) ;
  • 이주헌 (중부대학교 건축토목공학부) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과)
  • Received : 2023.03.05
  • Accepted : 2023.06.07
  • Published : 2023.06.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration are changing worldwide due to climate change and human activities. Because watershed runoff is an important component of the hydrological cycle, it is important to investigate the changes in watershed runoff for water resources management. This study collected observed data of runoff, precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration in the Geum River basin as well as their synthetic data according to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, investigated the trend of hydro-meteorological variables using the Mann-Kendall test, and quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change and human activities on the watershed runoff using the climate elasticity approach and the Budyko framework. The results indicated that the relative contribution of climate change and human activity to changes in runoff varies from region to region. For example, the watershed with the greatest contribution from climate change and human activity were the Yongdam Dam (#3001) basin and the Daecheong Dam (#3008) basin, respectively. Future climate change showed an increase in precipitation and temperature in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, resulting in changes in runoff in the Geum River basin from 44.8% to 65.5%, respectively. We concluded that the effect on watershed runoff can be separated into climate change and human activities, which will be important information in establishing sustainable water resource management plans.

기후변화와 인간 활동으로 강수량, 유출량 및 증발산량 등이 변화되고 있다. 유역 유출량은 수문 순환의 매우 중요한 구성 요소이며, 기후변화와 인간 활동으로 변화되고 있는 유역 유출량에 대한 분석은 수자원 관리에 있어서 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 금강 유역 중권역의 과거 관측자료 및 미래 대표농도경로(RCP) 시나리오에 따른 유출량, 강수량, 기온 및 증발산량 자료에 대해 Mann-Kendall 검정을 이용하여 수문기상학적 변수의 추세를 분석하였고, 기후변화와 인간 활동이 금강 유역의 유출량에 미치는 영향을 기후 탄력성 접근법과 Budyko 프레임워크를 이용하여 정량적으로 평가하였다. 과거의 유출량과 미래 유출량을 분석한 결과, 중권역마다 유출량 변화에 기후변화와 인간 활동이 미치는 상대적인 기여도가 다양하게 나타났다. 예를 들어, 기후변화의 기여도가 가장 큰 중권역은 용담댐(#3001) 유역이었으며, 인간 활동의 기여도가 가장 큰 중권역은 대청댐(#3008) 유역이었다. 미래 기후변화는 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오 모두에서 강수량과 온도의 증가가 나타났다. 이러한 기후 요인의 변화는 금강 유역의 유출량 변화에 44.8%에서 65.5%까지 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 통해 유출량은 기후변화에 의한 영향뿐만 아니라 인간 활동에도 크게 영향을 받고 있으며, 이는 지속적인 수자원 관리 계획을 세우는데 중요한 정보가 될 것이다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 행정안전부 재난안전 공동연구 기술개발사업(2022-MOIS63-001)의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구입니다.

References

  1. Agbo, E.P., and Ekpo, C.M. (2021). "Trend analysis of the variations of ambient temperature using Mann-Kendall test and Sen's estimate in Calabar, southern Nigeria." Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 1734, No. 1, pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1734/1/012016
  2. Aswad, F.K., Yousif, A.A., and Ibrahim, S.A. (2020). "Trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator test for annual and monthly rainfall for Sinjar district, Iraq." The Journal of Duhok University, Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 501-508. https://doi.org/10.26682/csjuod.2020.23.2.41
  3. Dey, P., and Mishra, A. (2017). "Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 548, pp. 278-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.014
  4. Donohue, R.J., Roderick, M.L., and McVicar, T.R. (2007). "On the importance of including vegetation dynamics in Budyko's hydrological model." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 983-995. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-983-2007
  5. Gardner, L.R. (2009). "Assessing the effect of climate change on mean annual runoff." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 379, No. 3-4, pp. 351-359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.021
  6. Hong, S.Y., Oh, S.G., Suh, M.S., Lee, D.G., Ahn, J.B., and Kang, H.S. (2013). "Future climate changes over north-east Asian region simulated by RegCM4 based on the RCP scenarios." Journal of Climate Change Research, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 27-44.
  7. Jehanzaib, M., Shah, S.A., Kwon, H.H., and Kim, T.W. (2020a). "Investigating the influence of natural events and anthropogenic activities on hydrological drought in South Korea." Terrestrial, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 85-96. https://doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2019.08.13.01
  8. Jehanzaib, M., Shah, S.A., Yoo, J., and Kim, T.W. (2020b). "Investigating the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought using non-stationary approaches." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 588, 125052.
  9. Jiang, C., Xiong, L., Wang, D., Liu, P., Guo, S., and Xu, C.Y. (2015). "Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the Budyko-type equations with time-varying parameters." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 522, pp. 326-338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.060
  10. Jin, D.H., Jang, S.H., Kim, H.K., and Lee, Y.S. (2021). "A trend analysis of seasonal average temperatures over 40 years in South Korea using Mann-Kendall test and sen's slope." The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 425-433. (in Korean)
  11. Kim, H.B., Kim, S.U., and Lee, C.E. (2017). "Quantitative separation of impacting factors to runoff variation using hydrological model and hydrological sensitivity analysis." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 139-153. (in Korean)
  12. Kim, J.H., and Park, S.S. (2004). "Long-term trend analyses of water qualities in Nakdong River based on non-parametric statistical methods." Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 63-71. (in Korean)
  13. Kim, J.P., and Kim, G.S. (2011). "The impact of climate change on the trends of precipitation effectiveness ratio and runoff data in South Korea." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 44, No. 8, pp. 683-694. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.8.683
  14. Kim, K., Hwang, S., Jun, S.M., Lee, H., Kim, S., and Kang, M.S. (2022). "Development of monthly hydrological cycle assessment system using dynamic water balance model based on Budyko framework." Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, Vol. 64, No. 2, pp. 71-83. (in Korean)
  15. Kim, T.J., Kim, S.H., Lee, S.H., Kim, C.S., and Kwon, H.H. (2020). "Runoff assessment using radar rainfall and precipitation runoff modeling system model." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 53, No. 7, pp. 493-505. (in Korean)
  16. Lee, J.W., Park, J.Y., Jung, C.G., and Kim, S.J. (2019). "Evaluation of land use change impact on hydrologyand water quality health in Geum River Basin. Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 82-96. (in Korean)
  17. Liang, W., Bai, D., Wang, F., Fu, B., Yan, J., Wang, S., and Feng, M. (2015). "Quantifying the impacts of climate change and ecological restoration on streamflow changes based on a Budyko hydrological model in China's Loess Plateau." Water Resources Research, Vol. 51, No. 8, pp. 6500-6519. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016589
  18. Mwangi, H.M., Julich, S., Patil, S.D., McDonald, M.A., and Feger, K.H. (2016). "Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya." Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol. 5, pp. 244-260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.059
  19. Park, C.Y., Choi, Y.E., Kwon, Y.A., Kwon, J.I., and Lee, H.S. (2013). "Studies on changes and future projections of subtropical climate zones and extreme temperature events over South Korea using high resolution climate change scenario based on PRIDE model." Journal of the Korean Association of Regional Geographers, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 600-614. (in Korean)
  20. Reboita, M.S., da Rocha, R.P., de Souza, M.R., and Llopart, M. (2018). "Extratropical cyclones over the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean: HadGEM2-ES and RegCM4 projections." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 2866-2879. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5468
  21. Shah, S.A., Jehanzaib, M., Yoo, J., Hong, S., and Kim, T.W. (2022). Investigation of the effects of climate variability, anthropogenic activities, and climate change on streamflow using multi-model ensembles. Water, Vol. 14, No. 4, p. 512.
  22. Shahid, M., Cong, Z., and Zhang, D. (2018). "Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: a case study of the Soan River basin, Pakistan." Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 134, No. 1, pp. 205-219. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2269-4
  23. Van der Velde, Y., Vercauteren, N., Jaramillo, F., Dekker, S.C., Destouni, G., and Lyon, S.W. (2014). "Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework." Hydrological Processes, Vol. 28, No. 13, pp. 4110-4118. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9949
  24. Wang, S., Yan, M., Yan, Y., Shi, C., and He, L. (2012). "Contributions of climate change and human activities to the changes in runoff increment in different sections of the Yellow River." Quaternary International, Vol. 282, pp. 66-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.07.011
  25. Wu, J., Miao, C., Zhang, X., Yang, T., and Duan, Q. (2017). "Detecting the quantitative hydrological response to changes in climate and human activities." Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 586, pp. 328-337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.010
  26. Xin, Z., Li, Y., Zhang, L., Ding, W., Ye, L., Wu, J., and Zhang, C. (2019). "Quantifying the relative contribution of climate and human impacts on seasonal streamflow." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 574, pp. 936-945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.095
  27. Ye, X., Zhang, Q., Liu, J., Li, X., and Xu, C.Y. (2013). "Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on variation of streamflow in the Poyang Lake catchment, China." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 494, pp. 83-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.04.036
  28. Yun, J.H., Hwang, S.Y., Kim, D.H., and Kim, S.M. (2015). "Trend analysis of monthly water quality data in Nakdong River based on seasonal Mann-Kendall test." Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, Vol. 57, No. 6, pp. 153-162. (in Korean) https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2015.57.6.153
  29. Zeng, S., Zhan, C., Sun, F., Du, H., and Wang, F. (2015). "Effects of climate change and human activities on surface runoff in the Luan River basin." Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2015, pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/740239
  30. Zhang, L., Dawes, W.R., and Walker, G.R. (2001). "Response of mean annual evapotranspiration to vegetation changes at catchment scale." Water Resources Research, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 701-708. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900325
  31. Zhang, Q., Liu, J., Singh, V.P., Gu, X., and Chen, X. (2016). "Evaluation of impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow in the Poyang Lake basin, China." Hydrological Processes, Vol. 30, No. 14, pp. 2562-2576. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10814
  32. Zuo, D., Xu, Z., Wu, W., Zhao, J., and Zhao, F. (2014). "Identification of streamflow response to climate change and human activities in the Wei River Basin, China." Water Resources Management, Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 833-851. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0519-0