DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Defense Cost Sharing between Korea and the U.S.

한미 방위비 분담금 결정요인에 대한 실증분석

  • Received : 2023.10.05
  • Accepted : 2023.11.05
  • Published : 2024.01.31

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the determining factors (economy, security, domestic politics, administration, and international politics) that affect the ROK-US defense cost sharing decision. Through this, we will gain a deeper understanding of the defense cost sharing decision process and improve the efficiency of defense cost sharing calculation and execution. The scope of the study is ROK-US defense cost sharing from 1991 to 2021. The data used in the empirical analysis were various secondary data such as Ministry of National Defense, government statistical data, SIPRI, and media reports. As an empirical analysis method, multiple regression analysis using time series was used and the data was analyzed using an autoregressive model. As a result of empirical research through multiple regression analysis, we derived the following results. It was analyzed that the size of Korea's economy, that is, GDP, the previous year's defense cost share, and the number of U.S. troops stationed in Korea had a positive influence on the decision on defense cost sharing. This indicates that Korea's economic growth is a major factor influencing the increase in defense cost sharing, and that the gradual increase in the budget and the negotiation method of the Special Agreement (SMA) for cost sharing of stationing US troops in Korea play an important role. On the other hand, the political tendencies of the ruling party, North Korea's military threats, and China's defense budget were found to have no statistically significant influence on the decision to share defense costs.

한미 방위비분담금은 1991년 1,073억 원을 부담하는 것으로 시작되었고, 2021년 1조 1,833억 원을 부담하는 것으로 규모가 점차 증가하고 있으며, 방위비 분담금에 대한 국민의 관심도 높아지고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 한미 방위비 분담금 결정에 영향을 미치는 결정 요인(경제, 안보, 국내정치, 행정, 국제정치)을 실증적으로 분석하여 방위비 분담금 결정 과정을 보다 깊이 있게 이해하고, 방위비 분담금 산정과 집행의 효율성을 제고하는 것이다. 연구 범위는 1991년 ~ 2021년의 한미 방위비 분담금이다. 실증분석에 이용된 자료는 국방부, 정부 통계자료, SIPRI, 언론보도 등 다양한 2차 자료를 활용했다. 실증분석 방법으로 시계열을 활용한 다중회귀분석을 이용하고 자기회귀모형으로 데이터를 분석하였다. 다중회귀분석을 통한 실증적 연구 결과 우리는 아래와 같은 결과를 도출했다. 한국의 경제 규모, 즉 GDP와 전년도의 방위비 분담금, 그리고 주한미군의 병력 수치가 방위비 분담금 결정에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 한국의 경제 성장이 방위비 분담금 증가에 영향을 주는 주요 요인임을 나타내며, 예산의 점진적 증가와 주한미군 주둔 비용 분담 특별협정(SMA) 협상 방식이 중요한 역할을 한다는 것을 시사한다. 반면, 집권당의 정치적 성향, 북한의 군사 위협, 중국의 국방예산 등은 방위비 분담금 결정에 통계적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

References

  1. MND. 「2020 Defense White Paper」 Seoul : MND, 2020.
  2. Kwon. H. C. "The Value Estimation of the United States Armed Forces in Korea", Journal of national defense studies, 2011.
  3. Lee. S. "An empirical analysis on the determinants of Korea's cost sharing for USFK", Korea National Defense University, 2017.
  4. Defense, M. o. N. "Defense Cost Sharing", p.7.
  5. Ko. S. D. "NATO Defense Cost Sharing study", The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Vol. 12, 1998.
  6. Sung. C. K. "A Study on the Theory of Defense and Responsibility Sharing and its Determinants", The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Vol. 33, pp.200-201, 1996.
  7. DTaQ, "Dictionary of defense scientific and technical terms", 2018.
  8. Jo. I. H. "A study on the defense cost-sharing : focus on Korea-U.S. alliance and Japan-U.S. alliance", Korea National Defense University, 2015.
  9. MND. National defense policy : South Korea-U.S. Security Cooperation [cited 2022 14 June]. Available from : https://www.mnd.go.kr/user/boardList.action?boardId=I_229561&siteId=mnd&id=mnd_010702020000
  10. Park. H. R. "A Comparative Study on the Dividing of Defense Expenses in Major U.S. Forces (Korea, Japan, Germany)", NABO, 2013.
  11. Baltrusaitis. Daniel F. "Coalition Politics and the Iraq War(Determinants of Choices)", Firstforum Press, 2010.
  12. Kim. S. W. "System Polarities and Alliance Politics", University of Iowa, 2012.
  13. Jeong. W. y. "An empirical factor analysis and option-pricing-model based validity verification of defense cost sharing of the United States Forces Korea", HNU, 2017.
  14. Lee. Y. C. "An Empirical Study on the Determinants of U.S. Forces Korea's Defense Cost Share", Korea National Defense University, 2019.
  15. Kim. D. Y. "An Empirical Analysis on the Public Good Characteristics of the ROK-US Alliance", KNDU, p.38, 2019.
  16. Lim. J. O. "Analysis of determinants of defense budget Focusing on the empirical analysis of defense budget in OECD countries and Korea", 2018.
  17. Park. H. R. "Analysis of Korea-U.S. Defense Cost Sharing and Tasks(Around theory and case comparison)", Quaterly journal of defense policy studies, 2014.
  18. Public Budgeting & Financial Management, 2018.
  19. Kim. S. H. "Peripheral States'Position and Response to U.S-China Hegemon Competition", National Security Strategy Institute, 2019.
  20. Choi. S. B. "A study on the strategic value of the United States forces in South Korea(USFK)", HYU, 2015.
  21. Barry Buzan, Ole Weaver and Jaap de Wilde. "Security : A New Framework for Analysis", Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998.
  22. Bennett, Andrew, Lepgold, Joseph and Unger, Danny. "Burden-sharing in the Persian Gulf War", International Organization 48, winter 1994.
  23. Mancur, Olson Jr and Zeckhauser, Richard. " An Economic Theory of Alliances", California: The RAND corporation, 1966.
  24. Oneal, J. and Elord, M. "NATO Burden and the Forces of Change", International Studies Quarterly Vol.33 No.4, 1990.
  25. Kang. S. Y. "U.S Strategic Trends Outlook for 2021", Korea Institute for Defense, 2020.
  26. Na. S. H. "A Study on Factors of Change of Korea-US Alliance after the Cold-War", KBU, 2015.
  27. M. E. SA. "analysis on North Korean military forces : focusing on its asymmetry", KMU, 2014.
  28. Seoal G. S. "Chna's Rise and the U.S-Japan Alliance(Focusing on mutual recognition, strategies, and issues)", Journal of northeast Asia research. 2014.
  29. Shin. K. S. "Changes in the Security Environment in East Asia and the National Strategy of the United Stases", R.O.K Joint chiefs of staff, 2019.
  30. An. Y. R. "A study on the Proper Defense Sharing Level between Korea and the United States", Korea Military Academy, 1998.
  31. Lee. D. J. "A study on the regional economic impacts of military facilities reloction", KKU, 2018.
  32. Lee. S. H. "The issue of sharing defense costs between NATO and th ROK-U.S. alliance", National Security Strategy Institute, 2019.
  33. Lee. J. Y. "The New Theory of Large-Country Relations and the New Asian Security Concept(Focusing on the perception of the United States and its implications for East Asian international politics)", National Institute of Foreign Affairs and Security, 2015.
  34. Jeon. B. K. "(2021)The Prospect of the Situation in Northeast Asia and Korea's Response Plan", National Assembly Legislative Investigation Office, 2021.
  35. Kim. H. S, Park. C. Y. "A Study on North Korea's UAV Threat and Response Stance", Journal of the convergence on Culture Technology, Vol.9 No.2, pp. 227-233, March 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.17703/JCCT.2023.9.2.227
  36. Park. Y. J. "Analyzing the Defense Budgetary in the Republic of Korea with the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory", Journal of the convergence on Culture Technology, Vol.9 No.6, pp. 779-787, November 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.17703/JCCT.2023.9.6.779