Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea (한국지진공학회논문집)

Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea (한국지진공학회)
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Improving Earthquake Casualty Estimation Methods in Korea's Earthquake Disaster Response System

우리나라 지진재해대응시스템의 인명피해 예측 방법 개선 방안에 대한 연구

  • Jeong, Seong-Hoon (Department of Architectural Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Jang, Won Seok (Department of Architectural Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Lee, Jung-Han (Earthquake Safety Research Team, National Disaster Research Institute)
  • Received : 2025.09.29
  • Accepted : 2025.10.16
  • Published : 2025.11.01
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Abstract

A casualty-estimation framework has been proposed that incorporates building-scale, time-varying occupancy data (considering factors such as size, use, and time of day) into earthquake loss modeling. Information from Seumter building records is combined with KOSIS population data, and HAZUS modules are used to estimate both the baseline population and dynamic occupancy at the building level. Case studies have shown a close alignment with observed data, with no significant model flaws, indicating the framework's operational readiness. This approach moves beyond broad administrative totals to provide micro-spatial resolution suitable for Korea's rapid seismic attenuation and localized damage patterns. It enables accurate, time-sensitive casualty estimates. The framework is designed to be scalable to include additional data sources, such as mobility, transportation, and activity patterns. It supports effective evacuation and shelter planning, surge capacity management, and prioritization of retrofitting, leading to more efficient resource allocation. Furthermore, the framework provides a consistent method to integrate future data streams and quantify uncertainty without disrupting the core workflow.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 행정안전부 국립재난안전연구원의 지원("GIS 기반 개별시설 피해추정 기법 개발(3/4)", NDMI-주요-2025-08-03-02)에 의해 수행되었습니다. 이에 감사드립니다.

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