Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea (한국지진공학회논문집)

Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea (한국지진공학회)
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Probabilistic Safety Assessment of the Busan Transmission System due to Earthquakes

지진에 의한 부산 송전망의 확률론적 안전성 평가

  • Kim, Gungyu (Department of Convergence & Fusion System Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Kwag, Shinyoung (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanbat National University) ;
  • Ham, Suyun Paul (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington) ;
  • Eem, Seunghyun (Department of Convergence & Fusion System Engineering, Kyungpook National University)
  • 김건규 (경북대학교 융복합시스템공학과) ;
  • 곽신영 (한밭대학교, 토목공학과) ;
  • 함수윤 (텍사스 대학교 알링턴, 토목공학과) ;
  • 임승현 (경북대학교 융복합시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2025.06.11
  • Accepted : 2025.08.01
  • Published : 2025.11.01
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Abstract

Earthquakes can damage transmission system components, leading to extensive blackouts and disrupting essential societal functions. In urban areas, interruptions in power supply critically impact sectors such as industry, healthcare, and telecommunications, highlighting the need for quantitative and systematic analysis. Most existing research has focused on assessing seismic fragility at the individual facility level, with insufficient probabilistic safety evaluations that consider the connectivity of entire transmission systems. This study aims to quantify the connectivity-based seismic fragility and risk associated with transmission systems in Busan and its neighboring regions, Ulsan and Gyeongnam. To achieve this, a network model of Busan's transmission system was developed using OpenStreetMap data. Damage probabilities were calculated using seismic fragility curves from HAZUS and reports from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. Damage state-specific risks were then quantitatively assessed by combining these fragility values with Busan's seismic hazard curves. The results showed High Confidence and Low Probability of Failure values ranging from 0.049 g (Slight) to 0.273 g (Complete), with median fragility values ranging from 0.143 g (Slight) to 0.605 g (Complete). The annual risk for each damage state was determined to be 4.151×10-4/yr, 1.177×10-4/yr, 3.667×10-5/yr, and 9.391×10-6/yr. This research quantitatively assesses the seismic fragility of Busan's transmission system, providing a practical basis for disaster response strategies and risk-informed decision-making related to regional electric power infrastructure.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문은 2025학년도 경북대학교 연구년 교수 연구비에 의하여 연구되었음. 또한 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행한 연구과제입니다(No. RS-2022-00154571)

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