한국지리정보학회지 (Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies)

  • 제28권2호
  • /
  • Pages.31-55
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  • 2025
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  • 1226-9719(pISSN)
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  • 2287-6952(eISSN)
한국지리정보학회 (The Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies)
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Fuzzy AHP를 활용한 목조 문화유산의 기후변화 잠재적 영향 평가 : 풍수해·산사태 중심으로

Assessment of Climate Change Potential Impacts on Wooden Cultural Heritage Using Fuzzy AHP : Focusing on Flood and Wind Hazards and Landslides

  • Jeong Min, Lee (Dept. of Urban Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Jung Eun, Kang (Dept. of Urban Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Yoo Jin, Huh (Dept. of Architecture, Pusan National University)
  • 투고 : 2025.03.27
  • 심사 : 2025.05.02
  • 발행 : 2025.06.30
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초록

본 연구는 기후변화에 따른 목조 문화유산의 잠재적 영향을 평가하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 기후변화 시나리오 기반의 공간 분석과 정량적 지표 평가 기법(Fuzzy AHP 등)을 연계하여 활용하였다. 잠재적 영향은 기후노출과 민감도의 결합으로 정의되며, 풍수해와 산사태를 주요 재해 유형으로 선정하였다. 전국의 목조 문화유산을 대상으로 RCP 8.5 시나리오를 반영해 현재와 미래 중기(2050년), 미래 후기(2100년)의 잠재적 영향 등급을 분석하고, 시점 간 등급 변화를 잠재적 영향 매트릭스(Impact Matrix)로 시각화하였다. 분석 결과, 풍수해는 제주도와 전라남도 등 남해안 지역에, 산사태는 강원도, 경상권, 전라남도 등 내륙 산악 지역에 집중되었으며, 순천 선암사, 경주 불국사, 해인사 장경판전 등 고위험 문화유산이 확인되었다. 특히 풍수해와 산사태 모두에서 위험 영향 등급이 상승한 중복 위험 목조 문화유산 7개가 식별되었으며, 이는 기후변화로 인한 복합 재해에 취약한 문화유산을 우선적으로 관리할 수 있는 전략 수립의 필요성을 시사한다. 본 연구의 평가 기법은 문화유산 보호를 위한 우선순위 기반의 관리 체계 수립에 활용 가능한 기초자료로서 의의가 있다.

This study aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on wooden cultural heritage in Korea. To this end, spatial analysis based on climate change scenarios was combined with a quantitative indicator evaluation method using Fuzzy AHP. Potential impact was defined as a combination of climate exposure and sensitivity, and storm and landslide hazards were selected as the primary disaster types. Climate exposure and sensitivity indicators were constructed using proxy variables derived from previous studies, and their relative weights were determined through expert surveys. Applying the RCP 8.5 scenario, the analysis evaluated changes in the potential impact grades for all wooden heritage sites nationwide at three time points: present, mid-century (2050), and late-century (2100). The degree of change was visualized using a Impact Matrix. Results show that storm-related risk impacts were concentrated in southern coastal regions such as Jeju and Jeollanam-do, while landslide risk impacts were widespread across mountainous inland areas including Gangwon, Gyeongsang, and Jeolla provinces. High-risk wooden cultural heritage sites such as Seonamsa Temple (Suncheon), Bulguksa Temple (Gyeongju), and the Janggyeong Panjeon of Haeinsa Temple (Hapcheon) were identified. In particular, seven sites were found to be vulnerable to both disaster types, indicating the need for prioritized and site-specific management strategies. The proposed assessment framework provides a spatially explicit and quantitative basis for identifying climate-vulnerable cultural heritage and offers a foundation for developing risk-informed conservation strategies under long-term climate change scenarios.

키워드

과제정보

본 연구는 환경부「기후변화특성화대학원사업」과 환경부의 재원으로 한국환경산업기술원이 추진하는「신기후체제 대응 환경기술개발사업」의 지원을 받아 수행되었습니다. (RS-2022-KE002124)

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