Korean journal of applied entomology (한국응용곤충학회지)

Korean Society of Applied Entomology (한국응용곤충학회)
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Prediction of Potential Habitat of Hyphantria cunea Under Climate Change in Korea

기후변화에 따른 미국흰불나방의 한국 내 잠재 서식지 예측

  • Ji-won Jeong (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Taechul Park (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Saebom Eom (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Jung-Joon Park (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University)
  • 정지원 (경상국립대학교 식물의학과) ;
  • 박태철 (경상국립대학교 식물의학과) ;
  • 엄새봄 (경상국립대학교 식물의학과) ;
  • 박정준 (경상국립대학교 식물의학과)
  • Received : 2025.02.11
  • Accepted : 2025.03.17
  • Published : 2025.06.01
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Abstract

This study aimed to predict the habitat suitability for the fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea) in South Korea by comprehensively considering key environmental factors, such as climate change and land cover change. First, the MaxEnt model was constructed using global occurrence data to simulate changes in habitat suitability under climate change scenarios. Subsequently, the potential risk areas (PRAs) of Hyphantria cunea in forests and urban areas were analyzed based on land cover changes. The results indicated that suitable habitats for H. cunea are likely to be distributed across most regions of South Korea, excluding the Taebaek Mountain Range and the high-altitude areas of Hallasan Mountain. Under the integrated Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario combinations, the PRA for H. cunea was projected to increase from 66,934 km2 to 67,363 km2 by the 2055s and 2085s under the SSP1. In contrast, under SSP3, the PRA showed a significant decrease from 66,676 km2 to 59,696 km2. However, in all scenarios, the PRA percentage for H. cunea still exceeded 80% of the total land area, highlighting the necessity for continuous control and management of H. cunea. This study underscores the need for sustained management of the widespread H. cunea population in South Korea and provides foundational data for monitoring, early warning, prevention, control, and management of H. cunea. Furthermore, by comprehensively analyzing the effects of climate change and land use change on habitat suitability for H. cunea, the findings are expected to contribute to the development of effective control and management strategies.

본 연구는 미국흰불나방(Hyphantria cunea)의 국내 잠재 서식지 변화를 분석하기 위해 기후 변화와 토지 피복 변화라는 주요 환경 요인을 종합적으로 고려하여 서식 적합도를 예측하였다. 먼저, 전 지구적 출현 데이터를 바탕으로 MaxEnt 모델을 구축하여 기후 변화 시나리오에 따른 국내 서식 적합도 변화를 모의하였다. 이후, 토지 피복 변화에 따른 산림 및 시가지 내 미국흰불나방의 PRA를 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 미국흰불나방의 적합 서식지는 태백산맥과 한라산 고산지대를 제외한 한국 대부분 지역에 분포할 것으로 예측되었다. SSP에 기반한 통합 기후-토지 피복 시나리오에서 미국흰불나방의 PRA는 SSP1-2.6 시나리오에서는 2055s, 2085s가 각각 66,934 km2에서 67,363 km2로 증가한 반면, SSP3-7.0에서는 PRA는 66,676 km2에서 59,696 km2로 크게 감소하는 결과가 나타났다. 그러나 모든 시나리오에서 미국흰불나방 PRA 백분율이 여전히 전 국토면적의 80%를 초과하기 때문에, 미국흰불나방에 대한 지속적인 방제 및 관리가 필요함을 시사한다. 본 연구는 국내에 광범위하게 퍼진 미국흰불나방 개체군의 지속적인 관리가 필요함을 강조하며, 이를 토대로 미국흰불나방의 모니터링, 조기 경보, 예방 및 통제, 관리를 위한 기초 자료를 제공한다. 또한, 기후 변화와 토지 이용 변화가 미국흰불나방의 서식 적합도에 미치는 영향을 종합적으로 분석함으로써, 효과적인 방제 및 관리 전략 수립에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 산림청(한국임업진흥원) 산림과학기술 연구개발사업(RS-2024-00405244)의 지원을 받았음.

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