• Title, Summary, Keyword: 명절효과

Search Result 10, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

RegARIMA 모형을 이용한 음력 명절효과의 검정에 관한 연구

  • Mun, Gwon-Sun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
    • /
    • /
    • pp.73-77
    • /
    • 2005
  • 본 논문은 시계열에 내재된 설${\cdot}$추석 등 음력 명절효과의 존재를 검정하기 위해 RegARIMA 모형의 잔차에 대한 t-검정 통계량을 제시하였으며 Box-plot에 의한 그래프적 진단을 시도하였다. 제시된 t-검정 결과를 X-12-ARIMA의 AICC-사전검정 및 RegARIMA 모형에 의해 추정된 명절효과 회귀계수의 t-값과 비교하였다. 사용된 명절효과 변수는 Bell과 Hillmer(1983)의 명절효과 변수이다.

  • PDF

Study on the National Holiday Effect of B2C Online Mobile Phone Market in China (중국 B2C 온라인 핸드폰 판매량의 명절효과에 대한 연구)

  • Hong, Jaewon;Kwak, Youngsik;Nam, Yongsik;Nam, Yoonjung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
    • /
    • /
    • pp.189-190
    • /
    • 2019
  • 본 연구에서는 명절이 소비자들의 제품 교체주기에 영향을 미치는지를 탐색하기 위해 중국 온라인 휴대폰 판매 데이터를 바탕으로 명절 시기별 구매간격 차이검증을 통해 실증적으로 분석하고자 하였다. 분석결과, 명절시점과 평상시점 간에 제품 구매간격의 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 명절시점이 평상시점보다 제품 교체주기가 짧은 것으로 나타나 명절효과가 있음을 증명하였다. 한편, 춘절, 노동절, 국경절 등 명절유형 간 제품 구매간격의 차이는 나타나지 않았다. 이는 기업이 명절시점을 활용하여 교체 가능성이 높은 소비자를 선별적으로 공략한다면 더 높은 성과를 얻을 수 있음을 시사한다. 본 연구의 결과는 실무적으로 볼 때 기업으로 하여금 교체확률이 높은 시기에 마케팅을 집중할 수 있도록 할 수 있을 것이며, 학술적으로는 제품 구매 간격에 영향을 미치는 구매시점 효과 중 명절효과를 온라인상의 고관여 제품에 적용하여 탐구했다는 공헌점이 있다.

  • PDF

A Study for Shapes of Filter on the Prior Adjustment of the Holiday Effect (명절효과 사전조정을 위한 파급유형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kee-Whan;Shin, Hyun-Gyu
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.275-284
    • /
    • 2010
  • In this study, we introduce filters that used for the prior adjustment of the holiday effect in seasonal adjustment. And we propose new filters having more various and flexible patterns than conventional ones. Under the practical assumption that patterns of effects before and after the holiday are different, we compare adjustment effect of the proposed filters and the existing ones. In comparison study, we estimate the effect from all possible combinations of shapes of filter by RegARIMA. And then, to adjust holiday effect, we apply the estimated results to time series data of industrial production and shipment index data in South Korea.

X11ARIMA Procedure (한국형 X11ARIMA 프로시져에 관한 연구)

  • 박유성;최현희
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.11 no.2
    • /
    • pp.335-350
    • /
    • 1998
  • X11ARIMA is established on the basis of X11 which is one of smoothing approach in time series area and this procedure was introduced by Bureau of Census of United States and developed by Dagum(1975). This procedure had been updated and adjusted by Dagum(1988) with 174 economic index of North America and has been used until nowadays. Recently, X12ARIMA procedure has been studied by William Bell et.al. (1995) and Chen. & Findly(1995) whose approaches adapt adjusting outliers, Trend-change effects, seasonal effect, arid Calender effect. However, both of these procedures were implemented for correct adjusting the economic index of North America. This article starts with providing some appropriate and effective ARIMA model for 102 indexes produced by national statistical office in Korea; which consists of production(21), shipping(27), stock(27), and operating rate index(21). And a reasonable smoothing method will be proposed to reflect the specificity of Korean economy using several moving average model. In addition, Sulnal(lunar happy new year) and Chusuk effects will be extracted from the indexes above and both of effects reflect contribution of lunar calender effect. Finally, we will discuss an alternative way to estimate holiday effect which is similar to X12ARIMA procedure in concept of using both of ARIMA model and Regression model for the best fitness.

  • PDF

A Development of Time-Series Model for City Gas Demand Forecasting (도시가스 수요량 예측을 위한 시계열 모형 개발)

  • Choi, Bo-Seung;Kang, Hyun-Cheol;Lee, Kyung-Yun;Han, Sang-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1019-1032
    • /
    • 2009
  • The city gas demand data has strong seasonality. Thus, the seasonality factor is the majority for the development of forecasting model for city gas supply amounts. Also, real city gas demand amounts can be affected by other factors; weekday effect, holiday effect, the number of validity day, and the number of consumptions. We examined the degree of effective power of these factors for the city gas demand and proposed a time-series model for efficient forecasting of city gas supply. We utilize the liner regression model with autoregressive regression errors and we have excellent forecasting results using real data.

Comparative analysis on status of events and importance-performance analysis (IPA) between industry and school foodservices (사업체급식소와 학교급식소의 이벤트 실태 및 이벤트에 대한 중요도-수행도 분석 비교)

  • Song, Hyun Jin;Rho, Jeong Ok
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
    • /
    • v.47 no.6
    • /
    • pp.452-462
    • /
    • 2014
  • Purpose: The purpose of the study was to evaluate the status of events and importance-performance analysis (IPA) between industry and school foodservices. Methods: The study subjects were dietitians in industry foodservices (n = 73) and nutrition teachers in school foodservices (n = 135) in the Jeonbuk area. Demographic characteristics, status of events, and problems of implementing events were assessed using a self-administered questionnaire. Results: Approximately 67% of industry foodservices had implemented an event a month, whereas 40.7% of school foodservices did not implement events for students. The type of events that industry and school foodservices had implemented most frequently were Sambok event, Dongji event, Daeboreum event, Spring-Namul event, and Chuseok event. The industry foodservices had significantly higher average scores for performance of events than those of the school foodservices (p < 0.001). In the Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA), high importance and high performance (A area: doing great) in industry foodservices were seasonal events, traditional festival day events, anniversary events, traditional seasonal events, and personal memory events, whereas in school foodservices were traditional festival day events, traditional seasonal events, school events, and environment events. Conclusion: These results showed that events are important for the increase in customer satisfaction. Therefore, it is necessary to consider educational programs on event implementation for dietitians and employees in industry and school foodservices.

KTX passenger demand forecast with multiple intervention seasonal ARIMA models (다중개입 계절형 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 KTX 수송수요 예측)

  • Cha, Hyoyoung;Oh, Yoonsik;Song, Jiwoo;Lee, Taewook
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.139-148
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study proposed a multiple intervention time series model to predict KTX passenger demand. In order to revise the research of Kim and Kim (Korean Society for Railway, 14, 470-476, 2011) considering only the intervention of the second phase of Gyeong-bu before November of 2011, we adopted multiple intervention seasonal ARIMA models to model the time series data with additional interventions which occurred after November of 2011. Through the data analysis, it was confirmed that the effects of various interventions such as Gyeong-bu and Ho-nam 2 phase, outbreak of MERS and national holidays, which affected the KTX transportation demand, are successfully explained and the prediction accuracy could be quite improved significantly.

Evaluation of Importance and Performance by Dietitians about Events Marketing at School Foodservice Operations in Busan (부산지역 학교급식 영양사의 이벤트 마케팅에 대한 중요도와 수행도 평가)

  • Lee, Kyung-A
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
    • /
    • v.38 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1794-1800
    • /
    • 2009
  • This research was performed to acquire dietitians' attitudes toward events marketing at school foodservice operations in the Busan area. A total of 359 questionnaires were distributed to dietitians employed at school foodservice operations in Busan from July 1 to 31, 2006 (response rate: 93%). All dietitians assessed the importance and performance of event marketing at 3.39/5.00 and 2.78/5.00. The elementary and high school had significantly (p<0.01) higher average scores of performance of event marketing than those of the middle school. The contract managed foodservices had significantly (p<0.01) higher average scores of performance of event marketing than those of the independent managed foodservices. In the Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA), high importance and high performance (B area: doing great) were seasonal event, traditional festival day event, subdivisions of the seasonal event, environment event, school event, the day event and high importance whereas low performance (A area: focus here) was health event. Event marketing increased customer satisfaction and confidence. Therefore, these results suggest that there may be a need to implement special events at school foodservice in order to increase students' satisfaction.

Detour Behavior on the Expressway using Route Travel Data (경로형 통행데이터 기반 고속도로 우회행태 분석)

  • Lee, Sujin;Son, Sanghoon;Kim, Hyungjoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.58-70
    • /
    • 2020
  • Detour behavior on the expressway means that the driver uses the local road by passing the part of the expressway which is stagnant at the time of the traffic demand such as holidays. Since the detour rate was estimated through the survey at toll gate in the past, there was a difficulty in estimating the actual detour rate due to the small sample of the survey. In this study, we use DSRC-based route travel data to conduct empirical studies on detour patterns such as the estimation of actual detour rate, the improvement of travel time using detour road, and the correlation between traffic conditions on the expressway and detour rate. On the day of Chuseok and the day before Chuseok, the analysis of Giheung-DongtanIC→OsanIC and Seopyeongtaek IC→Walgott JC showed that the use of detour roads increased gradually during the congestion of the main line and travel time reduced when using detour roads, However, when the traffic congestion of the main line is not severe, the travel time increases when using the detour roads. The correlation between the traffic condition of the expressway and the actual detour rate has a negative correlation, which is consistent with the congestion pattern of the main line. The results of this study can be used to overcome limitations of detour pattern research based on surveys in the past and to establish a detour strategy for expressway sections where traffic demand is concentrated.

Studies on the Improvement of the Fishing Efficiency of Purse Seine in the Sea Area of Cheju Island -The Changes of Seine Volume and Tension in the Purseline During Pursing- (제주도 주변해역 선망의 어획성능 향상에 관한 연구 -짐줄 체결 중 선망의 용적과 짐줄의 장력 변화 -)

  • 김석종
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
    • /
    • v.35 no.2
    • /
    • pp.93-101
    • /
    • 1999
  • A simple experimental method was used in an attempt to realize the elevation of the fishing ability of purse seine in the sea area of Cheju Island, the changes of seine volume and tension in the purseline during pursing. Experiments carried out on the six types simplified reduced model seines which were made of knotless nettings. The nettings were woven in different leg length 4.3, 5.0, 5.5, 6.0, 6.6 and 7.7mm of polyester 28 tex two threads two-ply twine, and each of the seines were named I, II, III, IV, V and Ⅵ seine. Dimension of seine models were 450cm for corkline and 85cmfor seine depth, each seines rigged up 160g of float for a floatline and 50g (underwater weight) of lead for a leadline. These model purse seines were made of the scale of 1/200 of its full scale, a 120 ton in the near sea of Cheju Island. Designing and testing for the model purse seines were based on the Tauti's law. Experiments were measured in the observation channel of a flume tank at the static conditions set up shooting and pursing equipments. Motion of purse seine during purse line was recorded by the two sets video camera for VTR which were placed in top and front of the model seine. The reading coordinate of seine volume carried out by the video digitization system, disk data for the purseline tension. An analysis were performed on the changes seine volume and tension in the purseline during pursing. The results obtained were as follows: 1. The seine volume during pursing was largest for Ⅵ seine with smallest d/l followed by V, IV, III, II and I seines, and tension in the purseline was small. 2. Seine volume during pursing can be expressed by the following equation; CVt=l-EXP[{2.79 (d/l)+0.35}t-33.37 (d/l) + 0.57] Where CVt is volume ratio, d is twine diameter, l is leg length and t is pursing time (sec). 3. Tension in the purse line during pursing can be expressed by the following equation; T= 1- EXP {0.57t + 13.36 (d/l)+2.97} Where T is tension (kg) in the purseline during pursing.

  • PDF