• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.11-13
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• 2013

Background: Esophagus cancer, the third most common gastrointestinal cancer overall, demonstrates high incidence in parts of Iran. The counties of Iran vary in size, shape and population size. The aim of this study was to account for spatial support with Area-to-Area (ATA) Poisson Kriging to increase precision of parameter estimates and yield correct variance and create maps of disease rates. Materials and Methods: This study involved application/ecology methodology, illustrated using esophagus cancer data recorded by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (in the Non-infectious Diseases Management Center) of Iran. The analysis focused on the 336 counties over the years 2003-2007. ATA was used for estimating the parameters of the map with SpaceStat and ArcGIS9.3 software for analysing the data and drawing maps. Results: Northern counties of Iran have high risk estimation. The ATA Poisson Kriging approach yielded variance increase in large sparsely populated counties. So, central counties had the most prediction variance. Conclusions: The ATAPoisson kriging approach is recommended for estimating parameters of disease mapping since this method accounts for spatial support and patterns in irregular spatial areas. The results demonstrate that the counties in provinces Ardebil, Mazandaran and Kordestan have higher risk than other counties.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권10호
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• pp.4587-4590
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• 2016

Background: In many countries gastric cancer has the highest incidence among the gastrointestinal cancers and is the second most common cancer in Iran. The aim of this study was to identify and map high risk gastric cancer regions at the county-level in Iran. Methods: In this study we analyzed gastric cancer data for Iran in the years 2003-2010. Area-to-area Poisson kriging and Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) spatial models were applied to smoothing the standardized incidence ratios of gastric cancer for the 373 counties surveyed in this study. The two methods were compared in term of accuracy and precision in identifying high risk regions. Result: The highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to area-to-area Poisson kriging was in Meshkinshahr county in Ardabil province in north-western Iran (2.4,SD=0.05), while the highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to the BYM model was in Ardabil, the capital of that province (2.9,SD=0.09). Conclusion: Both methods of mapping, ATA Poisson kriging and BYM, showed the gastric cancer incidence rate to be highest in north and north-west Iran. However, area-to-area Poisson kriging was more precise than the BYM model and required less smoothing. According to the results obtained, preventive measures and treatment programs should be focused on particular counties of Iran.