• Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.81-116
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• 2012

Transition toward sustainablity being in progress in a variety of areas including climate, energy, household, transportation. This study analyzed system transition and backcasting of its management with case of sustainable transportation, foods, household system transition in the Netherlands. Backcasting has become a popular approach for sustainability taking a more reflexive perspective and looking back to the participatory experiments. In the Netherlands, participatory backcasting utilized as s innovative approach for long-term strategy for sustainability, based on stakeholder involvement, construction of normative sustainable futures, stakeholder leaning. In this study, we can be understood that transition management requires the participation and contribution of business, government, research and the public & public interest groups and backcating is tool leading to a sustainable future vision, stakeholder involvement. To create a new path toward sustainablity, it requires integrated consideration of related policy perspectives and participatory backcasting aiming at system innovations for influencing transitions.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.9 no.7
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• pp.33-40
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• 2018

The convergence of intelligent information technology and energy technology affects many stakeholders because it involves not only technology itself but also social, institutional and organizational changes. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a back-casting approach to create a new industry that deviates from the path dependence on the traditional energy industry. This study examines the changes in the future energy industry that intelligence information technology will bring, and then we derived the future energy service model that can satisfy the energy policy goals from the national perspective and the interests of each stakeholder at the same time. After that, we analyzed the technical prerequisites for the realization of future energy services and presented the specific configuration technology and the areas that require R&D investment at present.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.134.2-134.2
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• 2011

정부의 제1차 국가에너지기본계획(국무총리실 외. 2008)과 제4, 5차 전력수급기본계획(지식경제부 2008, 2010)을 바탕으로 장기 에너지 시스템 분석모형인 LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) 모형을 이용하여 2050년까지 발전 부문에서 재생가능 에너지의 확대를 통한 에너지 전환 시나리오에 대하여 정량적인 분석을 하였다. 기준 시나리오, 정부 정책 시나리오, 지속가능 사회 시나리오에 대한 발전량 및 설비 구성, 수입의존도, 연료 다양성 등 에너지 시스템에 대해 분석하는 한편, 온실가스, 대기오염물질, 온배수, 토지이용 등 환경영향을 검토하고, 시나리오별 총 비용을 분석하였다. 본 연구의 의의는 영국, 독일, 미국, 일본 등 선진국에서 전력 장기 시나리오들을 검토하는 한편, 국내 발전 부문 재생가능 에너지 전환의 가능성과 의미에 대해 화두를 던지고자 함이다.

• Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.107-144
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• 2012

Recently concerns on the energy future are rising in Korea after nuclear disaster of Fukushima in Japan last year. However, even after Fukushima disaster Korean government keeps on insisting nuclear oriented energy policy. Contrary to it, some of civil society's organizations(CSOs) including environment groups and progressive political parties are making strong voices for phase-out nuclear. As a way of phase-out nuclear activity researcher groups based on CSOs have presented several alternative energy scenarios against the official government scenario so that contest between the two senarios seems not to be avoided. This article aims to analyse the politics of expertise around energy scenarios in Korea by highlighting differences between two scenarios of government and CSOs in terms of epistemological and methodological base, value orientation, institutional foundation, and the socio-political contexts of scenarios. Our research shows that government's energy scenario is based on scientific-positivist epistemology, firm belief in value neutrality and forecasting method, and is built by neo-classical economists at government-sponsored research institutes in accordance with the 'Business As Usual' approach. In contrast, alternative scenarios of CSOs can be said to be based on epistemological constructivism, value oriented attitudes and backcasting method, and be built by collaboration of researchers and activists with different academic and social backgrounds after Fukushima nuclear disaster.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.57-78
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• 2006

Now post 2012 greenhouse gas reduction commitment being discussed, studies about long-term GHG reduction scenarios toward 2050 have actively been worked separately from 5 years short-term approach. In this paper, background, temperature target, $CO_2$ concentration target, national emission target, and approach of long-term reduction scenarios toward 2050 particularly in European countries such as UK, Germany, France, Netherlands et al. are reviewed. After comparing GDP and emission indices between Developed (European) countries and Korea, some implications of long-term GHG reduction scenarios are deduced. Acting early owing to uncertainty in climate change impact and technology development rather than delaying reduction activity owing to scientific uncertainty in climate change is needed. Providing our society's vision of climate change and government's explicit direction through long-term GHG reduction target setting toward 2050 and economic units' preparing for those are needed.