• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.487-494
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• 2010

Cooked pork can be easily contaminated with Staphylococcus aureus during carriage and serving after cooking. This study was performed to develop growth prediction models of S. aureus to assure the safety of cooked pork. The Baranyi and Gompertz primary predictive models were compared. These growth models for S. aureus in cooked pork were developed at storage temperatures of 5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$. The specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) values were calculated. The Baranyi model, which displayed a $R^2$ of 0.98 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.27, was more compatible than the Gompertz model, which displayed 0.84 in both $R^2$ and RMSE. The Baranyi model was used to develop a response surface secondary model to indicate changes of LT and SGR values according to storage temperature. The compatibility of the developed model was confirmed by calculating $R^2$, $B_f$, $A_f$, and RMSE values as statistic parameters. At 5, 15 and $25^{\circ}C$, $R^2$ was 0.88, 0.99 and 0.99; RMSE was 0.11, 0.24 and 0.10; $B_f$ was 1.12, 1.02 and 1.03; and $A_f$ was 1.17, 1.03 and 1.03, respectively. The developed predictive growth model is suitable to predict the growth of S. aureus in cooked pork, and so has potential in the microbial risk assessment as an input value or model.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.25-30
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• 2011

In this study, predictive mathematical models were developed to predict the kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes growth in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables, which is the most popular ready-to-eat food in the world, as a function of temperature (4, 10, 20 and $30^{\circ}C$). At the specified storage temperatures, the primary growth curve fit well ($r^2$=0.916~0.981) with a Gompertz and Baranyi equation to determine the specific growth rate (SGR). The Polynomial model for natural logarithm transformation of the SGR as a function of temperature was obtained by nonlinear regression (Prism, version 4.0, GraphPad Software). As the storage temperature decreased from $30^{\circ}C$ to $4^{\circ}C$, the SGR decreased, respectively. Polynomial model was identified as appropriate secondary model for SGR on the basis of most statistical indices such as mean square error (MSE=0.002718 by Gompertz, 0.055186 by Baranyi), bias factor (Bf=1.050084 by Gompertz, 1.931472 by Baranyi) and accuracy factor (Af=1.160767 by Gompertz, 2.137181 by Baranyi). Results indicate L. monocytogenes growth was affected by temperature mainly, and equation was developed by Gompertz model (-0.1606+$0.0574^*Temp$+$0.0009^*Temp^*Temp$) was more effective than equation was developed by Baranyi model (0.3502-$0.0496^*Temp$+$0.0022^*Temp^*Temp$) for specific growth rate prediction of L.monocytogenes in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.899-906
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• 2011

The objectives of this study were to apply the Baranyi model to predict the growth of natural microflora in liver sausage with added kimchi powder. Kimchi powder was added to the meat products at 0, 1, 2, and 3% levels. To determine and quantify the natural microflora in the meat products, total plate counts and counts of anaerobic bacteria and lactic acid bacteria were examined throughout the 28 d of storage. The obtained data were applied to the Baranyi growth model. The indices used for comparing predicted and observed data were $B_f$, $A_f$, root mean square error (RMSE), and $R^2$. Twelve predictive models were characterized by a high $R^2$ and small RMSE. The Baranyi model was useful in predicting natural microflora levels in these meat products with added kimchi powder during storage.

• Journal of Preventive Veterinary Medicine
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.143-147
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• 2018

The present study aimed to develop growth prediction models of Listeria monocytogenes in processed meat products, such as mixed pressed hams, to perform accurate microbial risk assessments. Considering cold storage temperatures and the amount of time in the stages of consumption after opening, the growth of L. monocytogenes was determined as a function of temperature at 0, 5, 10, and $15^{\circ}C$, and time at 0, 1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. Based on the results of these measurements, a Baranyi model using the primary model was developed. The input parameters of the Baranyi equation in the variable temperature for polynomial regression as a secondary model were developed: $SGR=0.1715+0.0199T+0.0012T^2$, $LT=5.5730-0.3215T+0.0051T^2$ with $R^2$ values 0.9972 and 0.9772, respectively. The RMSE (Root mean squared error), $B_f$ (bias factor), and $A_f$ (accuracy factor) on the growth prediction model were determined to be 0.30, 0.72, and 1.50 in SGR (specific growth rate), and 0.10, 0.84, and 1.35 in LT (lag time), respectively. Therefore, the model developed in this study can be used to determine microorganism growth in the stages of consumption of mixed pressed hams and has potential in microbial risk assessments (MRAs).

• Food Science and Biotechnology
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.1352-1356
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• 2008

Bootstrap method, a computer-intensive statistical technique to estimate the distribution of a statistic was applied to deal with uncertainty and variability of the experimental data in stochastic prediction modeling of microbial growth on a chill-stored food. Three different bootstrapping methods for the curve-fitting to the microbial count data were compared in determining the parameters of Baranyi and Roberts growth model: nonlinear regression to static version function with resampling residuals onto all the experimental microbial count data; static version regression onto mean counts at sampling times; dynamic version fitting of differential equations onto the bootstrapped mean counts. All the methods outputted almost same mean values of the parameters with difference in their distribution. Parameter search according to the dynamic form of differential equations resulted in the largest distribution of the model parameters but produced the confidence interval of the predicted microbial count close to those of nonlinear regression of static equation.

• Preventive Nutrition and Food Science
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.364-369
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• 2011

Levels of carbon dioxide gas, a metabolite of microbial growth, have been reported to parallel the onset of microbial spoilage and may be used as a convenient index for a packaged food's shelf life. This study aimed to establish a kinetic model of $CO_2$ production from perishable food for the potential use for shelf life control in the food supply chain. Aerobic bacterial count and package $CO_2$ concentration were measured during the storage of seasoned pork meat at four temperatures (0, 5, 10 and $15^{\circ}C$), and their interrelationship was investigated to establish a mathematical model. The microbial growth at constant temperature was described by using model of Baranyi and Roberts. $CO_2$ production from the stored food could be explained by taking care of its yield and maintenance factors linked to the microbial growth. By establishing the temperature dependence of the microbial growth and $CO_2$ yield factor, $CO_2$ partial pressure or concentration in package headspace could be estimated to a limited extent, which is helpful for controlling the shelf life under constant and dynamic temperature conditions. Application and efficacy of the model needs to be improved with further refinement in the model.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.49-54
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• 2010

The aim of this research was to estimate the effect of temperature and develop predictive models for the growth of total viable cells (TVC) and Escherichia coli (EC) on chicken breast under aerobic and various temperature conditions. The primary models were determined by Baranyi model. The secondary models for the specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT), as a function of storage temperature, were developed by the polynomial model. The initial contamination level of chicken breasts was around 4.3 Log CFU/g of TVC and 1.0 Log CFU/g of E. coli. During 216 h of storage, SGR of TVC showed 0.05, 0.15, and 0.54 Log CFU/g/h at 5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$. Also, the growth tendency of EC was similar to those of TVC. As storage temperature increased, the values of SGR of microorganisms increased dramatically and the values of LT decreased inversely. The predicted growth models with experimental data were evaluated by $B_f$, $A_f$, RMSE, and $R^2$. These values indicated that these developed models were reliable to express the growth of TVC and EC on chicken breasts. The temperature changes of distribution and showcase in markets might affect the growth of microorganisms and spoilage of chicken breast mainly.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.108-113
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• 2015

The purpose of this study was to develop predictive models for the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in pork Bulgogi at various storage temperatures. A two-strain mixture of L. monocytogenes (ATCC 15313 and isolated from pork Bulgogi) was inoculated on pork Bulgogi at 3 Log CFU/g. L. monocytogenes strains were enumerated using general plating method on Listeria selective medium. The inoculated samples were stored at 5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$ for primary models. Primary models were developed using the Baranyi model equations, and the maximum specific growth rate was shown to be dependent on storage temperature. A secondary model of growth rate as a function of storage temperature was also developed. As the storage temperature increased, the lag time (LT) values decreased dramatically and the specific growth rate of L. monocytogenes increased. The mathematically predicted growth parameters were evaluated based on the modified bias factor ($B_f$), accuracy factor ($A_f$), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination ($R^2$), and relative errors (RE). These values indicated that the developed models were reliably able to predict the growth of L. monocytogenes in pork Bulgogi. Hence, the predictive models may be used to assess microbiological hygiene in the meat supply chain as a function of storage temperature.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.289-295
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• 2009

The aim of this research was to develop predictive models for the growth of spoilage bacteria (total viable cells, Pseudomonas spp., and lactic acid bacteria) on frankfurters and to estimate the shelf-life of frankfurters under aerobic conditions at various storage temperatures (5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$). The primary models were determined using the Baranyi model equation. The secondary models for maximum specific growth rate and lag time as functions of temperature were developed by the polynomial model equation. During 21 d of storage under various temperature conditions, lactic acid bacteria showed the longest lag time and the slowest growth rate among spoilage bacteria. The growth patterns of total viable cells and Pseudomonas spp. were similar each other. These data suggest that Pseudomonas spp. might be the dominant spoilage bacteria on frankfurters. As storage temperature increased, the growth rate of spoilage bacteria also increased and the lag time decreased. Furthermore, the shelf-life of frankfurters decreased from 7.0 to 4.3 and 1.9 (d) under increased temperature conditions. These results indicate that the most significant factor for spoilage bacteria growth is storage temperature. The values of $B_f$, $A_f$, RMSE, and $R^2$ indicate that these models were reliable for identifying the point of microbiological hazard for spoilage bacteria in frankfurters.

• Food Science and Preservation
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.778-785
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• 2017

This study was conducted to develop a predictive model for the growth of Escherichia coli strain RC-4-D isolated from red kohlrabi sprout seeds. We collected E. coli kinetic growth data during red kohlrabi seed sprouting under isothermal conditions (10, 15, 20, 25, and $30^{\circ}C$). Baranyi model was used as a primary order model for growth data. The maximum growth rate (${\mu}max$) and lag-phase duration (LPD) for each temperature (except for $10^{\circ}C$ LPD) were determined. Three kinds of secondary models (suboptimal Ratkowsky square-root, Huang model, and Arrhenius-type model) were compared to elucidate the influence of temperature on E. coli growth rate. The model performance measures for three secondary models showed that the suboptimal Huang square-root model was more suitable in the accuracy (1.223) and the suboptimal Ratkowsky square-root model was less in the bias (0.999), respectively. Among three secondary order model used in this study, the suboptimal Ratkowsky square-root model showed best fit for the secondary model for describing the effect of temperature. This model can be utilized to predict E. coli behavior in red kohlrabi sprout production and to conduct microbial risk assessments.