• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.250-250
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• 2020

수문시스템은 기후변화와 도시화와 같은 다양한 인간활동으로 인하여 지속적으로 변해오고 있다. 수문시스템의 변화를 이해하는 것은 주요한 과제였으며, 수문모델링, 기후탄력모델 등을 통해 변화의 원인과 정도를 정량화하고자 하는 노력이 이루어져 왔다. 수문모델링 방법은 변화 원인을 통제하고, 각 조건에 따른 영향분석을 수행하기에 용이하나, 유역별 수문모형의 보정과정은 연구자의 많은 노력이 필요하다. 기후탄력모델은 주로 Budyko 곡선이 활용되어왔으며, 장기간의 실측자료를 기반으로 작성된 곡선에서 변화 폭을 통해 기후변화와 인간활동의 영향을 정량화하는 연구가 진행되어왔으나, 장기간의 실측자료가 미비한 유역에서는 적용에 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화와 인간활동에 의한 수문시스템의 변화를 정량화하기 위해 climate elasticity model과 hydrological model을 접목하여 시범유역을 대상으로 분석하고자 한다. 장기간의 유역 유출량 자료는 HSPF 모형을 활용하여 모의하였으며, 2013~2015년은 보정, 2010~2012년은 검정된 모델을 활용하였다. 1970년부터 2015년까지 유출량자료를 활용하여 Budyko curve를 작성하였으며, 1970년대비 2015년의 수문시스템의 변화를 각 원인별로 정량화하였다. 본 연구는 수문시스템의 변화 원인 파악 및 회복을 위한 정책 수립에 기초로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.32-32
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• 2023

Incidences of urban flood and extreme heat waves (due to the urban heat island effect) are expected to increase in New Zealand under future climate change (IPCC 2022; MfE 2020). Increasingly, the mitigation of such events will depend on the resilience of a range Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) used in Sustainable Urban Drainage Schemes (SUDS), or Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) (Jamei and Tapper 2019; Johnson et al 2021). Understanding the impact of changing precipitation and temperature regimes due climate change is therefore critical to the long-term resilience of such urban infrastructure and design. Cuthbert et al (2022) have assessed the trade-offs between the water retention and cooling benefits of different urban greening methods (such as WSUD) relative to global location and climate. Using the Budyko water-energy balance framework (Budyko 1974), they demonstrated that the potential for water infiltration and storage (thus flood mitigation) was greater where potential evaporation is high relative to precipitation. Similarly, they found that the potential for mitigation of drought conditions was greater in cooler environments. Subsequently, Jaramillo et al. (2022) have illustrated the locations worldwide that will deviate from their current Budyko curve characteristic under climate change scenarios, as the relationship between actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) changes relative to precipitation. Using the above approach we assess the impact of future climate change on the urban water-energy balance in three contrasting New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Invercargill). The variation in Budyko curve characteristics is then used to describe expected changes in water storage and cooling potential in each urban area as a result of climate change. The implications of the results are then considered with respect to existing WSUD guidelines according to both the current and future climate in each location. It was concluded that calculation of Budyko curve deviation due to climate change could be calculated for any location and land-use type combination in New Zealand and could therefore be used to advance the general understanding of climate change impacts. Moreover, the approach could be used to better define the concept of urban infrastructure resilience and contribute to a better understanding of Budyko curve dynamics under climate change (questions raised by Berghuijs et al 2020)). Whilst this knowledge will assist in implementation of national climate change adaptation (MfE, 2022; UNEP, 2022) and improve climate resilience in urban areas in New Zealand, the approach could be repeated for any global location for which present and future mean precipitation and temperature conditions are known.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제64권2호
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• pp.71-83
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• 2022

In this study, an indicator and assessment system for evaluating the monthly hydrological cycle was prepared using simple factors such as the landuse status of the watershed and topographic characteristics to the dynamic water balance model (DWBM) based on the Budyko framework. The parameters a1 of DWBM are introduced as hydrologic cycle indicators. An indicator estimation regression model was developed using watershed characteristics data for the introduced indicator, and an assessment system was prepared through K-means cluster analysis. The hydrological cycle assessment system developed in this study can assess the hydrological cycle with simple data such as land use, CN, and watershed slope, so it can quickly assess changes in hydrological cycle factors in the past and present. Because of this advantage is expected that the developed assessment system can predict changes in the hydrological cycle and use an auxiliary tool for policymaking.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제63권2호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2021

Agricultural reservoirs have a great influence on the water circulation in the watershed. It is necessary to evaluate the impact on water circulation by the agricultural reservoir. Therefore, in this study, we simulated the agricultural watershed through linkage of Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) and Module-based hydrologic Analysis for Agricultural watershed (MASA) and evaluated the contribution of the agricultural reservoir to water circulation by watershed water circulation index. As a result of simulating the Idong reservoir watershed through the HSPF-MASA linkage model, the model performance during the validation period was R2 0.74 upstream, 0.78 downstream, and 0.76 reservoir water level, respectively. To evaluate the contribution of agricultural reservoirs, three scenarios (baseline, present state, and present state without reservoir) were simulated, and the water balance differences for each scenario were analyzed. In the evaluation through the agricultural water circulation rate in the watershed, it was found that the water circulation rate increased by 1.1%, and the direct flow rate decreased by 13.6 mm due to the agricultural reservoir. In the evaluation through the Budyko curve, the evaporation index increased by 0.01. Agricultural reservoirs reduce direct runoff and increase evapotranspiration, which has a positive effect on the water circulation.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제50권3호
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• pp.139-153
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• 2017

우리나라는 지난 30년 동안 기후변화 및 도시화 등으로 인한 변화가 급격하게 진행된 바 있으므로, 두 가지 요소들로 인한 유량의 변동량을 정량화하여 분석할 필요가 있다. 그러나 유량의 변동량을 특정 원인별로 구분하여 분석하고자 하는 국내 연구는 매우 미미한 형편이며, 다양한 시간단위를 이용한 원인별 유량 변동량의 산정에 관한 연구는 더욱 찾아보기 힘들다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화 및 인간활동으로 인한 유량 변동량을 정량적으로 분리하기 위하여 수문모형을 이용한 방법과 수문학적 민감도(hydrological sensitivity) 분석 방법을 소양강 상류유역 및 섬강 유역에 대해 적용하고 유량 변동량의 결과를 월별, 분기별 및 연별로 구분하여 제시하였다. 인간활동으로 인해 발생되는 급진적인 변동점을 탐색하기 위해 이중누가곡선, Pettitt 검정 및 베이지안 변동점(Bayesian change point) 분석을 시행하였으며, 탐색된 변동점을 활용하여 변동점 이전 구간에 대해 보정 및 검증된 SWAT모형과 6가지의 Budyko 곡선 함수들로부터 각각 유량 변동량을 산정하여 수문모형에 의한 유량 변동량을 검증하였다.