• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.221-240
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper investigates how business cycle impacts on corporate credit spreads since global financial crisis. Furthermore, it tests how the impact changes by the phase of the cycle. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected dataset from Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index through the Bloomberg. It conducted multi-regression analysis by projecting business cycle using Hodrick-Prescott filtering and various cyclical variables, while ran dynamic analysis of 5-variable Vector Error Correction Model to confirm the robustness of the test. Findings - First, it proves to be statistically significant that corporate credit spreads have moved countercyclicaly since the crisis. Second, It indicates that the corporate credit spread's countercyclicality to the macroeconomic changes works symmetrically by the phase of the cycle. Third, the VECM supports that business cycle's impact on the spreads maintains more sustainably than other explanatory variable does in the model. Research implications or Originality - It becomes more appealing to accurately measure the real economic impact on corporate credit spreads as the interaction between credit and business cycle deepens. The economic impact on the spreads works symmetrically by boom and bust, which implies that the market stress could impact as another negative driver during the bust. Finally, the business cycle's sustainable impact on the spreads supports the fact that the economic recovery is the key driver for the resilience of credit cycle.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.225-231
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• 2020

The paper aims to investigate the impact of trade integration on business cycle synchronization for the East Asian countries during 2005- 2017 based on the endogeneity hypothesis of Optimum Currency Area criteria. We test the determinants of business cycles by calculating bilateral trade, financial integration, and business cycle synchronization. Applying the system Generalized Method of Moments for dynamic panel data models, the results show that business cycle synchronization is highly associated with trade and financial integration. These findings confirm the endogeneity hypothesis that more trade integration will mitigate asymmetric shocks, and have a positive impact on the business cycle synchronization. The increased trade intensity and financial linkage lead to more correlated business cycles in East Asia. Apart from trade and financial integration, the trade structure differential, monetary policy similarity also influence the business cycle comovement. The significantly negative impact of trade structure differential on business cycle synchronization suggests that countries with less similar structures are more likely to undergo asymmetric shocks. The results also indicate that monetary policy matters for output comovement. This study recommends that the East Asian countries should focus on bilateral trade as well as financial integration with each other to reap benefits from the integration process.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.573-588
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• 2023

Purpose: This study presents a research approach that utilizes deep reinforcement learning to construct optimal portfolios based on the business cycle for stocks and other assets. The objective is to develop effective investment strategies that adapt to the varying returns of assets in accordance with the business cycle. Methods: In this study, a diverse set of time series data, including stocks, is collected and utilized to train a deep reinforcement learning model. The proposed approach optimizes asset allocation based on the business cycle, particularly by gathering data for different states such as prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery and constructing portfolios optimized for each phase. Results: Experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed deep reinforcement learning-based approach in constructing optimal portfolios tailored to the business cycle. The utility of optimizing portfolio investment strategies for each phase of the business cycle is demonstrated. Conclusion: This paper contributes to the construction of optimal portfolios based on the business cycle using a deep reinforcement learning approach, providing investors with effective investment strategies that simultaneously seek stability and profitability. As a result, investors can adopt stable and profitable investment strategies that adapt to business cycle volatility.

• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.129-140
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• 2002

This study is try to do the empirical tests on the relationship among innovation cycle, investment cycle, and business cycle suggested in recent economic growth models. We apply co-spectra analysis to estimate dynamic correlations in the extraction HP filtered variables and first difference filtered variables in our data set. Our empirical results are; (i) an existing asynchronization between innovation cycle and investment cycle, (ii) in the long frequency, an existing positive correlation between innovation cycle and business cycle, (iii) in the short frequency, however, a finding the high negative correlation between the two cycle. Our empirical findings support the recent growth through cycle models and suggest some economic policy implementations for economic stabilization during a severe business cycle.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2015년도 추계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.192-193
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• 2015

Construction Cycle Trend Survey, which survey total value of orders and realized amounts monthly, is a valuable statistics that used to quick grasp or forecast the trend of domestic construction business. In recent periodical survey quality diagnoses, few professional users named a problem that Construction Cycle Trend Survey could not get together with the current state of the construction industry. This study examined weather Construction Cycle Trend Survey reflects the economic sentiment of construction business or not. Paired t test was performed between Construction Cycle Trend Survey and Construction Business Survey Index (CBSI), and significant differences were verified.

• 무역학회지
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.83-98
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• 2021

This study aims to examine the effects of international trade in intermediate input on the implications of international business cycle properties in Korea. To do this, I have extended standard one goods New Keynesian international business cycle model to incorporate the role of intermediate inputs. After constructing the DSGE model, I have analysed the impulse response function and varian decomposition results. The results show that the model could introduce a new channel, that is, "cost channel" like Eyquem and Kamber (2014). In other words, the model has changed the dynamics of aggregate inflation by the cost channel. When the trade in intermediate goods increase, which is measured by openness of foreign input, the volatility of output, consumption and inflation increase two or three times. However, the model itself fails to explain the full account of cycle behavior of historical data, but the results imply that the trade in intermediate input assumption can help to improve the forecasting ability of international business cycle models.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.47-85
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• 2009

본 연구는 1970년 이후 우리나라 거시경제변수들의 경기변동과 관련된 특징들을 포괄적으로 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 각종 거시경제 변수들이 어떠한 특성을 보여 왔는지에 대해 실증분석하였다. 실증분석에서는 크게 국내 경제의 순환적 변동을 어떻게 식별할 것인지, 주요 경제변수들이 전체 경기순환과정에서 어떠한 패턴으로 변동하고 있는지, 그리고 경기변동과정의 안정성에 대한 변화 여부 등의 이슈를 다루었다. 분석 결과, 1970년 이후 우리나라 거시경제의 안정성은 외환위기 기간을 제외하고는 개선되었으며, 특히 2000년 이후부터는 경제내의 부문 간에 상호보완적인 관계가 나타나면서 전체적인 경기변동성이 감소하였던 것으로 나타나고 있다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.327-346
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• 2023

In the recent 20 years, the capital flows between Korea and European Union have increased and diversified. In particular, the business cycles of two economies have shown similar patterns since the Global Financial Crisis. This study examines both trends and investigates the roles of finance and trade on business cycle co-movements between two economies. The empirical results show that the business cycles can diverge due to either the common shocks or the country-specific shocks. Furthermore, financial integration increases the business cycle co-movements driven by both the country-specific shocks and the common shocks between two economies.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.145-155
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• 2020

본 연구의 목적은 기업의 수명주기에 따른 경영전략과 원가행태의 관계를 살펴보는 것이다. 본 연구를 수행하기 위해 먼저, 2000년부터 2019년 사이에 국내 상장기업을 대상으로 경영전략과 원가행태의 관계를 실증분석 하고, 기업수명주기 단계별로 경영전략이 기업의 원가행태에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 구체적으로, 연속적 재무지표를 이용한 경영전략지수를 산출하여 선도형(Prospector) 또는 방어형(Defender) 기업에 가까운 기업으로 구분하고 기업의 현금흐름를 토대로 기업수명주기 단계를 구분하였다. 분석 결과, 선도형 전략에 가까운 기업일수록 원가 비대칭성이 심화되는 것으로 나타났으며, 기업수명주기 단계 중 도입기에 그러한 관계가 가장 강하게 나타남을 확인하였다. 본 연구는 기업의 경영전략과 원가전략을 기업수명주기 단계별로 살펴봄으로써 보다 포괄적인 분석을 수행하였으며, 재무적 지표를 활용하여 경영전략을 구분함으로써 재무정보의 적용 사례를 확장하였다는 것에 의미가 있다.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.45-59
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• 2022

Purpose - This study investigates the performance of investment strategies incorporating estimated stock market cycle based on a lead-lag relationship between business cycle and stock market cycle, thereby deriving empirical implications on risk management. Design/methodology/approach - The data period ranges from June 1953 to September 2022 and de-trended short rate, term spread, credit spread, stock market volatility are considered as major input variables to estimate business cycle and stock market cycle by applying probit model. Based on the estimated stock market cycle, two types of strategies are constructed and their performance relative to the benchmark is empirically examined. Findings Two types of strategies based on stock market cycle are considered: The first strategy is to long(short) on stocks when stock market stage is expected to be an expansion(a recession), and the second one is to long on stocks(bonds) when expecting an expansion(a recession). The empirical results show that the strategies based on stock market cycle outperforms a simple buy and hold strategy in both in-sample and out-of-sample investigation. Also the out-of-sample evidence suggests that the second strategy which is in line with asset allocation is more profitable than the first one. Research implications or Originality The strategies considered in this study are based on the estimated stock market cycle which only depends on a few easily available financial variables, thereby making easier to establish such a strategy. It implies that investors enhance investment performance by constructing a relatively simple trading strategies if they set their position on stocks or choose which asset class to buy conditioning on stock market cycle.