• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 1998.10a
• /
• pp.263-269
• /
• 1998

The forecasting of container cargo volumes should be estimated correctly because it has a key roles on the establishment of port development planning, and the decision of port operating system. Container cargo volumes have a dynamic characteristics which was changed by effect of competitive ports. Accordingly forecasting was needed overall approach about competitive port's development, alternation and information. But, until now, traffic forecasting was not executed according to competitive situation, and that was accomplished at the point of unit port. Generally, considering the competition situation, simulation method was desirable at forecasting because system's scale was increased, and the influence power was intensified. In this paper, considering this situation, the objectives can be outlined as follows. 1) Structural model constructs by System dynamics method. 2) Structural simulation model develops according to modelling of competitive situation by expended SD method which included HEP(Hierarchical Fuzzy Process) And actually, effectiveness was verified according to proposed model to major port in northeast asia.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.477-486
• /
• 2001

Although the ports are actually competing with various strategies, the definition and structural understanding of port competitive power are not known very much. Therefore this study has launched from this fact, and has the objective of obtaining the structural model of the competitive power, and understanding the components of the port competitive power. The following are the results of the study. First, the process began by abstracting the components that composed the port competitive power through recent research, and grouping it by the most core components using the KJ method. Also, by using the FSM(Fuzzy Structural Modeling) method to understand the structure of the grouped components, and the structural model of the port competitive power was able to obtain as the result. Second, when analyzing the obtained structural model, port expenses, main trunk location, port congestion and port facility came out to be the most important component groups, and especially port expenses was the most effective component that effected all the other components overall. Third, the component groups that were relatively less important, effected by most of the other components, and located on the top level of the structure model were the hinterland accessibility, port ownership, customs duties speed, and large ship port entrance possibility etc. Fourth, the results of this study will be able to be used when establishing competing strategies for our country's ports by proposing the relatively important components with the port competitive rower considered.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
• /
• v.1 no.1
• /
• pp.103-131
• /
• 2000

If a system such as a port has a large boundary and complexity, and the system's substance is considered as a black box, forecast accuracy will be very low. Futhermore various components in a port exert significant influence on each other. To copy with these problem the form of structure models were introduced by using SD method. The Competitive Ports Model had several sub-systems consisting of each Unit Port models, and each Unit Port model was made by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops. The fact that all components of one port have influence on the components of the other ports should be taken into account to construct Competitive Port Models. However, with the current approach that is impossible, and in this paper therefore, models were simplified by HFP adapted to integrate level variables of unit port models. Although many studies on modelling of port competitive situation have been conducted, both theoretical frame and methodology are still very weak. In this study, a new algorithm called ESD(Extensional System Dynamics) for the evaluation of port competition was presented, and applied to simulate port systems in northeast asia.

• Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
• /
• 1999.08a
• /
• pp.105-132
• /
• 1999

If a system such as a port has a large boundary and complexity, and the system's substance is considered as a black box, forecast accuracy will be very low. Furthermore various components in a port exert significant influence on each other. To copy with these problem the form of structure models were introduced by using SD method. The Competitive Ports Model had several sub-systems consisting of each Unit Port models, and each Unit Port model was made by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops. The fact that all components of one port have influence on the components of the other ports should be taken into account to construct Competitive Port Models. However, with the current approach that is impossible, and in this paper, therefore, models were simplified by HFP adapted to integrate level variables of unit port models. Although many studies on modelling of port competitive situation have been conducted, both theoretical frame and methodology are still very weak. In this study, a new algorithm called ESD(Extensional System Dynamics) for the evaluation of port competition was presented, and applied to simulate port systems in northeast Asia.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.31 no.2
• /
• pp.133-139
• /
• 2007

Relative importance of maritime transport that takes charge of main current of freight in country' economy is very large. Especially, port and facility carry out important role which treats freight of import and export smoothly and improves international trade as turning point, to achieve key role on connection and association between sea and land. For such reason, enlargement of port facilities or development of port needs to grasp exactly the utilization of port, attributes and selective factors of shipper. On the other hand, the amounts of physical distribution on Mokpo port located in Korean west coast are increasing, with fast economic growth of East Asian including China. This study uses discrete choice model that is measuring to analyze attribute and characteristic of Mokpo port, and analyzes port selection by decision factors of shipper. This paper composed a questionnaire using the result of preceding research, to decide port selection factor among competitive ports. Through factor analysis on a basis of the questionnaire' result, five principal components were extracted. These are resorted out by Logit model, to grasp competitive elements of port. This research fin present direction which raises competitive power of ports in west coast of Korea, especially on alternative and concentration of middle-class port as Mokpo may be useful.

• Proceedings of the Korea Port Economic Association Conference
• /
• 2007.07a
• /
• pp.441-455
• /
• 2007

Based on the fact that Qingdao port, Tianjin port and Dalian port of the economic circle around Bohai have been the three islands of stability through long-term competition, this paper conducts a system study on the competitive powers of the three ports through AHP model on the analysis of current status of the three ports, and probes deeply into the outer factors and the inner factors affecting on the competitive advantage, and points out the existing problems in competition. We think that the three ports must compete orderly and collaborate closely, and give the forms and approaches developing strategy collaboration in order to obtain an advantageous position in Northeast Asia and improve the international competitive power.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 1998

If a system has a large boundary and complexity, forecast's accuracy will be very low when consider the system's substance as black box. Thus, it is necessary that analysis by structure model. To examine competition in Northeast Asia Ports, it has assumed that the form of structure model, For which the System Dynamics method is adapted in this paper. Northeast Asia Ports Model includes five ports - Pusan, Kobe, Yokohama, Kaoshiung, Keelung, - which are adjacent to each other by geographically and has a competition relation. The Northeast Asia Ports Model has several sub-systems which consists of each unit port models. And, each unit port model found by quantitive, qualititive factors and their feedback loops. All effects which components of one port have influence to components of the rest ports must be surveyed in order to construct Northeast Asia Ports Model, but it may be impossible currently. In this paper Northeast Asia Ports Model was simplified by HFP-Hierarchical Fuzzy Process Method-adapted to integration of level variables of unit port model. Container cargo volumes in Northeast Ports Model is distributed by results of HFP method. And distributed container cargo volumes effected to unit port model. Developed model can estimate change of container cargo volumes in competitive relation by alternation of simple parameter, and reflects dynamics characteristics which are included in model.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.31 no.2
• /
• pp.85-101
• /
• 2015

This study formulates a development strategy for Gwangyang port through the analysis of its competition with other major Northeast Asian ports. A revised BCG matrix is applied to estimate the change in competition between the major ports in Northeast Asia and the Lotka-Volterra model is used for the competitor analysis. The growing competitive power and influence of Chinese ports, continued competitive advantage of Busan port, diminishing competitiveness of Gwangyang and Incheon ports, and disappearing competitive position of Japanese ports in Northeast Asia are all confirmed. In addition, according to the relationship between Gwangyang port and other major Northeast Asian ports from 2007 to 2014, Gwangyang port has changed to a predatory from a win/win relation with Busan port and has maintained its predatory relationship with Hong Kong port in terms of transshipment cargoes. Moreover, Gwangyang port has formed predatory relationships with Shanghai and Ningbo ports, a pure competitive relation with Tianjin port, and a win/win relation with Qingdao and Dalian ports. Overall, predatory relationships between Gwangyang port and other Northeast Asia ports increased from 2007 to 2014. The counterstrategies for Gwangyang port to address this situation include establishing cooperative relations and continuing the win/win relationships with cooperative ports.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.75-84
• /
• 1999

Although many studies on modelling of port competitive situation have been conducted, both theoretical frame and methodology are still very weak. In this study, therefore, a new algorithm called ESD (Extensional System Dynamics) for the evaluation of port competition was presented, and applied to simulate port systems in northeast asia. The detailed objectives of this paper are to develop Unit fort Model by using SD(System Dynamics) method; to develop Competitive Port Model by ESD method; to perform sensitivity analysis by altering parameters, and to propose port development strategies. For these the algorithm for the evaluation of part's competition was developed in two steps. Firstly, SD method was adopted to develop the Unit Port models, and secondly HFP(Hierarchical Fuzzy Process) method was introduced to expand previous SD method. The proposed models were then developed and applied to the five ports - Pusan, Kobe, Yokohama, Kaoshiung, Keelung - with real data on each ports, and several findings were derived. Firstly, the extraction of factors for Unit Port was accomplished by consultation of experts such as research worker, professor, research fellows related to harbor, and expert group, and finally, five factor groups - location, facility, service, cargo volumes, and port charge - were obtained. Secondly, system's structure consisting of feedback loop was found easily by location of representative and detailed factors on keyword network of STGB map. Using these keyword network, feedback loop was found. Thirdly, for the target year of 2003, the simulation for Pusan port revealed that liner's number would be increased from 829 ships to 1,450 ships and container cargo volumes increased from 4.56 million TEU to 7.74 million TEU. It also revealed that because of increased liners and container cargo volumes, length of berth should be expanded from 2,162m to 4,729m. This berth expansion was resulted in the decrease of congested ship's number from 97 to 11. It was also found that port's charge had a fluctuation. Results of simulation for Kobe, Yokohama, Kaoshiung, Keelung in northeast asia were also acquired. Finally, the inter port competition models developed by ESB method were used to simulate container cargo volumes for Pusan port. The results revealed that under competitive situation container cargo volume was smaller than non-competitive situation, which means Pusan port is lack of competitive power to other ports. Developed models in this study were then applied to estimate change of container cargo volumes in competitive relation by altering several parameters. And, the results were found to be very helpful for port mangers who are in charge of planning of port development.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.1-14
• /
• 2009

This study predicted Port trade volume by considering Korea's export to China and import Com China separately using ARIMA model (Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Model). We predicted monthly Port trade volumes for 27 months from October 2008 to December 2010 using monthly data from September 2008 to January 2001 using monthly data. As a result of prediction, we found that the export volume decreased in January, February, August and September while the import volume decreased in February, March, August and September. As the decrease period was clearly differentiated, it was possible to predict export and import volumes. Therefore, it is believed that the results of this study will generate useful basic data for policy makers or those working for export and import enterprises when they set up policies and management plans. And to improve competitive power of Port trade, this study suggests privatization of Port, improvement of information capability, improvement of competitive power of Port management companies, support for Port distribution companies, plans for active encouragement of transshipment, and management of added value creation policy.