• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.15-23
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• 1981

This paper deals with cross impact analysis for technology assessment. The focus of the paper is to develop new technique of cross impact matrix using goal programming method. In this study, the idea of cross impact analysis based on scenario generation method especially SMIC-74 (2) is expanded. Critical literature review on SMIC-74 is presented to discuss the mathematical rationale of consistent probability in cross impact analysis. A new model of cross impact analysis using goal programming to overcome the shortcomings of the scenario generation technique especially SMIC-74 is developed. This new technique is also applied to the assessment of the air pollution problems in Seoul Metropolitan area in Korea. The results of analysis give us following findings 1) Cross impact analysis using goal programming produce more meaningful solutions comparing to those of SMIC-74 2) Theoretical rationale of the objective function in the newly developed technique is more appropriate than that of SMIC-74.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-17
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• 2002

The objective of this paper is to develop a new priority setting algorithm that considers the cross-impact of the future technology alternatives and that satisfies the final goal of the technology management through multi-hierarchy evaluation criteria. By combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model, which is a well-known priority setting model, and Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) model, which is a technological forecasting method that considers cross-impact among R&D Items, we developed an Integrated Cross-Impact Hierarchical (CIH) model, which sets the priority by considering technological forecasting and technology dependency simultaneously. A step-by-step numerical example of the model developed here is presented as backup of its practicality.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.63-75
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• 2014

Purpose - This study analyzes topics discussed in the International Journal of Consumer Studies through a content analysis, to reveal the impact of cross-cultural management in consumer research. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - The International Journal of Consumer Studies has the highest impact factor among international consumer journals, and was chosen for research. This study investigated 712 articles, covering a ten-year period. Results - A total of 82 articles were found to be related to cross-cultural management, out of 712 articles. This shows a need for improvement in the area of cross-cultural management, and implies that the discipline of cross-cultural management will continue to have a significant impact on consumer studies. Conclusions - While content analyses have been conducted in the area of consumer research in the past, a comparative content analysis in the International Journal of Consumer Studies is unprecedented. This study offers insights on the comparative analysis of general articles and articles related to cross-cultural management, which will be useful reference points for future global markets and fields in distribution and consumer research.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.8-23
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to develop a Cross Impact System Alternatives Tree(CISAT) model necessary for selecting the interdependent R&D planning system alternatives. This model modifies System Alternatives Tree(SAT) model developed by Kwon et al.. The SAT model is composed of several functions necessary for the achievement of a final goal and several subsystems for satisfying each function. In case that the relationship of technology alternatives is interdependent, this model overlooked a relative importance derived from occurrence or nonoccurrence of the technology alternatives in the future time varience. However, a complex evaluation process within the ballot system is another disadvantage of the SAT. To solve such problems, the Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) model is applied in the SAT model so as to consider the cross impact among interdependent system alternatives.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.9-25
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• 1983

A new approach to cross impact analysis using probabilistic system dynamics(PSD) is presented in this article. The previous models using PSD consist of system dynamics models as a basis which are interacting with cross impact analysis (CIA) sectors. In this model, the policy impact analysis part is separated from the CIA sectors and is constituted an independent subsectors of the model. The policy subsector is designed to separate the policy impact and provide feedback both to the system dynamics base model and cross impact analysis sectors. The new technique is applied to the forecasting, assessment and policy formulation of air pollution in Seoul metropolitan area in 2,000. The results show that the new tool consider policy effects more effectively than the previous PSD models.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.129-147
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• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2012.11a
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• pp.155-157
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• 2012

Recently, construction industry makes a great effort on minimizing the environmental impact. While various environmental-friendly technologies are applied to the operating phase of buildings, few equipment or machinery are partly used during the construction phase. For this reason, this study carried out a comprehensive analysis on environmental-friendly technologies for the whole construction process. In this study, appropriate environmental-friendly technologies of each construction activity were elicited to improve the environment of construction sites. Environmental-friendly technologies and construction activities were selected by professional consultation and descriptive statistics analysis, and proper environmental-friendly technologies were elicited from Cross-Impact Analysis. As a result, waste disposal and recycling technology was highly effective for demolition work while development of replacing materials was for reinforced concrete work.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.73-96
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• 2019

This study suggests a new approach for identifying core robot tech-nologies based on technological cross-impact. Specifically, the approach applies data mining techniques and multi-criteria decision-making methods to the co-classification information of registered patents on the robots. First, a cross-impact matrix is constructed with the confidence values by applying association rule mining (ARM) to the co-classification information of patents. Analytic network process (ANP) is applied to the co-classification frequency matrix for deriving weights of each robot technology. Then, a technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is employed to the derived cross-impact matrix and weights for identifying core robot technologies from the overall cross-impact perspective. It is expected that the proposed approach could help robot technology managers to formulate strategy and policy for technology planning of robot area.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.29-39
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• 2018

Purpose - With the improvement of people's living standards, traveling abroad has become a common way for people to release the pressure of life and work. In economics, this kind of way can affect the international trade. Because of this background, this paper sets BRICS countries as an example to explore the impact of cross-border tourism on bilateral trade. Research design, data, and Methodology - The annual time series data sets form 1998 to 2016 are used to perform an empirical analysis under a series of econometric approaches such as the Phillips-Perron test and the Engle-Granger two-step test. In this paper, the cross-border tourism and the bilateral trade will be used to conduct an empirical analysis based on the econometric approaches to analyze the impact of cross-border tourism on bilateral trade. Results - The finding of this paper show that there is a long-run relationship between cross-border tourism and bilateral trade in this sample. Moreover, the cross-border tourism is the Granger causality of bilateral trade. Namely, the cross-border tourism can promote the development of bilateral trade. Conclusions - In short, the evidences that this paper presents show that the cross-border tourism is a driving factor that impacts the bilateral trade in the sample of BRICS countries.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.91-99
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• 2013

Car cross beam made by aluminium for new car is designed for the substitution of steel and it can be verified the performance by computer simulations. The parts of car cross beam are designed to replace steel parts according to their manufacturing processes. At the first stage, the weight of the aluminium car cross beam can be reduced to 75% by comparing with that of steel car cross beam. But NVH performance of the aluminium car cross beam becomes slightly insufficient as compared with that of steel car cross beam. Taguchi method is adopted to optimize the design variables affecting NVH characteristics of car cross beam. New car cross beam is designed at the second stage by using these analysis results. Weight reduction can be obtained to 31.7% by design modification and material change of car cross beam in comparison with the original steel one. NVH characteristics of aluminium car cross beam become on an equal level with the steel car cross beam. By side impact analysis results, new car cross beam has higher performance as compared with the steel car cross beam.