• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.89-110
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• 2012

This study was intended to efficiently perform the probabilistic optimal safety assessment of steel cable-stayed bridges (SCS bridges) using stochastic finite element analysis (SFEA) and expected life-cycle cost (LCC) concept. To that end, advanced probabilistic finite element algorithm (APFEA) which enables to execute the static and dynamic SFEA considering aleatory uncertainties contained in random variable was developed. APFEA is the useful analytical means enabling to conduct the reliability assessment (RA) in a systematic way by considering the result of SFEA based on linearity and nonlinearity of before or after introducing initial tensile force. The appropriateness of APFEA was verified in such a way of comparing the result of SFEA and that of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The probabilistic method was set taking into account of analytical parameters. The dynamic response characteristic by probabilistic method was evaluated using ASFEA, and RA was carried out using analysis results, thereby quantitatively calculating the probabilistic safety. The optimal design was determined based on the expected LCC according to the results of SFEA and RA of alternative designs. Moreover, given the potential epistemic uncertainty contained in safety index, failure probability and minimum LCC, the sensitivity analysis was conducted and as a result, a critical distribution phase was illustrated using a cumulative-percentile.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.306-312
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• 2017

The purpose of this research is to introduce the technical standard of accident sequence precursor (ASP) analysis, and to propose a case study using the dynamic-probabilistic safety assessment (D-PSA) approach. The D-PSA approach can aid in the determination of high-risk/low-frequency accident scenarios from all potential scenarios. It can also be used to investigate the dynamic interaction between the physical state and the actions of the operator in an accident situation for risk quantification. This approach lends significant potential for safety analysis. Furthermore, the D-PSA approach provides a more realistic risk assessment by minimizing assumptions used in the conventional PSA model so-called the static-PSA model, which are relatively static in comparison. We performed risk quantification of a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident using the dynamic event tree (DET) methodology, which is the most widely used methodology in D-PSA. The risk quantification results of D-PSA and S-PSA are compared and evaluated. Suggestions and recommendations for using D-PSA are described in order to provide a technical perspective.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.11
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• pp.3465-3473
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• 2021

For a long time, research into integrated deterministic-probabilistic safety assessment has been continuously conducted to point out and overcome the limitations of classical ET (event tree)/FT (fault tree) based PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). The current paper also attempts to assert the reason why a technical transformation from classical PSA is necessary with a re-interpretation of the categories of risk. In this study, residual risk was classified into interpolating- and extrapolating-censored categories, which represent risks that are difficult to identify through an interpolation or extrapolation of representative scenarios due to potential nonlinearity between hardware and human behaviors intertwined in time and space. The authors hypothesize that such risk can be dealt with only if the classical ETs/FTs are freely relocated, entailing large-scale computation associated with physical models. The functional elements that are favorable to find residual risk were inferred from previous studies. The authors then introduce their under-development enabling techniques, namely DICE (Dynamic Integrated Consequence Evaluation) and DeBATE (Deep learning-Based Accident Trend Estimation). This work can be considered as a preliminary initiative to find the bridging points between deterministic and probabilistic assessments on the pillars of big data technology.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.25-35
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• 2002

This paper presents a dynamic reliability assessment methodology for use in the safety assessment of a complex system such as a nuclear power plant. The method is applied to a dynamic analysis of the potential accident sequences that may occur during mid-loop operation in a nuclear power plant. The idea behind this approach consists of both the use of the concept of the performance achievement/requirement correlation and of a dynamic event tree generation method. The assessment of the system reliability depends on the determination of both the required performance distribution and the achieved performance distribution. The quantified correlation between requirement and achievement represents a comparison between two competing variables. It is demonstrated that this method is easily applicable and flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of dynamic reliability problem.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.9
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• pp.1983-1989
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• 2020

The human reliability analysis is a method by which, in general terms, the human impact to the safety and risk of a nuclear power plant operation can be modelled, quantified and analysed. It is an indispensable element of the PSA process within the nuclear industry nowadays. The paper herein presents a sensitivity study of the human reliability analysis performed on a real nuclear power plant-specific probabilistic safety assessment model. The analysis is performed on a pre-selected set of post-initiator operator actions. The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of these operator actions on the plant risk by altering their corresponding human error probabilities in a wide spectrum. The results direct the fact that the future effort should be focused on maintaining the current human reliability level, i.e. not letting it worsen, rather than improving it.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.91-99
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• 2010

In this study, the advanced numerical algorithm is developed which can performed the static and dynamic stochastic finite element analysis by considering the effect of uncertainties included in the member stiffness of steel cable-stayed bridges and seismic load. After conducting the linear and nonlinear initial shape analysis, the advanced numerical algorithm is the assessment tool which can performed structural the response analysis considering the static linearity and non-linearity of before or after induced intial tensile force, and examined the reliability assessment more efficiently. The verification of the developed numerical algorithm is evaluated by analyzing the regression analysis and coefficient of correlation using the direct monte carlo simulation. Also, the dynamic response characteristic and coefficient of variation of the steel cable-stayed bridge is calculated by considering the uncertainty of random variables using the developed numerical algorithm. In addition, the quantitative structural safety of the steel cable-stayed bridges is evaluated by conducting the reliability assessment based upon the dynamic stochastic finite element analysis result.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.661-668
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• 2019

Seismic vulnerability assessment is a useful tool for rational safety analysis and planning of large and complex structural systems; it can deal with the effects of uncertainties on the performance of significant structural systems. In this study, an efficient dynamic reliability approach, probability density evolution methodology (PDEM), is proposed for seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams. The PDEM provides the failure probability of different limit states for various levels of ground motion intensity as well as the mean value, standard deviation and probability density function of the performance metric of the earth dam. Combining the seismic reliability with three different performance levels related to the displacement of the earth dam, the seismic fragility curves are constructed without them being limited to a specific functional form. Furthermore, considering the seismic fragility analysis is a significant procedure in the seismic probabilistic risk assessment of structures, the seismic vulnerability results obtained by the dynamic reliability approach are combined with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic loss analysis to present and address the PDEM-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment framework by a simulated case study of an earth dam.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.11b
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• pp.46-48
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• 2005

This paper discusses a probabilistic method for power system security assessment. The security analysis relates to the ability of the electric power systems to survive sudden disturbances such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of system elements. It consists of both steady state and dynamic security analyses, which are not two separate issues but should be considered together. In steady state security analysis including voltage security analysis, the analysis checks that the system is operated within security limits by OPF (optimal power flow) after the transition to a new operating point. Until now, many utilities have difficulty in including dynamic aspects due to computational capabilities. On the other hand. dynamic security analysis is required to ensure that the transition may lead to an acceptable operating condition. Transient stability, which is the ability of power systems to maintain synchronism when subjected to a large disturbance. is a principal component in dynamic security analysis. Usually any loss of synchronism may cause additional outages and make the present steady state analysis of the post-contingency condition inadequate for unstable cases. This is the reason for the need of dynamic studies in power systems. Probabilistic criterion can be used to recognize the probabilistic nature of system components while considering system security. In this approach. we do not have to assign any predetermined margin of safety. A comprehensive conceptual framework for probabilistic static and dynamic assessment is presented in this paper. The simulation results of the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) system compare an analytical method with Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS).

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.295-305
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• 2017

This paper reviews current status of the unified approach known as integrated safety assessment (ISA), as well as the associated SCAIS (simulation codes system for ISA) computer platform. These constitute a proposal, which is the result of collaborative action among the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), University of Madrid (UPM), and NFQ Solutions S.L, aiming to allow independent regulatory verification of industry quantitative risk assessments. The content elaborates on discussions of the classical treatment of time in conventional probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) sequences and states important conclusions that can be used to avoid systematic and unacceptable underestimation of the failure exceedance frequencies. The unified ISA method meets this challenge by coupling deterministic and probabilistic mutual influences. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated with some examples of its application to a real size plant.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.386-403
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• 2016

The safety of nuclear power plants is analyzed by a probabilistic risk assessment, and the fault tree analysis is the most widely used method for a risk assessment with the event tree analysis. One of the well-known disadvantages of the fault tree is that drawing a fault tree for a complex system is a very cumbersome task. Thus, several graphical modeling methods have been proposed for the convenient and intuitive modeling of complex systems. In this paper, the reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) method, one of the intuitive graphical modeling methods based on Bayesian networks, is improved for the reliability analyses of dynamic systems that have various operation modes with time. A reliability matrix is proposed and it is explained how to utilize the reliability matrix in the RGGG for various cases of operation mode changes. The proposed RGGG with a reliability matrix provides a convenient and intuitive modeling of various operation modes of complex systems, and can also be utilized with dynamic nodes that analyze the failure sequences of subcomponents. The combinatorial use of a reliability matrix with dynamic nodes is illustrated through an application to a shutdown cooling system in a nuclear power plant.