• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic evaluation

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The Effect of Price Promotional Information about Brand on Consumer's Quality Perception: Conditioning on Pretrial Brand (품패개격촉소신식대소비자질량인지적영향(品牌价格促销信息对消费者质量认知的影响))

  • Lee, Min-Hoon;Lim, Hang-Seop
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2009
  • Price promotion typically reduces the price for a given quantity or increases the quantity available at the same price, thereby enhancing value and creating an economic incentive to purchase. It often is used to encourage product or service trial among nonusers of products or services. Thus, it is important to understand the effects of price promotions on quality perception made by consumer who do not have prior experience with the promoted brand. However, if consumers associate a price promotion itself with inferior brand quality, the promotion may not achieve the sales increase the economic incentives otherwise might have produced. More specifically, low qualitative perception through price promotion will undercut the economic and psychological incentives and reduce the likelihood of purchase. Thus, it is important for marketers to understand how price promotional informations about a brand have impact on consumer's unfavorable quality perception of the brand. Previous literatures on the effects of price promotions on quality perception reveal inconsistent explanations. Some focused on the unfavorable effect of price promotion on consumer's perception. But others showed that price promotions didn't raise unfavorable perception on the brand. Prior researches found these inconsistent results related to the timing of the price promotion's exposure and quality evaluation relative to trial. And, whether the consumer has been experienced with the product promotions in the past or not may moderate the effects. A few studies considered differences among product categories as fundamental factors. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of price promotional informations on consumer's unfavorable quality perception under the different conditions. The author controlled the timing of the promotional exposure and varied past promotional patterns and information presenting patterns. Unlike previous researches, the author examined the effects of price promotions setting limit to pretrial situation by controlling potentially moderating effects of prior personal experience with the brand. This manipulations enable to resolve possible controversies in relation to this issue. And this manipulation is meaningful for the work sector. Price promotion is not only used to target existing consumers but also to encourage product or service trial among nonusers of products or services. Thus, it is important for marketers to understand how price promotional informations about a brand have impact on consumer's unfavorable quality perception of the brand. If consumers associate a price promotion itself with inferior quality about unused brand, the promotion may not achieve the sales increase the economic incentives otherwise might have produced. In addition, if the price promotion ends, the consumer that have purchased that certain brand will likely to display sharply decreased repurchasing behavior. Through a literature review, hypothesis 1 was set as follows to investigate the adjustive effect of past price promotion on quality perception made by consumers; The influence that price promotion of unused brand have on quality perception made by consumers will be adjusted by past price promotion activity of the brand. In other words, a price promotion of an unused brand that have not done a price promotion in the past will have a unfavorable effect on quality perception made by consumer. Hypothesis 2-1 was set as follows : When an unused brand undertakes price promotion for the first time, the information presenting pattern of price promotion will have an effect on the consumer's attribution for the cause of the price promotion. Hypothesis 2-2 was set as follows : The more consumer dispositionally attribute the cause of price promotion, the more unfavorable the quality perception made by consumer will be. Through test 1, the subjects were given a brief explanation of the product and the brand before they were provided with a $2{\times}2$ factorial design that has 4 patterns of price promotion (presence or absence of past price promotion * presence or absence of current price promotion) and the explanation describing the price promotion pattern of each cell. Then the perceived quality of imaginary brand WAVEX was evaluated in the scale of 7. The reason tennis racket was chosen is because the selected product group must have had almost no past price promotions to eliminate the influence of average frequency of promotion on the value of price promotional information as Raghubir and Corfman (1999) pointed out. Test 2 was also carried out on students of the same management faculty of test 1 with tennis racket as the product group. As with test 1, subjects with average familiarity for the product group and low familiarity for the brand was selected. Each subjects were assigned to one of the two cells representing two different information presenting patterns of price promotion of WAVEX (case where the reason behind price promotion was provided/case where the reason behind price promotion was not provided). Subjects looked at each promotional information before evaluating the perceived quality of the brand WAVEX in the scale of 7. The effect of price promotion for unfamiliar pretrial brand on consumer's perceived quality was proved to be moderated with the presence or absence of past price promotion. The consistency with past promotional behavior is important variable that makes unfavorable effect on brand evaluations get worse. If the price promotion for the brand has never been carried out before, price promotion activity may have more unfavorable effects on consumer's quality perception. Second, when the price promotion of unfamiliar pretrial brand was executed for the first time, presenting method of informations has impact on consumer's attribution for the cause of firm's promotion. And the unfavorable effect of quality perception is higher when the consumer does dispositional attribution comparing with situational attribution. Unlike the previous studies where the main focus was the absence or presence of favorable or unfavorable motivation from situational/dispositional attribution, the focus of this study was exaus ing the fact that a situational attribution can be inferred even if the consumer employs a dispositional attribution on the price promotional behavior, if the company provides a persuasive reason. Such approach, in academic perspectih sis a large significance in that it explained the anchoring and adjng ch approcedures by applying it to a non-mathematical problem unlike the previous studies where it wis ionaly explained by applying it to a mathematical problem. In other wordn, there is a highrspedency tmatispositionally attribute other's behaviors according to the fuedach aal attribution errors and when this is applied to the situation of price promotions, we can infer that consumers are likely tmatispositionally attribute the company's price promotion behaviors. Ha ever, even ueder these circumstances, the company can adjng the consumer's anchoring tmareduce the po wibiliute thdispositional attribution. Furthermore, unlike majority of previous researches on short/long-term effects of price promotion that only considered the effect of price promotions on consumer's purchasing behaviors, this research measured the effect on perceived quality, one of man elements that affects the purchasing behavior of consumers. These results carry useful implications for the work sector. A guideline of effectively providing promotional informations for a new brand can be suggested through the outcomes of this research. If the brand is to avoid false implications such as inferior quality while implementing a price promotion strategy, it must provide a clear and acceptable reasons behind the promotion. Especially it is more important for the company with no past price promotion to provide a clear reason. An inconsistent behavior can be the cause of consumer's distrust and anxiety. This is also one of the most important factor of risk of endless price wars. Price promotions without prior notice can buy doubt from consumers not market share.

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A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

Physicochemical Characteristics of Tailings from the Various Types of Mineral Deposits (광상유형에 따른 광물찌꺼기의 물리화학적 특성)

  • Lee, Pyeong-Koo;Youm, Seung-Jun;Jung, Myung-Chae;Lee, Jin-Soo;Kwon, Hyun-Ho
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.235-248
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    • 2010
  • To construct the standard methods for evaluation of physicochemical characteristics of tailings in Korea, specific gravity, paste pH, grain size, mineral compositions and heavy metal concentrations of total 26 tailings from 21 metallic mines were analyzed. Specific gravity of tailings ranged from 2.61 to 4.31 (avg. 3.04), and sand and silt grain were dominant in the tailings. Ranges of paste pH were 2.1-9.5 in tailings (7.1-9.2 at magmatic, skarn and hydrothermal replacement deposits and 2.1-9.5 at hydrothermal vein deposits). Additionally, hydrothermal vein deposits could be reclassified into three categories: (1) paste pH>7.0, (2) 4.0

Contrasting Styles of Gold and Silver Mineralization in the Central and Southeastern Korea (한국 중부와 동남부지역 금·은광화작용의 성인적 특성)

  • Choi, Seon-Gyu;Choi, Sang-Hoon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.587-597
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    • 1995
  • Two distinct precious-metal mineralizations actively occur at central and southeastern Korea which display consistent relationships among geologic, geochemical and genetic environments. A large number of preciousmetal vein deposits in the central Korea occur in or near Mesozoic granite batholiths elongated in a NE-SW direction. Whereas, gold and/or silver deposits in the southeastern Korea occur within Cretaceous volcanic and sedimentary rocks. However, most of the precious-metal deposits in the southeastern Korea show characteristics of the silver-rich deposits than the gold-rich deposits in the central Korea. Two epochs of main igneous activities are recognized: a) Jurassic Daebo igneous activity between 121 and 183 Ma, and b) Cretaceous Bulgugsa igneous activity between 60 and 110 Ma. Precious-metal mineralization took place between 158 and 71 Ma, coinciding with portions of the two magmatic activities. Contrasts in the style of mineralization, together with radiometric age data and differences in geologic settings reflect the genetically variable natures of hydrothermal activities from middle Jurassic to late Cretaceous time. The compilation and re-evaluation of these data suggest that the genetic types of hydrothermal precious-metal vein deposits in the central and southeastern Korea varied with time. The Jurassic and early Cretaceous mineralizations are characterized by the Au-dominant type, but tend to change to the Au-Ag and/or Ag-dominant types at late Cretaceous. The Jurassic Au-dominant deposits commonly show several characteristics; prominent associations with pegmatites, simple massive vein morphologies, high fmeness values in ore-concentrating parts, and a distinctively simple ore mineralogy such as Fe-rich sphalerite, galena, chalcopyrite, Au-rich electrum, pyrrhotite and/or pyrite. The Cretaceous precious-metal deposits are generally characterized by some- features such as complex vein morphologies, low to medium fmeness values in the ore concentrates, and abundance of ore minerals including Ag sulfosalts, Ag sulfides, Ag tellurides and native silver. Mineralogical and fluid inclusion studies indicate that the Jurassic Au-dominant deposits in the central area were formed at the high temperature (about $300^{\circ}$ to $500^{\circ}C$) and pressure (about 4 to 5 kbars), whereas mineralizations of the Cretaceous Au-Ag and Ag-dominant deposits were occurred at the low temperature (about $200^{\circ}$ to $350^{\circ}C$) and pressure (<0.5 kbars) from the ore fluids containing more amounts of less-evolved meteoric waters.

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Development of Systematic Process for Estimating Commercialization Duration and Cost of R&D Performance (기술가치 평가를 위한 기술사업화 기간 및 비용 추정체계 개발)

  • Jun, Seoung-Pyo;Choi, Daeheon;Park, Hyun-Woo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.139-160
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    • 2017
  • Technology commercialization creates effective economic value by linking the company's R & D processes and outputs to the market. This technology commercialization is important in that a company can retain and maintain a sustained competitive advantage. In order for a specific technology to be commercialized, it goes through the stage of technical planning, technology research and development, and commercialization. This process involves a lot of time and money. Therefore, the duration and cost of technology commercialization are important decision information for determining the market entry strategy. In addition, it is more important information for a technology investor to rationally evaluate the technology value. In this way, it is very important to scientifically estimate the duration and cost of the technology commercialization. However, research on technology commercialization is insufficient and related methodology are lacking. In this study, we propose an evaluation model that can estimate the duration and cost of R & D technology commercialization for small and medium-sized enterprises. To accomplish this, this study collected the public data of the National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS) and the survey data provided by the Small and Medium Business Administration. Also this study will develop the estimation model of commercialization duration and cost of R&D performance on using these data based on the market approach, one of the technology valuation methods. Specifically, this study defined the process of commercialization as consisting of development planning, development progress, and commercialization. We collected the data from the NTIS database and the survey of SMEs technical statistics of the Small and Medium Business Administration. We derived the key variables such as stage-wise R&D costs and duration, the factors of the technology itself, the factors of the technology development, and the environmental factors. At first, given data, we estimates the costs and duration in each technology readiness level (basic research, applied research, development research, prototype production, commercialization), for each industry classification. Then, we developed and verified the research model of each industry classification. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. Firstly, it is reflected in the technology valuation model and can be used to estimate the objective economic value of technology. The duration and the cost from the technology development stage to the commercialization stage is a critical factor that has a great influence on the amount of money to discount the future sales from the technology. The results of this study can contribute to more reliable technology valuation because it estimates the commercialization duration and cost scientifically based on past data. Secondly, we have verified models of various fields such as statistical model and data mining model. The statistical model helps us to find the important factors to estimate the duration and cost of technology Commercialization, and the data mining model gives us the rules or algorithms to be applied to an advanced technology valuation system. Finally, this study reaffirms the importance of commercialization costs and durations, which has not been actively studied in previous studies. The results confirm the significant factors to affect the commercialization costs and duration, furthermore the factors are different depending on industry classification. Practically, the results of this study can be reflected in the technology valuation system, which can be provided by national research institutes and R & D staff to provide sophisticated technology valuation. The relevant logic or algorithm of the research result can be implemented independently so that it can be directly reflected in the system, so researchers can use it practically immediately. In conclusion, the results of this study can be a great contribution not only to the theoretical contributions but also to the practical ones.

Performance Analysis of a Deep Vertical Closed-Loop Heat Exchanger through Thermal Response Test and Thermal Resistance Analysis (열응답 실험 및 열저항 해석을 통한 장심도 수직밀폐형 지중열교환기의 성능 분석)

  • Shim, Byoung Ohan;Park, Chan-Hee;Cho, Heuy-Nam;Lee, Byeong-Dae;Nam, Yujin
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.459-467
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    • 2016
  • Due to the limited areal space for installation, borehole heat exchangers (BHEs) at depths deeper than 300 m are considered for geothermal heating and cooling in the urban area. The deep vertical closed-loop BHEs are unconventional due to the depth and the range of the typical installation depth is between 100 and 200 m in Korea. The BHE in the study consists of 50A (outer diameter 50 mm, SDR 11) PE U-tube pipe in a 150 mm diameter borehole with the depth of 300 m. In order to compensate the buoyancy caused by the low density of PE pipe ($0.94{\sim}0.96g/cm^3$) in the borehole filled with ground water, 10 weight band sets (4.6 kg/set) were attached to the bottom of U-tube. A thermal response test (TRT) and fundamental basic surveys on the thermophysical characteristics of the ground were conducted. Ground temperature measures around $15^{\circ}C$ from the surface to 100 m, and the geothermal gradient represents $1.9^{\circ}C/100m$ below 100 m. The TRT was conducted for 48 hours with 17.5 kW heat injection, 28.65 l/min at a circulation fluid flow rate indicates an average temperature difference $8.9^{\circ}C$ between inlet and outlet circulation fluid. The estimated thermophysical parameters are 3.0 W/mk of ground thermal conductivity and 0.104 mk/W of borehole thermal resistance. In the stepwise evaluation of TRT, the ground thermal conductivity was calculated at the standard deviation of 0.16 after the initial 13 hours. The sensitivity analysis on the borehole thermal resistance was also conducted with respect to the PE pipe diameter and the thermal conductivity of backfill material. The borehole thermal resistivity slightly decreased with the increase of the two parameters.

Evaluation of the CO2 Storage Capacity by the Measurement of the scCO2 Displacement Efficiency for the Sandstone and the Conglomerate in Janggi Basin (장기분지 사암과 역암 공극 내 초임계 이산화탄소 대체저장효율 측정에 의한 이산화탄소 저장성능 평가)

  • Kim, Seyoon;Kim, Jungtaek;Lee, Minhee;Wang, Sookyun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.469-477
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    • 2016
  • To evaluate the $CO_2$ storage capacity for the reservoir rock, the laboratory scale technique to measure the amount of $scCO_2$, replacing pore water of the reservior rock after the $CO_2$ injection was developed in this study. Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the $scCO_2$ displacement efficiency of the conglomerate and the sandstone in Janggi basin, which are classified as available $CO_2$ storage rocks in Korea. The high pressurized stainless steel cell containing two different walls was designed and undisturbed rock cores acquired from the deep drilling site around Janggi basin were used for the experiments. From the lab experiments, the average $scCO_2$ displacement efficiency of the conglomerate and the sandstone in Janggi basin was measured at 31.2% and 14.4%, respectively, which can be used to evaluate the feasibility of the Janggi basin as a $scCO_2$ storage site in Korea. Assuming that the effective radius of the $CO_2$ storage formations is 250 m and the average thickness of the conglomerate and the sandstone formation under 800 m in depth is 50 m each (from data of the drilling profile and the geophysical survey), the $scCO_2$ storage capacity of the reservoir rocks around the probable $scCO_2$ injection site in Janggi basin was calculated at 264,592 metric ton, demonstrating that the conglomerate and the sandstone formations in Janggi basin have a great potential for use as a pilot scale test site for the $CO_2$ storage in Korea.

PRC Maritime Operational Capability and the Task for the ROK Military (중국군의 해양작전능력과 한국군의 과제)

  • Kim, Min-Seok
    • Strategy21
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    • s.33
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    • pp.65-112
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    • 2014
  • Recent trends show that the PRC has stepped aside its "army-centered approach" and placed greater emphasis on its Navy and Air Force for a wider range of operations, thereby reducing its ground force and harnessing its economic power and military technology into naval development. A quantitative growth of the PLA Navy itself is no surprise as this is not a recent phenomenon. Now is the time to pay closer attention to the level of PRC naval force's performance and the extent of its warfighting capacity in the maritime domain. It is also worth asking what China can do with its widening naval power foundation. In short, it is time to delve into several possible scenarios I which the PRC poses a real threat. With this in mind, in Section Two the paper seeks to observe the construction progress of PRC's naval power and its future prospects up to the year 2020, and categorize time frame according to its major force improvement trends. By analyzing qualitative improvements made over time, such as the scale of investment and the number of ships compared to increase in displacement (tonnage), this paper attempts to identify salient features in the construction of naval power. Chapter Three sets out performance evaluation on each type of PRC naval ships as well as capabilities of the Navy, Air Force, the Second Artillery (i.e., strategic missile forces) and satellites that could support maritime warfare. Finall, the concluding chapter estimates the PRC's maritime warfighting capability as anticipated in respective conflict scenarios, and considers its impact on the Korean Peninsula and proposes the directions ROK should steer in response. First of all, since the 1980s the PRC navy has undergone transitions as the focus of its military strategic outlook shifted from ground warfare to maritime warfare, and within 30 years of its effort to construct naval power while greatly reducing the size of its ground forces, the PRC has succeeded in building its naval power next to the U.S.'s in the world in terms of number, with acquisition of an aircraft carrier, Chinese-version of the Aegis, submarines and so on. The PRC also enjoys great potentials to qualitatively develop its forces such as indigenous aircraft carriers, next-generation strategic submarines, next-generation destroyers and so forth, which is possible because the PRC has accumulated its independent production capabilities in the process of its 30-year-long efforts. Secondly, one could argue that ROK still has its chances of coping with the PRC in naval power since, despite its continuous efforts, many estimate that the PRC naval force is roughly ten or more years behind that of superpowers such as the U.S., on areas including radar detection capability, EW capability, C4I and data-link systems, doctrines on force employment as well as tactics, and such gap cannot be easily overcome. The most probable scenarios involving the PRC in sea areas surrounding the Korean Peninsula are: first, upon the outbreak of war in the peninsula, the PRC may pursue military intervention through sea, thereby undermining efforts of the ROK-U.S. combined operations; second, ROK-PRC or PRC-Japan conflicts over maritime jurisdiction or ownership over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands could inflict damage to ROK territorial sovereignty or economic gains. The PRC would likely attempt to resolve the conflict employing blitzkrieg tactics before U.S. forces arrive on the scene, while at the same time delaying and denying access of the incoming U.S. forces. If this proves unattainable, the PRC could take a course of action adopting "long-term attrition warfare," thus weakening its enemy's sustainability. All in all, thiss paper makes three proposals on how the ROK should respond. First, modern warfare as well as the emergent future warfare demonstrates that the center stage of battle is no longer the domestic territory, but rather further away into the sea and space. In this respect, the ROKN should take advantage of the distinct feature of battle space on the peninsula, which is surrounded by the seas, and obtain capabilities to intercept more than 50 percent of the enemy's ballistic missiles, including those of North Korea. In tandem with this capacity, employment of a large scale of UAV/F Carrier for Kill Chain operations should enhance effectiveness. This is because conditions are more favorable to defend from sea, on matters concerning accuracy rates against enemy targets, minimized threat of friendly damage, and cost effectiveness. Second, to maintain readiness for a North Korean crisis where timely deployment of US forces is not possible, the ROKN ought to obtain capabilities to hold the enemy attack at bay while deterring PRC naval intervention. It is also argued that ROKN should strengthen its power so as to protect national interests in the seas surrounding the peninsula without support from the USN, should ROK-PRC or ROK-Japan conflict arise concerning maritime jurisprudence. Third, the ROK should fortify infrastructures for independent construction of naval power and expand its R&D efforts, and for this purpose, the ROK should make the most of the advantages stemming from the ROK-U.S. alliance inducing active support from the United States. The rationale behind this argument is that while it is strategically effective to rely on alliance or jump on the bandwagon, the ultimate goal is always to acquire an independent response capability as much as possible.

World Logistics Evolution & Marketing Strategy for Korea's Enhanced Port Competition (세계물류발전과 한국의 항만경쟁력 강화를 위한 마케팅 전략)

  • Gim, Jin-Goo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.363-384
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    • 2008
  • This study aims at improving Korea's competitiveness in port logistics through marketing strategy with integrating the conceptual approach into the empirical one and combining both the oldest military treatise and the newest evaluating model in social science that was applied by the HFP(hierarchical fuzzy process) model enhanced by the KJ method. The empirical results of this study show Busan in the middle among subject ports. At present, Korea plays a reciprocal role in the port market in East Asia, but in the medium- and long-term, Korea's ports will vie together with most major ports in the East Asian region. A descriptive investigation shows that Korea's developing tasks in port logistics must be considered in the context of the direction for developing port policies, the necessity of expanding port facilities in the capital region, securing the sufficient traffic volume through the establishment of the hinterland linking system and its positive utilization, and reforming the direction for developing the global logistics through increased port competitiveness. In the short- and medium-term, Korea must use the opportunity factor of 'Growth and open door policy of China' as a geoeconomic advantage and to utilize Korea's ports as a gate to Chinese foreign trade. With the rise of China's economy, China also plays a significant role in both port and airport markets. Hence, the linking system between the two must be established to meet the expanding traffic volume, especially in the capital area. Moreover, it is necessary for Korea to secure port logistics through the establishment of the hinterland linking system and its positive utilization. The great accomplishment of this paper is to present strategies to increase Korea's port competitiveness in the rapidly changing environments of world logistics with the focus on both the oldest military strategic treatise and the newest empirical method in social science. In order to reinforce this study, it needs further compensative research because the evaluation structure could be subdivided with more extensive and precise criteria.

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Prediction of the Gold-silver Deposits from Geochemical Maps - Applications to the Bayesian Geostatistics and Decision Tree Techniques (지화학자료를 이용한 금${\cdot}$은 광산의 배태 예상지역 추정-베이시안 지구통계학과 의사나무 결정기법의 활용)

  • Hwang, Sang-Gi;Lee, Pyeong-Koo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.38 no.6 s.175
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    • pp.663-673
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    • 2005
  • This study investigates the relationship between the geochemical maps and the gold-silver deposit locations. Geochemical maps of 21 elements, which are published by KIGAM, locations of gold-silver deposits, and 1:1,000,000 scale geological map of Korea are utilized far this investigation. Pixel size of the basic geochemical maps is 250m and these data are resampled in 1km spacing for the statistical analyses. Relationship between the mine location and the geochemical data are investigated using bayesian statistics and decision tree algorithms. For the bayesian statistics, each geochemical maps are reclassified by percentile divisions which divides the data by 5, 25, 50, 75, 95, and $100\%$ data groups. Number of mine locations in these divisions are counted and the probabilities are calculated. Posterior probabilities of each pixel are calculated using the probability of 21 geochemical maps and the geological map. A prediction map of the mining locations is made by plotting the posterior probability. The input parameters for the decision tree construction are 21 geochemical elements and lithology, and the output parameters are 5 types of mines (Ag/Au, Cu, Fe, Pb/Zn, W) and absence of the mine. The locations for the absence of the mine are selected by resampling the overall area by 1 km spacing and eliminating my resampled points, which is in 750m distance from mine locations. A prediction map of each mine area is produced by applying the decision tree to every pixels. The prediction by Bayesian method is slightly better than the decision tree. However both prediction maps show reasonable match with the input mine locations. We interpret that such match indicate the rules produced by both methods are reasonable and therefore the geochemical data has strong relations with the mine locations. This implies that the geochemical rules could be used as background values oi mine locations, therefore could be used for evaluation of mine contamination. Bayesian statistics indicated that the probability of Au/Ag deposit increases as CaO, Cu, MgO, MnO, Pb and Li increases, and Zr decreases.