• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2021.05a
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• pp.35-37
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• 2021

Analyzing and predicting foreign tourists' demand is a crucial research topic in the tourism industry because it profoundly influences establishing and planning tourism policies. Since foreign tourist data is influenced by various external factors, it has a characteristic that there are many subtle changes over time. Therefore, in recent years, research is being conducted to design a prediction model by reflecting various external factors such as economic variables to predict the demand for tourists inbound. However, the regression analysis model and the recurrent neural network model, mainly used for time series prediction, did not show good performance in time series prediction reflecting various variables. Therefore, we design a foreign tourist demand prediction model that complements these limitations using a convolutional neural network. In this paper, we propose a model that predicts foreign tourists' demand by designing a one-dimensional convolutional neural network that reflects foreign tourist data for the past ten years provided by the Korea Tourism Organization and additionally collected external factors as input variables.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.131-143
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• 2017

As the number of tourists visiting Seoul are continuously increasing, the demand of an integrative tour pass is also increasing. However, only a few tour passes are available for the tourists in Seoul. In this paper, we propose a new tour pass called "Seoul Landmark Pass" targeting foreign individual travelers and investigate the marketability of the proposed tour pass. For the configuration of the Seoul Landmark Pass we listed 17 candidate attractions charging entrance fee in Seoul, referring to e-guidebook on Visit Seoul web site. Among them we selected 6 attractions using the checklist with the attributes that foreign tourists would prefer. We also performed SWOT analyzes on existing tour passes to determine the benefits to be included in the proposed tour pass. To investigate the marketability of the proposed tour pass we have surveyed the foreign individual tourists in Seoul. Using the survey data, we have analyzed the intent of purchase by age, visiting period, visiting purpose, frequency of visit, and nationality to identify target customers. The results show that the intent of purchase is high among the Chinese tourists at the age of twenties who visited Seoul for the first time or second times. Also, the individual tourists prefer to bundle T-money card with the proposed tour pass. Finally, we have provided a brief review of the Price Sensitivity Measurement (PSM) method and applied PSM to determine the acceptable price range and the optimal price of the proposed tour pass. The optimal price of the proposed tour pass is determined at 53,000 won including T-money card.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.10-18
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• 2018

As the volatility increasement of the number of tourist, there was been controversy over supply-demand imbalance in hotel market. The purpose of this study is to analysis on determinants of hotel occupancy rate in Jeju Island. The quantitative method is based on cointegrating regression, using an empirical dataset with hotel from 2000 to 2017. The primary results of research is briefly summarized as follows; First, there are high relationship between total hotel occupancy rate and hotel occupancy of foreign tourist. The volatility of hotel occupancy is caused by foreigner user than local tourists though local tourist high propotion of hotel occupancy in Jeju Island. Second, hotel occupancy of local tourist has not relationship with demand and supply variables. Because some hotel users are not local tourists but local resident, and effects to other variables of hotel consumer trend, accommodation such as Guest house, Airbnb. Third, there are high relationship between foreign hotel occupancy rate and demand-supply variables. These research imply that total management of supply-demand is very important to seek stability of hotel occupancy rate in Jeju Island. Also it can provide a useful solution regarding mismatch problem between supply-demand as well as development the systematic forecasting model for hotel market participants.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.5-11
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• 2012

Purpose - The objective of the paper is to explain both the price sensitivity of international tourists to South Korea and the price sensitivity of Korean tourists to international travel. The study examines long-run equilibrium relationships and Granger causal relationships between foreign exchange rates and inbound and outbound tourism demand in South Korea. Research design/ data / methodology - The study employs monthly time series data from January 1990 to September 2010. The paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship using the Johansen cointegration test approach after unit root tests. The short-run Granger causality was tested using the vector error correction model with the Wald test. Results - Hypothesis 1 testing whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates, inbound and outbound tourism demand is supported. Hypothesis 2 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in touristarrivals and expenditure is not supported. Hypothesis 3 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in tourist departures and expenditure is supported. Conclusions - The findings of this study show that the impacts of tourism price competitiveness are changing quite significantly with regard to destination competitiveness. In other words, the elasticity of tourism price over tourism demand has been moderated.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.9
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• pp.560-568
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• 2016

In Korea, management support has been given at the government level for activities to attract foreign patients. China and Russia ranked on top of the lists for in-bound medical tourists. The purpose of this study is to examine the experiences of medical tourists in Korea, the demand for information, and the level of satisfaction regarding their experiences. 100 cases of medical tourists from China and Russia were collected through the mail survey. While Chinese used beauty, skin-care related products, Russian experienced the grocery shopping and wellness related services. Most patients from both nationalities experienced the traditional food in Korea and wanted to know about beauty products. Chinese wanted to get more information about Korean traditional food Russian. Finally, Russian showed higher overall satisfaction scores than Chinese respondents. If we reflect these results as a contents, it can be useful to attract foreign patients.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.10
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• pp.757-769
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• 2009

This paper is intended to forecast the demand for tourism of fishing regions and find the public policies to activate it. The paper focuses on the east coast regions in Gangwon-do. The analysis was conducted through time series analyses and surveys of the tourists in the regions. The results of analyses showed that, while the number of tourists(both domestic and foreign) to the regions has increased, the regions have not been able to accommodate them enough to help improve economies of the regions. It was forecasted that the number of tourists will significantly increase in the future. However, that rates of increase, especially the rates of increase of foreign tourists, cannot be evaluated positively compared to those of the past. These results suggested a few local governmental policies to activate tourism in the regions.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.81-92
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• 2017

This study was to investigate the elasticity in tourism demand of Chinese tourists visiting Malaysia through ARDL models by using Chinese tourists arrivals, GDP, CPI, transportation costs and others. When China was implementing an open-door policy with foreign countries in the early 15th century, the movement of Chinese was very limited, and then communication between China and other countries was very weak. However, the Chinese government persistently and entirely implemented an open-door policy by participating in the World Trade Organization(WTO) in 2001. The Chinese government has opened the economy through foreign direct investment by providing various incentives for foreign investment. As a result, inbound and outbound Chinese movements increased in the early 21st century. China was one of the top five most visited tourist destinations in the world by 2016, and also Chinese tourists traveling abroad increased, so they made Malaysia a popular tourists destination because of increase sharply to around 1.41 million. This study examined the significance of major economic factors affecting the increase in Chinese tourists arriving in Malaysia. Other factors that induced their arrival included income, tourism prices, transportation costs and promotional activities. Short-run shocks from the Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of SARS were included to understand how tourism demand in Malaysia was affected. Finally this study found that the combination of the ARDL and the Error Correction Model were useful to statistically estimate the elasticities of tourism demand.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.21-35
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• 2017

The Korea Wave has been spread out all over the world since 1990s. Therefore, it can be seen that the Korea wave phenomenon is one of determinants of international tourism demand for Korea in addition to the macro factors such as population, GDP per capita, exchange rate, distance, etc. Existing studies have focused on analyzing the impacts of the Korea wave on the international tourism demand for Korea by using the aggregated data. However, the impacts of the Korea wave inducing tourism vary in different age groups. In this study, we conduct empirical analysis in order to explore how different the effects of Korea wave on the demand of foreign tourists visiting to Korea in different age groups are. The estimation results show that the Korea Wave influences most on international tourism demand for Korea in the age group of the under-20s. Noticeable is that the estimated effects of the Korea Wave on international tourism demand for Korea in the age group of the over-50s are higher than those in the 30s and 40s. This indicates that the parent generations visit Korea together with their young children who are most affected by the Korea Wave. Through this study, it is necessary to develop strategies for tourism marketing linked to children and parents, and to develop tourism products to increase the number of foreign visitors to Korea in the 30s and 40s.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.59-66
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• 2020

In this study, we consider the problem of forecasting the number of inbound foreigners visiting Korea. Forecasting tourism demand is an essential decision to plan related facilities and staffs, thus many studies have been carried out, mainly focusing on the number of inbound or outbound tourists. In order to forecast tourism demand, we use a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, as well as a SARIMAX model which additionally comprises an exogenous variable affecting the dependent variable, i.e., tourism demand. For constructing the forecasting model, we use a search procedure that can be used to determine the values of the orders of the SARIMA and SARIMAX. For the exogenous variable, we introduce factors that could cause the tourism demand reduction, such as the 9/11 attack, the SARS and MERS epidemic, and the deployment of THAAD. In this study, we propose a procedure, called Measuring Impact on Demand (MID), where the impact of each factor on tourism demand is measured and the value of the exogenous variable corresponding to the factor is determined based on the measurement. To show the performance of the proposed forecasting method, an empirical analysis was conducted where the monthly number of foreign visitors in 2019 were forecasted. It was shown that the proposed method can find more accurate forecasts than other benchmarks in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.56-64
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• 2014

Today, travelers are provided large amount information which includes Web sites and tourist magazines about introduction of tourist spot. Many approaches have been proposed to analyze the large amount of available information with the aim of discovering the most popular Points of Tourist Interest and routes. However, it is not easy for users to process the information in a short time. Therefore travelers prefer to receive pertinent information easier and have that information presented in a clear and concise manner. Whether you are looking for banks by company, foreign exchange services, free wireless hotspots, touristic attractions, campsites, supermarkets, restaurants, cinemas, The aim of POI Tourism Services is to enable tourists to find spots that only the locals know, giving the tourists opportunity to the tourists to explore new areas of the place like never before. This paper proposes find the scope for a personalized service for tourist "Special Interest Tourism" recommendation for tourists who travel within India & for the benefit of Foreign Nationals who visit the country. The major focus of the study is to understand the demand for such a service being integrated into the conventional tour package. The major findings made during the course of the show that the market for "Special Interest Tourism" based services stands at approximately 63%. Travel today is mainly for the people from the middle income group having a fixed budget while traveling and would like economic travel solutions that fit their budget. This accounts for a major part of the market for the service. Most tourist prefer to go on week end getaways or trips that last more than a week, this means that a specialized trip plan based on the travelers interests is feasible with these type of travelers. Maximum demand for "Special Interest Tourism" based services would be during the festive seasons.