• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.14 no.12
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• pp.79-87
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• 2016

Purpose - Since 1990, the sudden stop in capital flows has caused the economic crisis. The purpose of this research is to suggest the policy measures to mitigate the risk of the sudden stop in capital flows. To this end, we examine the theoretical framework and analyze the case study for countries which are faced with the sudden stop. Also we examine the structural problems of the foreign exchange market in Korea and derive the policy implications to prevent the sudden stop. Research design, data, and methodology - The criteria of whether the sudden stop in capital flows occurs are based upon Calvo et al. (2008). In case the proxy variable for the balance of capital account decreases from the average by over twice standard deviation, we determine that the sudden stop occurs for that country. The sample period is from January 1990 to December 2008, as in Calvo (2014). The sample countries are 17 developed countries and 19 emerging market countries, which are different from those of the previous papers as Agosin and Huaita (2012), and Calvo (2014). When the exchange market pressure index(EMPI) is deviated from the average by over three times standard deviation, we determine that the foreign exchange market is unstable for that country. Results - We find that the characteristics of the sudden stop in capital flows are the bunching or contagion among countries, the rapid drop in real effective exchange rate, and the huge decrease in foreign exchange reserves. Many countries tried to increase foreign exchange reserves and regulate capital flows. Also the foreign exchange market in Korea are found to be the volatile exchange rate, the vulnerable external debt and careless management of the foreign exchange derivatives transaction risk. Conclusions - To lessen the risk in the sudden stop of capital flows, this research suggests the some useful policy measures. To enhance the foreign exchange and distribution market stability, we should improve the price mechanism of exchange rate, hold the appropriate level of foreign exchange reserves, prevent excessive inflows of foreign exchange and promote sound transactions of foreign exchange derivatives.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.221-244
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• 2003

This study is aimed to investigate the effects of foreign exchange rates on stock market returns. For the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and Korea, the cross-correlation precedence of foreign exchange rate on stock market is found in the case of Germany and Korea. But that of stock market is not observed in any case. We performed three kinds of causality and exogeneity test of Granger test, Sims test and Geweke-Meese-Dent test. The analyses on the full period show the time-lag causal, exogeneous relation of foreign exchange rates with Granger, Sims and GMD test for Korea. The United Kingdom presents the significance with Granger and Sims test while Germany reveals the time-lag relation with Granger and GMD test. When we divide the period into two parts with the Louvre Accord, the first part give the less degree of time-lag relation. But in the second period the three kinds of causality and exogeneity test propose consistent time-lag relation with foreign exchange rates on stock markets for the United Kingdom and Korea with the three test methods. And Granger's test prove German foreign exchange market have a time-lag relation on stock market.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.22 no.50
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• pp.105-125
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• 1999

The results of analysis on foreign exchange market, stock and financial market after January of 1997 are that foreign exchange market will be affected by stock and financial market volatility about 1999. This means that stock and financial market are more stable than foreign exchange market. This also is supported by ‘financial market forecast of 1999 in Daewoo Economic Research Institute’. After won/dollar (end of period) will be increasing in 1,430 at second quarter of 1999, this is to downward 1,200 fourth quarter of 1999. This is somewhat based on government's higher exchange rate policy. But, after yield of corporate bond is to 11.0% at first quarter of 1999, this will be stable to 10.2% at fourth quarter. During the first quarter of 1999, yield of corporate bond is to somewhat increasing through sovereign debt and public bonds, technical adjustment of interest rate. After this, yield of corporate bond will be stable according to stability of price, magnification of money supply, restucturing of firms. So, stock market is favorably affected by stability of financial market. But, the pension and fund of USA, i.e., long-term portfolio investment fund, are injected through international firm's management. It is included by openness of audit, fair market about foreign investors. Finally, Moody's strong rating on the won-denominated bonds suggest that Korea's sovereign debt ratings could be restored to an investment grade in the near future. It sequentially includes inflow of foreign portfolio investment fund, fall of won/dollar foreign exchange rate (appreciation of won) and stability of yield of corporate bond.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.275-322
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• 2015

The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS) market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1) model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.543-552
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• 2021

The study examines how foreign capital inflows affect stock market development in Pakistan for the period from July 2008 to June 2018. Several components of foreign capital inflows were used for empirical analysis, namely, foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, and remittances. Further, market capitalization was used as a proxy for stock market development. The study uses an ARDL model for examining the long-run and short-run relationships between variables. We also analyze the bi-directional causality between the variables through the Granger causality test. Further, the presence of structural breaks was analyzed through the CUSUM and CUSUM Square test. The results suggest that in the long run, remittances have a positive and significant relationship with stock market development. However, foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, and USD-PKR exchange rate do not have a significant impact on stock market development. The results also suggest that in the short run there is a negative relationship between FDI, USD-PKR exchange rate and market capitalization. Contrarily, we found a positive relationship between FPI and market capitalization. The results of Granger causality test suggest that remittances and USD-PKR exchange rate have a causal relationship with stock market development. Finally, we found no evidence of structural breaks in the dataset.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.459-468
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• 2005

International contractors must consider the substantial risks related to unexpected foreign exchange fluctuation incurred by conducting their business and using foreign currencies in foreign countries. Most international contractors attempt to minimize foreign exchange exposure within a manageable range because it may influence the company's fundamental financial structure, reduce market value or profit margins, or disrupt ongoing and future projects. This research provides a qualitative study of existing foreign exchange exposure (transaction, operation, and translation exposure) and current & effective foreign exchange risk management in American and Korean international contractors, as they represent both new and long-time members of the global construction market. Finally, recommendations of techniques for new and existing international contractors to minimize and better manage foreign exchange risk will be offered.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.103-120
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• 2022

This paper studies the possibility of options as an instrument for central bank to intervene foreign exchange market. As opposed to spot transaction or forward transaction, which impacts spot exchange rate only once, currency options can continuously resist a directional speculative pressure on spot market due to the dynamic delta hedging of OTC currency options market maker. This research also analyzes whether and how central banks can use currency options to lower exchange rate volatility and maintain (implicit) target zones in foreign exchange markets. It argues that short position rather than long position in options will result in market makers dynamically hedging their long option exposure in a stabilizing manner, consistent with the first objective. Selling a "Strangle" allows a central bank to increase the credibility of its commitment to a target zone, and could have a lower expected cost than spot market interventions. However, this strategy also exposes the central bank to an unlimited loss potential. Therefore these kinds of intervention strategies must be used in the short run and temporarily.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.103-122
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• 2009

The paper is basically designed to investigate any existence of co-movement among foreign exchange market, goods market, and monetary market implemented by relative PPP and interest rate parity. And, rational expectation and GARCH-M model are employed for an empirical application. The result revealed that since the co-movement among the markets is hardly found, an efficiency of foreign exchange market is independent from any shocks from the goods market and the monetary market. Whereas, the exchange rate is strongly effected by a real interest rate parity. To this end, the real interest rate should be a key policy instrument to stabilize the foreign exchange market.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.135-140
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• 2022

In the domestic stock market, the capital market opened in January 1992, and the proportion of foreign capital has steadily increased, accounting for 30% of the domestic market in Overall stock market trend infers that the domestic stock market is more influenced by foreign issues than domestic issues. The trading trend of foreign capital displays a similar flow to exchange rate fluctuations,; thus, preparing an investment strategy by using the Pearson analyzing method the effect of exchange rates of foreign capital trading, fluctuations in exchange rates, and predicting one of the macroeconomic indicators will yield high returns in the stock market. Therefore, this research was conducted to help investment by predicting foreign variables comparing and analyzing exchange rates and foreign capital trading patterns, and predicting appropriate time for buying and selling.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

The study examines stock prices (LOGKSE) and exchange rate (LOGPK)-Pakistani Rupee vis-à-vis US Dollar- interactions in Pakistan. This study employs a multivariate VAR-GARCH model using monthly data from January 2012 to October 2020. The results of the Johansen cointegration test show that there is no relationship between Foreign Exchange Market and Stock Market in the long run. In the short-run, stock exchange returns are affected slightly negatively by the changes in the foreign exchange market, but the foreign exchange market does not seem to be affected by the ups and downs of the stock exchange. The VAR model and Granger Causality show that both markets are strongly influenced by their own lagged values rather than by the lagged values of one another and show weak or no correlation between the two markets. Volatility persistence is observed in both the stock and foreign exchange markets, implying that shocks and past period volatility are major drivers of future volatility in both markets. Thus greater uncertainties today will induce panic and consequently generate higher volatility in the future period. This phenomenon has been observed many times on Pakistan Stock Exchange especially. The results have important implications for local international investors in portfolio diversification decisions and risk hedging strategies.