• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.387-396
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• 2014

The GDP gap (also called the output gap) is the difference between potential GDP and actual GDP. Potential GDP is the maximum sustainable output that is achieved when the resources (labor and capital) are used to capacity. Central banks pursuing price and employment stability consider the output gap as an informative variable for monetary policy since the output gap could be regarded as a proxy of demand-supply imbalances. In this paper, the GDP gap of Korea is decomposed following the filtering method in the previous research, and major factors that affect the variation of GDP gap are investigated based on the decomposed series. The analysis results by the Super Smoother algorithm used in Fox et al. (2003)and Fox and Zurlinden (2006) are found consistent with theory. Much of the variation of nominal GDP gap is explained by Total Factor Productivity(TFP) gap, which is the change of productivity due to recent technological innovation and environmental change. It is also found that variation of terms of trade significantly affects the GDP gap of Korea due to its high dependency on international trade; however, the effect of the domestic price is not negligible like other countries.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.13 no.12
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• pp.33-39
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• 2022

Purpose: This research investigates the paths of some important economic variables: government domestic product (GDP), capital accumulation, unemployment rates. Decreasing GDP, declining capital accumulation and higher unemployment affect to South Korea economy. The macroeconomic policies discussed are all capital financed accumulation policy and an enactment of unemployment regulation. Research design, data and methodology: The GDP, capital accumulation rates and unemployment rates are the main macroeconomic issues in the South Korea. This research studies the correlations of the GDP, capital accumulation, and unemployment rates by time series data from 2000 to 2005 in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR). Results: The first, GDP relates a positive effect between the GDP and capital accumulation in the long term. The second, there is the negative relationship between GDP and unemployment rates. Economic growth was strongly supported by employment growth and by declining unemployment. The third, There is positive relationship between unemployment rates and capital accumulation. Conclusions: This research provides that fiscal policy introduce to increasing GDP, private investments and employment rates. The GDP should be major on capital accumulation to increase employment rates in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.57-62
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• 2003

In order to implement SGR in Korea, it is necessary to analyse the factors affecting the increase of Korea Medical Insurance Cost. GDP and MEI may substitute the diverse factors affecting the Medical Cost Uprise. In this article, the GDP and MEI influence on the rates of fee schedule is measured when we implement SGR System in Korea. The various cases are made to analyse the rates of fee change. In Korea, if we implement the SGR system successfully. we should make a considerate formula using GDP and MEI because the rate of change in GDP and MEI is much more bigger than that of U.S.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.37-46
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• 2020

The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

• Cement
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• s.202
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• pp.4-8
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• 2014

현대경제연구원은 북한의 경제수준을 평가하고 국제비교를 위해 보건지표와 곡물생산량을 활용하여 'HRI 북한 GDP 추정모형'을 개발하고 북한의 1인당 명목 GDP를 산출하여 이를 매년 발표하고 있다. 여기서는 현대경제연구원의 '2013년 북한 GDP 추정과 남북한의 경제 사회상 비교' 보고서를 통해 2013년 북한의 1인당 명목 GDP를 추정하고 남북한 산업구조와 경제적 사회적 차이점에 대해 살펴본다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.217-227
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• 2015

This study conducted case studies in order to suggest the improvement of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) deflator method which is adopted on calculating fluctuation rate on BTL (Build-Transfer-Lease) sewer rehabilitation projects in Jeju. As a result, because GDP deflator method calculates fluctuation rate by each quarterly, the fluctuation rate of GDP deflator method is higher than it of index adjustment rate method. And GDP deflator method cannot reflect real price because of applying fixed index in whole construction cost for calculating fluctuation rate. Especially, the notification day - the base point influences fluctuation rate and fluctuation amount strongly in GDP deflator method.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1377-1386
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• 2015

GDP gap is closely related with economic activity of a country as a whole, especially with the economic fluctuations which is called business cycle. GDP gap is regarded as an important variable for the monetary policy of the central bank because it provides information on the excess demand pressures and employment matters. However, GDP gap may not provide enough information of the effect of recent economic structural change or the environmental change of domestic and external economic condition. In this paper, the GDP is decomposed by statistical filtering techniques and various models are fitted to estimate the influence of GDP gap on Inflation and see if it has been changed. Analysis results show that the influence of GDP gap on inflation decreased in the 2000s while that of global GDP gap increased. These results also support that recent low inflation rate is due to the change of overseas economic condition, such as a slowdown in exports resulting from the global recession, as well as domestic factors.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.379-396
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• 2021

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study the rational payoff from the standpoint of foreign investors and the government when the government issues GDP-linked bonds to foreign investors. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, the prices of 12 types of GDP-linked bond structures, which are classified according to the calculation cycle of the rate of change of linked GDP, the currency issued, and whether options are embedded, were evaluated. The Fama-French 3-factor model and the GMM-SDF model are used in the asset pricing model, and domestic and overseas investors used different basis assets. Findings - The KRW premium for US investors is estimated to be 43bp on a quarterly basis and 30bp on an annual basis, respectively, meaning that when the government issues bonds in KRW, the interest rate paid to US investors will be reduced by 30bp to 160bp (annually converted). Using the Fama-French 3 factor model, the KRW premium is the risk premium for the US market beta, meaning that if US investors do not intend to invest in US market beta, it is advantageous to receive an additional interest rate by investing in USD-denominated GDP-linked bonds. Korea's GDP- linked bond give US investors diversified investment utility, so they are willing to incorporate Korean GDP-linked bonds even if -150bp of interest is deducted from the structure issued to Korean investors. And as a result of estimating the value of the option through the GDP-linked bond with options that provides a floor for guaranteeing the principal, the value of the option linked to the annual GDP issued in dollars was the lowest. Research implications or Originality - Issuing dollar-denominated GDP-linked bonds linked to annual GDP with the option of guaranteeing the principal by the government is a way to increase investment opportunities for US investors and achieve financial stability of the government.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.58-67
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• 2014

If we compare the GDP per Capita for the last 20 years between Philippines and other ASEAN countries, Philippines remains in the lowest on GDP per Capita. This paper is trying to find out the possible reasons for the low growth rate of the GDP per Capita in the Philippines. 53 years data from the World Bank are used explore the relationships between the GDP per Capita and eight economic indicators to run three time series models and one to one regression. Three indicators, namely, consumer price index, gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP and population are remarked with possible contribution to the low growth rate of the GDP per capita of the Philippines.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.159-172
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• 2017

In a typical trend-cycle decomposition of GDP, the trend component is usually assumed to follow a random walk process. This paper considers an ARIMA trend and assesses the validity of the ARIMA trend model. I construct univariate and bivariate unobserved-components(UC) models, allowing the ARIMA trend. Estimation results using U.S. data are favorable to the ARIMA trend models. I, also, compare the forecasting performance of the UC models. Dynamic pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting exercises are implemented with recursive estimations. I find that the bivariate model outperforms the univariate model, the smoothed estimates of trend and cycle components deliver smaller forecasting errors compared to the filtered estimates, and, most importantly, allowing for the ARIMA trend can lead to statistically significant gains in forecast accuracy, providing support for the ARIMA trend model. It is worthy of notice that trend shocks play the main source of the output fluctuation if the ARIMA trend is allowed in the UC model.