• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.1651-1664
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• 2013

Precise analysis on deterioration processes of road pavements is not so simple matter due to severe uncertainty originated from a lot of explanatory variables engaged in. For those reasons, most analytical models for pavement deterioration prediction have often preferred to probabilistic approaches than deterministic models. However, the general probabilistic approaches that treat overall characteristics of population or entire sample would not be suitable for providing detail or localized information on their changing process. Considering the aspects, this paper aimed to suggest a stochastic disaggregation method to analyze the localized deterioration speeds and its variances changed by time and condition states. In addition, life expectancies and their uncertainty were estimated by probabilistic algorithm using the disaggregated stochastic process. For an empirical study, pavement inspection data (crack) accumulated from 2003 to 2010 from Korean national highway network was applied. This study can contribute to securing reliability of life cycle cost analysis, which is one of the primary analyses in road asset management, with much advanced deterioration forecasting functions. In addition, it would be meaningful trials as fundamental research for preventive maintenance strategy that demands essential understanding on changing process of the deterioration speed of pavement.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.29 no.A
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• pp.101-110
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• 2009

Due to frequent occurrence of a localized torrential downpour caused by global warming and change of outflow tendency caused by rapid urbanization and industrialization, risk analysis must be carried out in levee design with uncertainty. In this study, reliability analysis was introduced to quantitatively evaluate the overtopping risk of levee by the uncertainty. First of all, breaking function was established as a function of flood stage and height of levee. All variables of breaking function were considered as random variables following any distribution functions, and the risk was defined as the possibility that the flood stage is formed higher than height of levee. The risk evaluation model was developed with AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach). The flood stage computed by 2-D numerical model FESWMS-2DH was used as input data for the model of levee risk evaluation. Risk for levee submergence were quantitatively presented for levee of Wol-Song-Cheon.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.629-637
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• 2001

The objective of this study was to identify the cultural characteristics affecting advertising contents of the consumer products. Hofstedes(1991) five cultural characteristics such as individualism-collectivism, power distance, masculinity-feminity, avoidance of uncertainty, confucian dynamism were used. Ten kinds of consumer products were included and data were collected from France, Japan, Korea, and U. S. during 1999∼2000. All ads were evaluated and compared their cultural characteristics in terms of country, product involvement and usage, and magazine type. ANOVA, Duncan test, and Pearson correlation-coefficient were applied to analyze data. The results were shown as follows: First, most ads tended to be individual, less power oriented, feministic, and showed high tendency of uncertainty avoidance as well as long term confucianism for all the countries. And some cultural characteristics were different among countries. Japan, France, U. S. and Korea in order showed higher individualism and lower power distance. Also Korea and Japan showed relatively short term confucian culture while U. S. and France did ling term perspectives in the ads. Second, product involvement and usage type had a significant impact on the characteristics of individualism-collectivism and feminity-masculinity. That is, product ads of lower involvement and personal use were likely to show individualistic messages and to have more feministic appeals. Third, magazine type had an impact on some cultural characteristics. Womens magazines would have more individualistic, less power oriented, and feministic appeals of ads. In conclusion, global ads should be localized and differentiated in terms of some cultural characteristics and differ depending on product characteristics.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.617-626
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• 2022

To effectively monitor the variety of distributions of neutron flux, fuel power or temperatures in the reactor core, usually the ex-core and in-core neutron detectors are employed. The thermocouples for temperature measurement are installed in the coolant inlet or outlet of the respective fuel assemblies. It is necessary to reconstruct the measurement information of the whole reactor position. However, the reading of different types of detector in the core reflects different aspects of the 3D power distribution. The feasibility of reconstruction the core three-dimension power distribution by using different combinations of in-core, ex-core and thermocouples detectors is analyzed in this paper to synthesize the useful information of various detectors. A comparison of multilayer perceptron (MLP) network and radial basis function (RBF) network is performed. RBF results are more extreme precision but also more sensitivity to detector failure and uncertainty, compare to MLP networks. This is because that localized neural network could offer conservative regression in RBF. Adding random disturbance in training dataset is helpful to reduce the influence of detector failure and uncertainty. Some convolution neural networks seem to be helpful to get more accurate results by use more spatial layout information, though relative researches are still under way.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.221-233
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• 2018

Recently, the flood damage by the localized heavy rainfall and typhoon have been frequently occurred due to the climate change. Accurate rainfall forecasting and flood runoff estimates are needed to reduce such damages. However, the uncertainties are involved in guage rainfall, radar rainfall, and the estimated runoff hydrograph from rainfall-runoff models. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify the uncertainty of rainfall by generating a probabilistic radar rainfall ensemble and confirm the uncertainties of hydrological models through the analysis of the simulated runoffs from the models. The blending technique is used to estimate a single integrated or an optimal runoff hydrograph by the simulated runoffs from multi rainfall-runoff models. The radar ensemble is underestimated due to the influence of rainfall intensity and topography and the uncertainty of the rainfall ensemble is large. From the study, it will be helpful to estimate and predict the accurate runoff to prepare for the disaster caused by heavy rainfall.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.241-242
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• 2016

Recent abnormal climate change induces localized heavy rainfall and extreme disasters such as debris flow near urban area. Thus many researches have been conducted to estimate and prevent, especially in focus of physical behavior of debris flow. Even though it is hardly to consider overall related parameters to estimate the extent and degree of directly or indirectly damages due to debris flow. Those analytic restraint would be caused by the diversity and complexity of regional topographic and hydrodynamic characteristics of debris flow inside. We have utilized the Bayesian method to compensate the uncertainty due to the complex characteristics of it after analyzing the numerical results from FLO-2D and field measurement data. Revised values by field measurements will enhance the numerical results and the missing parameters during numerical simulation will be supplemented with this methodology. As a final outcome in this study, the risk index of debris flow damage will be suggested to provide quantitative estimation in terms of hazard protection including the impact on buildings, especially in inner and outer of urban area.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.1105-1114
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• 2022

A study on a method to overcome the limitations of the topographical and hydrological observation environment for estimating the QPE with high consistency with the ground rainfall by utilizing the spatiotemporal observation advantages of the rainfall radar for use in flood forecasting, and quantitative observations of localized rainfall due to these limiting conditions Uncertainty should be identified in terms of flood analysis. Against this background, in this study, 22 major heavy rain events in 2016 were analyzed for each of Mt. Biseul (BSL), Mt. Sobaek (SBS), Mt. Gari (GRS), Mt. Mohu (MHS), and Mt. Seodae (SDS) to determine the observation distance and altitude. The uncertainty of observation was quantified and an error map was derived. As a result of the analysis, it was found that, on average, the rainfall radar exceeded 10% up to 100 km and 30% over 150 km. Based on the average radar operating altitude angle, it was found that the error for the altitude was approximately 10% or less up to the second altitude angle, 20% at the third or higher altitude angle, and more than 50% at the fourth altitude angle or higher.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.211-216
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• 2008

Recently a lot of researches have been conducted on the progressive collapse of structures which is the total collapse of structures initiated by localized damage. Most of the previous studies on the field of progressive collapse have followed deterministic approach without considering uncertainty involved in design variables, which results in unknown reliability of the analysis results. In this study the sensitivity analyses are carried out with design variables such as yield strength, live load, damping ratio, and elastic modulus on the vertical deflection of the joint from which a column is suddenly removed. The Monte Calro simulation, tornado diagram method, and the first order second moment method(FOSM) are applied for the sensitivity study. According to the nonlinear static analysis results, the vertical deflection is most affected by the variation of yield strength of beams. The nonlinear dynamic analyses show that the behaviour of model structures is highly sensitive to variation of the yield strength of beams and the structural damping ratio.

• Clean Technology
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.449-456
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• 2014

There has been increasing concerns for the problems of water security in countries, caused by the frequent occurrence of localized drought due to the climate change and uncertainty of water balance. The importance of fresh water is emphasized as considerable amount of usable fresh water is utilized for power generation sector producing electricity. PV power system, the source of renewable energy, consumes water for the every steps of life cycle: manufacturing, installation, and operation. However, it uses relatively less water than the traditional energy sources such as thermal power and nuclear power sources. In this study, to find out the use of water for the entire process of PV power system from extracting raw materials to operating the system, the footprint of water in the whole process is measured to be analyzed. Measuring the result, the PV water footprint of value chain was $0.989m^3/MWh$ and the water footprint appeared higher specially in poly-Si and solar cell process. The following two reasons explain it: poly-Si process is energy-intensive process and it consumes lots of cooling water. In solar cell process, deionized water is used considerably for washing a high-efficiency crystalline silicon. It is identified that PV system is the source using less water than traditional ones, which has a critical value in saving water. In discussing the future energy policy, it is vital to introduce the concept of water footprint as a supplementary value of renewable energy.