• 한국지구과학회지
• /
• 제30권3호
• /
• pp.282-293
• /
• 2009

본 연구는 겨울철과 여름철에 8개의 다른 MJO 전파 위상에 따라 동아시아 지역에서 강수와 기온, 순환 아노말리에 대하여 매든-줄리안 진동(MJO)/계절내 진동(ISO)의 영향에 대하여 고찰하였다. MJO의 중심이 동인도양에 위치한 3번 위상과 MJO의 중심이 서반구에 위치한 8번 위상에서 한반도의 겨울철 강수 패턴이 비선형적으로 나타난다. 이 두 위상에서 MJO의 강도가 2보다 작은 경우 양의 아노말리가 나타나는 반면에 2보다 큰 경우 음의 강수 아노말리가 나타났다. MJO 강도가 클 때 나타나는 이러한 음의 강수 아노말리는 한반도가 고기압성 아노말리 영역에 놓이고 북풍계열의 바람에 의한 한랭 건조한 바람의 이류에 의해 형성된다. 또한 본 연구에서는 여름철 ISO의 동진 및 북진 전파 위상에 따른 강수와 순환의 반응을 연구하였다.

• 한국지구과학회지
• /
• 제44권3호
• /
• pp.185-195
• /
• 2023

The prolonged and heavy East Asian summer precipitation in 2020 may have been caused by an enhanced Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which requires evaluation using forecast models. We examined the performance of GloSea6, an operational forecast model, in predicting the East Asian summer precipitation during July 2020, and investigated the role of MJO in the extreme rainfall event. Two experiments, CON and EXP, were conducted using different convection schemes, 6A and 5A, respectively to simulate various aspects of MJO. The EXP runs yielded stronger forecasts of East Asian precipitation for July 2020 than the CON runs, probably due to the prominent MJO realization in the former experiment. The stronger MJO created stronger moist southerly winds associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high, which led to increased precipitation. The strengthening of the MJO was found to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian summer precipitation. However, it is important to note that this study does not discuss the impact of changes in the convection scheme on the modulation of MJO. Further research is needed to understand other factors that could strengthen the MJO and improve the forecast.

• 대기
• /
• 제32권3호
• /
• pp.223-233
• /
• 2022

Recent studies have shown that Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is modulated by Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during the boreal winter; MJO becomes more active and predictable during the easterly phase of QBO (EQBO) than the westerly phase (WQBO). Despite growing evidences, climate models fail to capture the QBO-MJO connection. One of the possible reasons is a weak static stability change in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) by neglecting QBO-induced ozone change in the model. Here, we investigate the possible impact of the ozone-radiative feedback in the tropical UTLS on the QBO-MJO connection by integrating the Global Seasonal Forecasting System 5 (GloSea5) model. A set of experiments is conducted by prescribing either the climatological ozone or the observed ozone at a given year for the EQBO-MJO event in January 2006. The realistic ozone improves the temperature simulation in the UTLS. However, its impacts on the MJO are not evident. The MJO phase and amplitude do not change much when the ozone is prescribed with observation. While it may suggest that the ozone-radiative feedback plays a rather minor role in the QBO-MJO connection, it could also result from model biases in UTLS temperature and not-well organized MJO in the model.

• 대기
• /
• 제32권3호
• /
• pp.235-246
• /
• 2022

A large number of MJO skill metrics and process-oriented MJO simulation metrics have been developed by previous studies including the MJO Working Group and Task Force. To assess models' successes and shortcomings in the MJO simulation, a standardized set of diagnostics with the additional set of dynamics-oriented diagnostics are applied. The Global Coupled (GC) model developed for the operation of the climate prediction system is used with the comparison between the GC2 and GC3.1. Two GC models successfully capture three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamic structure as well as coherent eastward propagation from the reference regions of the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The low-level moisture convergence (LLMC) ahead of the MJO deep convection, the low-level westerly and easterly associated with the coupled Rossby-Kelvin wave and the upper-level divergence are simulated successfully. The GC3.1 model simulates a better three-dimensional structure of MJO and thus reproduces more realistic eastward propagation. In GC2, the MJO convection following the LLMC near and east of the Maritime Continent is much weaker than observation and has an asymmetric distribution of both low and upper-level circulation anomalies. The common shortcomings of GC2 and GC3.1 are revealed in the shorter MJO periods and relatively weak LLMC as well as convective activity over the western Indian Ocean.

• 대기
• /
• 제21권2호
• /
• pp.143-149
• /
• 2011

A new multi-timescale analysis method, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), is used to diagnose the variation of the MJO activity determined by 850hPa and 200hPa zonal winds from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis data for the 56-yr period from 1950 to 2005. The results show that MJO activity can be decomposed into 9 quasi-periodic oscillations and a trend. With each level of contribution of the quasi-periodic oscillation discussed, the bi-seasonal oscillation, the interannual oscillation and the trend of the MJO activity are the most prominent features. The trend increases almost linearly, so that prior to around 1978 the activity of the MJO is lower than that during the latter part. This may be related to the tropical sea surface temperature(SST). It is speculated that the interdecadal change in the MJO activity appeared in around 1978 is related to the warmer SST in the equatorial warm pool, especially over the Indian Ocean.

• 대기
• /
• 제20권3호
• /
• pp.333-341
• /
• 2010

The stratiform rain fraction is investigated in the tropical boreal winter Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Rader data for the 11-yr period from 1998 to 2008. Composite analysis shows that the MJO/ISO produces larger stratiform rain rate than convective rain rate for nearly all phases following the propagating MJO/ISO deep clouds, with the greatest stratiform rainfall amount when the MJO/ISO center is located over the central-eastern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The fraction of the intraseasonally filtered stratiform rainfall compared to total rainfall (i.e., convective plus stratiform rainfall) amounts to 53~56%, which is 13~16% larger than the stratiform rain fraction estimated for the same data on seasonal-to-annual time scales by Schumacher and Houze. This indicates that the MJO/ISO exhibits the organized rainfall process which is characterized by the shallow convection/heating at the incipient phase and the subsequent flare-up of strong deep convection, followed by the development of stratiform clouds at the upper troposphere.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제8권6호
• /
• pp.645-652
• /
• 1999

In order to simulate and investigate the major characteristics of El Nino/Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and Madden Jullian Oscillation(MJO), an intermediate type atmosphere-ocean coupled model is developed and their results are examined. The atmosphere model is a time-dependent non-linear perturbation moist model which can determine the internal heating for itself. The counterpart of the atmosphere model is GCM-type tropical ocean model which has fine horizontal and vertical grid resolutions. In the coupled experiment, warm SST anomaly and increased precipitation and eastward wind and current anomalies associated with ENSO and MJO are properly simulated in Pacific and Indian Oceans. In spite of some discrepancies in simulation MJO, the observed atmospheric and oceanic low-frequency characteristics in the tropics are successfully identified. Among them, positive SST anomalies centered at the 100m-depth of tropical eastern-central Pacific due to the eastward advection of warm water and reduced equatorial upwelling, and negative anomalies in the Indian and western Pacific seem to be the fundamental features of tropical low-frequency oscillations.

• 대기
• /
• 제26권2호
• /
• pp.337-345
• /
• 2016

This paper is to assess the state of climate over East Asia and Korea during 2015/16 winter. There was a distinct intraseasonal climate variation during the period: the record-breaking warmth in December 2015 vs. strong cold surge outbreaks in January 2016. It is suggested that the anomalous warming in December 2015 was contributed by an intensification of Kuroshio anticyclone associated with 2015/16 El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and polar vortex intensification. In January 2016, a strong cold surge outbroke over East Asia bringing severe cold more than two weeks. The cold surge was a blocking-type one which followed extremely negative AO developed from early January. It was suggested that the intensification of cold surge might be contributed indirectly by a strong Arctic warming and MJO activity during the period.

• 대기
• /
• 제26권1호
• /
• pp.59-72
• /
• 2016

The comparison of prediction errors in geopotential height, temperature, and precipitation forecasts is made quantitatively to evaluate medium-range forecast skills between Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and Unified Model (UM) in operation by Korea Meteorological Administration during 2014. In addition, the performances in prediction of sea surface temperature anomaly in NINO3.4 region, Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, and tropical storms in western north Pacific are evaluated. The result of evaluations appears that the forecast skill of UM with lower values of root-mean square error is generally superior to GloSea5 during forecast periods (0 to 12 days). The forecast error tends to increase rapidly in GloSea5 during the first half of the forecast period, and then it shows down so that the skill difference between UM and GloSea5 becomes negligible as the forecast time increases. Precipitation forecast of GloSea5 is not as bad as expected and the skill is comparable to that of UM during 10-day forecasts. Especially, in predictions of sea surface temperature in NINO3.4 region, MJO index, and tropical storms in western Pacific, GloSea5 shows similar or better performance than UM. Throughout comparison of forecast skills for main meteorological elements and weather extremes during medium-range, the effects of initial and model errors in atmosphere-ocean coupled model are verified and it is suggested that GloSea5 is useful system for not only seasonal forecasts but also short- and medium-range forecasts.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.312-312
• /
• 2019

지구온난화로 인하여 기상학적 변동성 증가 및 수질, 수자원, 생태계 등의 다양한 영역에 영향을 야기하고 있으며, 이를 통한 피해가 전 세계적으로 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 최근 다양한 분야에서 수문학적 빈도에 영향을 미친다고 알려진 AO(Arctic Oscillation), NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation), ENSO(El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation), PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation), MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation)등의 외부인자중 SST, MJO를 활용하여 계절단위의 수문량 정도에서 기상학적 변량과 관측유역 강수량의 관계를 정립하고 발생 가능한 24시간 지속시간 극치강수량을 모의하였다. 이를 위하여 Bayesian 통계기법을 이용한 비정상성 빈도해석모형을 근간으로 외부 기상인자에 의한 계절강수량 예측모형인 계층적 베이지안 네트워크(Hierarchical Bayesian Network, HBN)를 구축한 후 산정된 결과를 입력 자료로 하여 직접적으로 일단위 이하의 극치강수량을 상세화 시킬 수 있는 베타 모델(four parameter beta, 4PB)을 연계한 계층적 베이지안 네트워크 베타모델(Hierarchical Bayesian Network-4beta Model, HBN4BM)을 개발하여 기상변동성을 고려한 상세화 모형을 개발하였다. 여름강수량 산정 결과 한강 유역의 경우 2016년은 관측값 573.85mm, 모의 값 567.15mm를 나타내어 약 1.2%의 오차를 나타냈으며, 2017년 및 2018년은 4.5%, 6.8%의 오차에서 모의가 이루어졌다. 금강의 경우 2016년은 다른 연도에 비하여 35.2%라는 큰 오차를 보였지만 불확실성 구간에서 모의가 이루어 졌으며, 2017년 및 2018년은 0.3%, 2.1%의 작은 오차가 발생하였다. 24시간 모의 결과는 최소 0.7%에서 최대 27.1%의 오차를 나타냈으며, 평균적으로 16.4%의 오차 결과가 모의되어 모형의 신뢰성을 확인하였다.