• Title/Summary/Keyword: MONETARY ESTIMATE

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주가수익률에 대한 각국별 거시경제변수의 영향분석 - VAR모형 사용 -

  • Kim, Jong-Gwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.537-557
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    • 2005
  • The estimate on volatility of stock price is related with optimum of portfolio and Important for allocation of capital asset. If the volatility of stock price is varied according to macroeconomic variables on monetary policy and industrial production, it will assist capital asset to allocate. This paper is related with stock market volatilities on macroeconomic variables in U.S. and Europe, Korea. And, it Is pertain to vary in time of this variables. Thus, this paper is related with volatilities of monetary and physical macroeconomic variables on basis of statistics. And, it is ranged front capital investment to portfolio allocation. Also, this paper takes out of sample forecast and study more after this. In case Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, the relative importance of monetary policy and Industrial production Is different from these countries. In case Italy and the Netherlands, monetary policy is primary factor at stabilizing for volatility of stock price. In case Korea, increasing monetary policy and industrial production is positively affected stock market. It is that the positive effect of stock price is caused by mollifying monetary policy and economic growth. Specially, this conclusion is similar to US. In Korea, gradual increase in monetary and industrial production is necessary to stability of stock market. It is different to previous results on basis of increasing stock price of money in long period.

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Korea's Inflation Expectations with regard to the Phillips Curve and Implications of the COVID-19 Crisis

  • JUNG, KYU-CHUL
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.81-101
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    • 2021
  • This paper estimates the expectation-augmented Phillips curve, which explains inflation dynamics, in Korea. The phenomenon of low inflation in Korea has been going on for quite some time, in particular since 2012. During the Covid-19 crisis, due to low inflation expectations the operation of monetary policy was limited as the base rate approached the zero lower bound. The main objective of this paper is to estimate where and how tightly inflation expectations are anchored. It was found that long-term inflation expectations fell to around 1%, falling short of the inflation target, and that inflation expectations are strongly anchored to long-term expectations, which implies that the low inflation phenomenon is likely to extend into the future. The results also imply that even if inflation fluctuates due to temporary disturbances, it may converge to a level below the inflation target. The slight rebound of long-term expectations during the Covid-19 crisis suggests that the aggressive monetary policy may have contributed to improving economic agents' beliefs about the commitment of monetary authorities to inflation stability. This may also help long-term expectations gradually to approach the inflation target.

Measuring the Monetary Value of Intellectual Capital - A Case Study of the ETRI - (지적자본의 화폐가치 측정 방법 연구: E연구원 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yong-Joo;Yi, Chan-Goo;Kim, Dong-Young
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.165-192
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    • 2005
  • This study introduces how to estimate the monetary value of intellectual capital of a public research institute by incorporating a non-market valuation technique, the choice experiments(CE). CE is a survey-based environmental valuation technique that has increasingly been popular over the last decade. The members of institute E, a typical type of public research institutes in Korea, were surveyed, before the data were fit to the conditional logit and mixed logit models. The total value of the institute's intellectual capital was estimated at approximately W3,377 billion for the year 2003. The institute's human, structural and relational capitals that comprise the intellectual capital were estimated at W18.7 billion, W10.7 billion and W4.4 billion respectively, for each of the components' index values improving by 1%. The human capital was placed a higher value than the other two. The study also shows that CE is a flexible technique that enables the researcher to estimate the monetary value of the intellectual capital whatever the index values of the component capitals and to interpret model estimation results more in depth by incorporating the mixed logit, a state-of-the-art discrete choice model, than the conventional conditional logic.

Monetary Policy Independence and Bond Yield in Developing Countries

  • ANWAR, Cep Jandi;SUHENDRA, Indra
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2020
  • This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy independence shock on bond yield by allowing for heterogeneous coefficients in the model based on panel data for 19 developing countries using quarterly data from 1991 to 2016. First, we estimate the model using conventional panel VAR estimation with the assumption of homogeneous coefficients across countries. Second, by performing Chow and Roy-Zellner tests to check the homogeneity assumption, we find that the assumption does not hold in the model. Third, we apply a mean-group estimation for panel VAR as a solution for heterogeneity panel model. The results reveal that central bank independence is effective in reducing bond yield with the maximum at period 6 after the shock. Shock one standard deviation bond yield has a negative effect on consumption and investment. We determine that central bank independence has a contradictory effect on real activity; a negative effect on consumption but a positive influence on investment for the first two years after the shock. Additionally, we split our sample into three groups to make the subgroups pool. Our empirical result shows that monetary policy independence shock reduces bond yield. Meanwhile, the response of economic activity to bond yield varies for all three groups.

Environmental Valuation of Huis Ten Bosch by Integrating Remote Sensing and CVM

  • Ahmed K. S. Sarwa Uddin;Gotoh Keinosuke
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.3-6
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    • 2004
  • This study aims to estimate, in monetary figures, the environmental value of recreational theme park- Huis Ten Bosch (HTB), located in Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan, through the integration of both contingent valuation method (CVM) and remote sensing. In the analysis, we have estimated the environmental value of HTB through CVM. Then, we have compared this amount with the valuation made by using remote sensing. The results of the study would provide the interest groups some monetary base, to value the worth of environmental restoration activities undertaken by HTB.

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An Economic Contribution of Housework (주부의 가사노동의 경제적 기여도)

  • 김정희
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 1999
  • The measurement of women's unpaid work is one of the important issues for the improvement of women's status and establishment of a women policy. The purpose of this study is to measure of household production of housewife and to estimate the ratio to GDP. And to emphasize the political meaning of housework The results are as follow; 1) The monetary value of housework of one housewife in 1995 was 783,050won by opportunity cost method . 2) The ratio of household production to GDP 1995 was approximately 16.5%.

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Quantification of the Value of Freeway VMS Traffic Information (고속도로 VMS 교통정보의 가치산정에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Tae-Ho;Lee, Ki-Young;Lee, Sang-Soo;Oh, Young-Tae
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2007
  • Traffic information provision plays an important role in increasing the efficiency of network operation and in providing convenience for roadway users. As a typical device for disseminating real-time traffic information for collective general public, VMS is a prevalent device nowadays and it is being expanded. However, the actual monetary value of traffic information is not quantified up to now. The previous studies regarding VMS traffic information are mainly focused on the behavioral aspects of road users such as departure time and route choices under traffic information provision conditions. This paper tried to estimate the monetary value of VMS traffic information using discrete choice theory and logit model through the stated preference study(SP). The methodological framework adopted in this paper can also be used in evaluating the monetary value of other traffic information providers including PDA, CNS, and mobile phone.

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Optimal Monetary Policy under Regime Switches - the case of US Housing Market - (상태 변환하의 최적 통화 정책 - 미국 주택 시장의 경우 -)

  • Kim, Jangryoul;Lim, Gieyoung
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we address the problem of optimal monetary policy rule in the presence of abrupt shifts in the structure of the economy. To do so, we first estimate a Markov switching model for the US housing price inflation, and find evidence supporting the presence of two distinct regimes for the US housing price inflation. One of the two regimes identified appears 'usual', in that housing price inflation negatively responds to higher real interest rate. The other regime is 'unusual', in that the housing price inflation is positively related with real interest rate. We then solve an optimal control problem of the FRB under the presence of the two regimes thus identified. The optimal policy is 'asymmetric' in that the optimal responses in the 'usual' regime require the FRB to lean against the wind to inflationary pressure, while the FRB is recommended to accommodate it in the unusual regime. It is also found that the optimal degree of responses is more conservative when the FRB acknowledges the uncertainty about future regime.

A Study on the North Korean Price : Focusing on currency reform (북한의 물가에 관한 연구: 화폐개혁을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Cheon Koo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.141-158
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to firstly estimate the inflation rate of North Korea using relative purchasing power parity. Most of the existing studies use North Korean rice prices as proxy to explain changes in North Korean prices. In this study, North Korea's price was estimated by applying purchasing power parity, which was used to estimate the price of socialist countries in the past, to North Korea. Second, it analyzes the impact of North Korea's price inflation after the institutional change of currency reform. We looked at the movements of North Korean prices after the institutional change of currency reform and compared it with the post-monetary reform of other socialist countries. We examine the impact of currency reform on North Korea, focusing on the price. As a result, after the currency reform in 2009, North Korea experienced hyperinflation. The North Korean inflation rate in the model was 3,010.0% in 2010, 195.0% in 2011, 68.0% in 2012 and 48.3% in 2013. After the currency reform of North Korea, the inflation rate is much higher than the socialist countries such as China and Vietnam who had experienced currency reform before. North Korea's monetary reforms are considered to have failed because of the side effects of hyperinflation.

The Research on Consumers' Actual Value for Environmental Performance of houses (주택의 환경 성능에 대한 소비자의 실질적 가치에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Min-Sun;Hagishima, Aya;Chun, Chung-Yoon
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.318-323
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    • 2008
  • First aim of this study is to investigate consumer's actual value for environment related performance of house by using three different method, Ranking, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Conjoint Analysis method. Second aim is to estimate consumers' monetary value about environment related factor through Marginal Willing to Pay(MWTP), and third aim is to find out the difference of values between the groups classified according to respondents' characteristics. A questionnaire survey was carried out in Seoul in order to clarify the preference and monetary value of four selected attributes. They are environmental performance, residents' health, home automation and increase of floor area. As a result, people showed high values in the order of health, environmental consideration, increase of floor area and home automation. Moreover, it was found out that MWTP for environmental performance and health are higher than market price. In addition, the group of high age and group of female showed high values for the reduction of $CO_2$ emission

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