• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.735-749
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• 2015

The major difficulty of using Bayesian probabilistic inference for system identification is to obtain the posterior probability density of parameters conditioned by the measured response. The posterior density of structural parameters indicates how plausible each model is when considering the uncertainty of prediction errors. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a widespread medium for posterior inference but its convergence is often slow. The differential evolution adaptive Metropolis-Hasting (DREAM) algorithm boasts a population-based mechanism, which nms multiple different Markov chains simultaneously, and a global optimum exploration ability. This paper proposes an improved differential evolution adaptive Metropolis-Hasting algorithm (IDREAM) strategy to estimate the posterior density of structural parameters. The main benefit of IDREAM is its efficient MCMC simulation through its use of the adaptive Metropolis (AM) method with a mutation strategy for ensuring quick convergence and robust solutions. Its effectiveness was demonstrated in simulations on identifying the structural parameters with limited output data and noise polluted measurements.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.183-196
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• 2012

The inference for incomplete data such as missing data, truncated distribution and censored data is a phenomenon that occurs frequently in statistics. To solve this problem, Expectation Maximization(EM), Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization(MCEM) and Stochastic Expectation Maximization(SEM) algorithm have been used for a long time; however, they generally assume known distributions. In this paper, we propose the Metropolis-Hastings Expectation Maximization(MHEM) algorithm for unknown distributions. The performance of our proposed algorithm has been investigated on simulated and real dataset, KOSPI 200.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.19 no.1 s.71
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• pp.27-37
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• 2006

A Metropolis genetic algorithm (MGA) is developed and applied for the structural design optimization. In MGA, favorable features of Metropolis criterion of simulated annealing (SA) are incorporated in the reproduction operations of simple genetic algorithm (SGA). This way, the MGA maintains the wide varieties of individuals and preserves the potential genetic information of early generations. Consequently, the proposed MGA alleviates the disadvantages of premature convergence to a local optimum in SGA and time consuming computation for the precise global optimum in SA. Performances and applicability of MGA are compared with those of conventional algorithms such as Holland's SGA, Krishnakumar's micro GA, and Kirkpatrick's SA. Typical numerical examples are used to evaluate the computational performances, the favorable features and applicability of MGA. The effects of population sizes and maximum generations are also evaluated for the performance reliability and robustness of MGA. From the theoretical evaluation and numerical experience, it is concluded that the proposed MGA Is a reliable and efficient tool for structural design optimization.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2008.04a
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• pp.416-421
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• 2008

A Metropolis genetic algorithm (MGA) is a newly-developed hybrid algorithm combining simple genetic algorithm (SGA) and simulated annealing (SA). In the algorithm, favorable features of Metropolis criterion of SA are incorporated in the reproduction operations of SGA. This way, MGA alleviates the disadvantages of finding imprecise solution in SGA and time-consuming computation in SA. It has been successfully applied and the efficiency has been verified for the practical structural design optimization. However, applicability of MGA for the wider range of problems should be rigorously proved through the solution of mathematical optimization problems. Thus, performances of MGA for the typical mathematical problems are investigated and compared with those of conventional algorithms such as SGA, micro genetic algorithm (${\mu}GA$), and SA. And, for better application of MGA, the effects of acceptance level are also presented. From numerical Study, it is again verified that MGA is more efficient and robust than SA, SGA and ${\mu}GA$ in the solution of mathematical optimization problems having various features.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.11-23
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• 2001

This paper is concerned with suggesting a Bayesian method for variable selection in multinomial logit model. It is based upon an optimal rule suggested by use of Bayes rule which minimizes a risk induced by selecting the multinomial logit model. The rule is to find a subset of variables that maximizes the marginal likelihood of the model. We also propose a Laplace-Metropolis algorithm intended to suggest a simple method forestimating the marginal likelihood of the model. Based upon two examples, artificial data and empirical data examples, the Bayesian method is illustrated and its efficiency is examined.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.329-340
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• 2011

The probability concepts mainly used for rainfall or flood frequency analysis in water resources planning are the frequentist viewpoint that defines the probability as the limit of relative frequency, and the unknown parameters in probability model are considered as fixed constant numbers. Thus the probability is objective and the parameters have fixed values so that it is very difficult to specify probabilistically the uncertianty of these parameters. This study constructs the uncertainty evaluation model using Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis -Hastings algorithm for the uncertainty quantification of parameters of probability distribution in rainfall frequency analysis, and then from the application of Bayesian MCMC and Metropolis- Hastings algorithm, the statistical properties and uncertainty intervals of parameters of probability distribution can be quantified in the estimation of probability rainfall so that the basis for the framework configuration can be provided that can specify the uncertainty and risk in flood risk assessment and decision-making process.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.115-122
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• 2003

A Metropolis genetic algorithm(MGA) is developed and applied for the structural design optimization. In MGA favorable features of Metropolis algorithm in simulated annealing(SA) are incorporated in simple genetic algorithm(SGA), so that the MGA alleviates the disadvantage of finding imprecise solution in SGA and time-consuming computation in SA. Performances of MGA are compared with those of conventional algorithms such as Holland's SGA, Krishnakumar's micro genetic algorithm(μGA), and Kirkpatrick's SA. Typical numerical examples are used to evaluate the favorable features and applicability of MGA From the theoretical evaluation and numerical experience, it is concluded that the proposed MGA is a reliable and efficient tool for structural design optimization.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.1385-1389
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• 2010

수자원 계획에 있어서 강우 또는 홍수빈도분석시 주로 사용되는 확률의 개념은 상대빈도에 대한 극한으로 확률을 정의하는 빈도학파적 확률관점에 속하며, 확률모델에서 미지의 매개변수들은 고정된 상수로 간주된다. 따라서 확률은 객관적이고 매개변수들은 고정된 값을 가지기 때문에 이러한 매개변수들에 대한 확률론적 설명은 매우 어렵다. 본 연구에서는 강우빈도해석에서 확률분포의 매개변수에 대한 불확실성을 정량화하기 위하여 베이지안 MCMC 및 Metropolis-Hastings 알고리즘을 이용한 불확실성 평가모델을 구축하였다. 그리고 베이지안 MCMC 및 Metropolis-Hastings 알고리즘의 적용을 통하여 확률강우량 산정시 확률분포의 매개변수에 대한 통계학적 특성 및 불확실성 구간을 정량화하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 홍수위험평가 및 의사결정과정에서 불확실성 및 위험도를 충분히 설명할 수 있는 프레임워크 구성을 위한 기초를 마련할 수 있었다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.139-151
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• 2002

This study is concerned with model selection and diagnostics for nonlinear regression model through Bayes factor. In this paper, we use informative prior and simulate observations from the posterior distribution via Markov chain Monte Carlo. We propose the Laplace approximation method and apply the Laplace-Metropolis estimator to solve the computational difficulty of Bayes factor.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.147-160
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• 2014

In this paper, we introduce the exponentiated Weibull-geometric (EWG) distribution which generalizes two-parameter exponentiated Weibull (EW) distribution introduced by Mudholkar et al. (1995). This proposed distribution is obtained by compounding the exponentiated Weibull with geometric distribution. We derive its cumulative distribution function (CDF), hazard function and the density of the order statistics and calculate expressions for its moments and the moments of the order statistics. The hazard function of the EWG distribution can be decreasing, increasing or bathtub-shaped among others. Also, we give expressions for the Renyi and Shannon entropies. The maximum likelihood estimation is obtained by using EM-algorithm (Dempster et al., 1977; McLachlan and Krishnan, 1997). We can obtain the Bayesian estimation by using Gibbs sampler with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Also, we give application with real data set to show the flexibility of the EWG distribution. Finally, summary and discussion are mentioned.