• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.149-162
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• 2013

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to design of a probabilistic model for optimum manpower planning in R&D department by Montecarlo simulation. Methods: We investigate the process and the requirement of manpower planning and scheduling in R&D department. The empirical distributions of necessary time and manpower for R&D projects are developed. From the empirical distributions, we can estimate a probability distribution of optimum manpower in R&D department. A simulation method of estimating the probability distribution of optimum manpower is considered. It is a useful tool for obtaining the sum, the variance and other statistics of the distributions. Results: The real industry cases are given and the properties of the model are investigated by Montecarlo Simulation. we apply the model to the research laboratory of the global company, and investigate and compensate the weak points of the model. Conclusion: The proposed model provides various and correct information such as average, variance, percentile, minimum, maximum and so on. A decision maker of a company can easily develop the future plan and the task of researchers may be allocated properly. we expect that the productivity can be improved by this study. The results of this study can be also applied to other areas including shipbuilding, construction, and consulting areas.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.560-566
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• 2008

Today, as the power trades between generation companies and power customer are liberalized, the uncertainty level of operated power system is rapidly increased. Therefore, transmission operators as decision makers for transmission expansion are required to establish a deliberate investment plan for effective operations of transmission facilities considering forecasted conditions of power system. This paper proposes the methodology for the optimal solution of transmission expansion in deregulated power system. The paper obtains the expected value of transmission congestion cost for various scenarios by using occurrence probability. In addition, the paper assumes that increasing rates of loads are the probability distribution and indicates the location of expanded transmission line, the time for transmission expansion with the minimum cost for the future by performing the Montecarlo simulation. To minimize the investment risk as the variance of the congestion cost, Mean-Variance Markowitz portfolio theory is applied to the optimization model by the penalty factor of the variance. By the case study, the optimal solution for transmission expansion plan considering the feature of market participants is obtained.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.123-133
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• 2010

There are many occasions on which the critical decisions should be made in software projects. Those decisions are basically related to estimating and predicting project parameters such as costs, efforts, and duration. The project managers are looking for methods to make better decisions. The decisions about project parameters are recommended to be performed based on historical data of Similar projects. The measures of the tasks in past projects may have different shapes of distributions. we need to add those measures to get a predicted project measures. To add measures with different shapes of distribution, we need to use Monte Carlo Simulation. In this paper, we suggest applying Monte Carlo Simulation for supporting decision makings in software project. We implemented best-fit case and scheduling estimations with Cristal Ball, a commercial product of Monte Carlo simulation and showed how the suggested approach supports those critical decision makings.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.421-433
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• 1998

In this paper, matching priors for P(X < Y) are investigated when both distributions are exponential distributions. Two recent approaches for finding noninformative priors are introduced. The first one is the verger and Bernardo's forward and backward reference priors that maximizes the expected Kullback-Liebler Divergence between posterior and prior density. The second one is the matching prior identified by matching the one sided posterior credible interval with the frequentist's desired confidence level. The general forms of the second- order matching prior are presented so that the one sided posterior credible intervals agree with the frequentist's desired confidence levels up to O(n$^{-1}$ ). The frequentist coverage probabilities of confidence sets based on several noninformative priors are compared for small sample sizes via the Monte-Carlo simulation.

• 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.101-118
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• 2009

In order to invest in overseas mineral projects, it is necessary to have a ability of technical and financial evaluation. Reserve estimation is the most important for mineral appraisal. Geostatistical evaluation of tonnage and grade promises more accurate reserve estimation than traditional methods such as polygon, inverse distance method and so on even if it has some uncertainty. Selection of a mining method and a mineral processing is also important because capex and opcosts of a mineral project is due to the selection. Mineral project is usually evaluated financially using NPV and IRR which are calculated through DCF(Discount Cash Flow). Uncertainty of a mineral project is analyzed statistically using sensitivity analysis and montecarlo simulation.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.500-505
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• 2015

Through Montecarlo simulation, this study compares how accurately the existing three phase deviation models estimate the time-varying variance of a planar oscillator perturbed by Gaussian noises. The comparison reveals that Kaertner model estimates the time-varying variance with about 1000 times higher accuracy than ISF or PP model exhibits. Additionally, it finds that the estimation accuracy of PP model is somewhat higher than that of ISF model.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.43-55
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• 2008

Contingent valuation method(hereafter CVM) is generally believed to be one of the most popular methods used for quantifying the value of non-market goods or services particularly by asking respondents of willingness to pay. This study deals with how to use CVM in calculating the value of mobile telephone service by suggesting methodology of estimation and eliminating biases. This study represents an attempt to estimate the WTP(Willingness To Pay) of the mobile telephone service using the face-to-face interview which is the qualitative technique is used. In this study, by using the single bound dichotomous choice model(SBDC) in order to analyze the valuation of mobile telephone service, WTP was estimated. Also we analyze the factors to pay for mobile service in which it becomes the important factor of demanding services. We used logit model. In order to provide robust estimates of WTP, we have used the Method of Montecarlo Simulation. Consequently, consumers showed that WTP about the mobile communications service is generally high. And it could know that the WTP will fell down as the specialized knowledge about the mobile communications frequency was high. It will be able to become the important part to not only the business carrier but also the policy maker to estimate the economic value of mobile telephone service.

• Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.119-125
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• 2005

The horizontal reflectometer, which uses a neutron beam in the reactor, provides scientists a set of unique tools offering destruction-free investigation of biological membranes in the native-like environments in nano-meter scale. As an intial stage for the development of the first Korean neutron reflectometer with a horizontal sample geometry, we performed the instrumental simulation using MCSTAS, Monte Carlo Simulations of Triple Axis Spectrometers for neutron ray-tracing simulation. The results indicated that modeling of the overall instrument geometry based on the thermal neutron source with a wavelength of 2.55 $2.5{\AA}$ at HANARO was successfully performed, and further the optimization of the individual components of the instrument, including the collimator, monochromators, filter and supermirror has been made.

• The Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.27-33
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• 1993

In order to improve complicated construction and complex control which are didvantage of optimal PWM technique aimed at harmonic elimination method, this paper presented MRA(Mode1 Reference Adaptive) PWM technique that gating signal of inverter is generated by comparing the reference signal with the induced feedback signal at the reference model of load. Design of controller is composed of microprocessor and analog circuit. MRA PWM technique used in the paper is able to compensate the degradation of voltage efficiency to be generated by the ratio of the output voltage to the DC supply voltage being low for using conventional sinusoidal PWM technique. When the trapezoidal signal is employed as the reference signal. the low order harmonics of line current can be reduced and the switching pattern is made by on-line computation using comparatively simple numerical analysis.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.9
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• pp.681-690
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• 2009

In this research, design precipitation was calculated by reflecting the climatic indices and its uncertainty assessment was evaluated. Climatic indices used the sea surface temperature and moisture index which observed globally. The correlation coefficients were calculated between the annual maximum precipitation and the climatic indices. and then climatic indices which have the larger correlation coefficient were selected. Therefore, the regression relationship was established by a locally weighted polynomial regression. Next, climatic indices were generated by montecarlo simulation using kernel function. Finally, the design rainfall was calculated by the locally weighted polynomial regression using generated climatic indices. At the result, the comparison of design rainfall between the reflection of the climatic indices and the frequency analysis did not indicate a significant difference. Also, this result can be used as basic data for calculation of probability precipitation to reflect climate change.