• Title/Summary/Keyword: Polynomial lag distributed model

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An Analysis of Distributed Lag Effects of Expenditure by Type of R&D on Scientific Production: Focusing on the National Research Development Program (연구개발단계별 연구개발투자와 논문 성과 간의 시차효과 분석: 국가연구개발사업을 중심으로)

  • Pak, Cheol-Min;Ku, Bon-Chul
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.687-710
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to empirically estimate distributed lag effects of expenditure by type of R&D on scientific publication in the national R&D program. To analyze the lag structure between them, we used a dataset comprised of panel data from 104 technologies categorized by 6T (IT, BT, NT, ST, ET, CT) from 2007 to 2014, and employed multiple regression analysis based on the polynomial distributed lag model. This is because it is highly likely to emerge multicollinearity, if a distributed lag model without special restrictions is applied to multiple regression analysis. The main results are as follows. In the case of basic research, its lag effects are relatively evenly distributed during four years. On the other hand, the applied research and experimental development have distributed lag effects for three years and two years respectively. Therefore, when it comes to analyzing performance of scientific publication, it is necessary to be performed with characteristics of the time lag by type of R&D.

An Analysis for the Adjustment Process of Market Variations by the Formulation of Time tag Structure (시차구조의 설정에 따른 시장변동의 조정과정 분석)

  • 김태호;이청림
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.87-100
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    • 2003
  • Most of statistical data are generated by a set of dynamic, stochastic, and simultaneous relations. An important question is how to specify statistical models so that they are consistent with the dynamic feature of those data. A general hypothesis is that the lagged effect of a change in an explanatory variable is not felt all at once at a single point in time, but The impact is distributed over a number of future points in time. In other words, current control variables are determined by a function that can be reduced to a distributed lag function of past observations. It is possible to explain the relationship between variables in different points of time and to estimate the long-run impacts of a change in a variable on another if time lag series of explanatory variables are incorporated in the model specification. In this study, distributed lag structure is applied to the domestic stock market model to capture the dynamic response of the market by exogenous shocks. The Domestic market is found more responsive to the changes in foreign market factors both in the short and the long run.

Estimation of the carryover effect of Japanese radiation-related news on domestic seafood consumption (일본 방사능 관련 보도가 국내 수산물 소비액에 미치는 이월효과 추정)

  • Jung, Ji-Sook;Lee, Hyo-jin;Kim, Seung Gyu
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.373-381
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    • 2022
  • The Fukushima nuclear power plant water spill caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 raised fears about radiation exposure through consumption of radioactively contaminated seafood. The Korean government banned importing agricultural and fishery products from eight prefectures near Fukushima, but the related news were continuously reported partly due to the WTO dispute with Japan, which seems to have aggravated consumers' anxiety about seafood. In this study, data on daily purchases of products for three years (2018-2020) were collected and the effect of Japanese radiation-related news on domestic consumers' purchases of seafood was estimated using a polynomial lag distributed model. As a result of the analysis, it was found that radiation-related news had a statistically significant negative effect on the purchase of seafood on the 5th and 6th days after exposure to consumers through the media. It captures the carryover effect in which consumers' perceptions are reflected in the purchase of seafood after exposure to related news.

An emprical analysis on the effect of OTT company's content investment (OTT 사업자 콘텐츠 투자가 미치는 영향에 대한 실증 분석)

  • Kwak, Jeongho;Na, Hoseoung
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2021
  • OTT service, which allows video content to be viewed as a streaming service on the Internet network, has recently attracted a lot of attention, and the number of users is also increasing rapidly. It would be a natural strategy for OTT companies to acquire more content to gain a competitive advantage in relations with traditional media companies and other OTT companies. However, there are research results to show that the investment in facilities by Internet service providers who must transport the increasing Internet traffic from OTT provider to end users should increase as the amount of Internet traffic originated by OTT services also increases. This study empirically analyzed how content investment by Netflix, a leading OTT company, affects its revenue growth and network investment by Internet service providers through a polynomial distributed lag model. And the analysis results show that Netflix's content investment contributes to the company's increase in revenue, and also has an effect on the increase in network investment by Internet service providers. This result confirms that OTT operators' content acquisition strategy is a valid management strategy, and empirically supports the study results that OTT operators need to share the cost of Internet network facility investment.