• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.49-70
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• 2010

Customer population management models can be classified into three categories: the first category includes the models that analyze the customer population at cohort level; the second one deals with the customer population at aggregate level; the third one has interest in the interactions among the customer populations in the competitive market. Our study proposes a model that can analyze the dynamics of customer population in consumer-durables market at aggregate level. The dynamics of customer population includes the retention curves from the purchase or at a specific duration time, the duration time expectancy at a specific duration time, and customer population growth or decline including net replacement rate, intrinsic rate of increase, and the generation time of customer population. For this study, we adopt mathematical ecology models, redefine them, and restructure interdisciplinary models to analyze the dynamics of customer population at aggregate level. We use the data of previous research on dynamic customer population management at cohort level to compare its results with those of ours and to demonstrate the useful analytical effects which the precious research cannot provide for marketers.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.37-59
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• 2014

This paper is to study dynamics of populations of religions. As human population is a crucial source of social dynamics, the religious population is a driving force that changes political and cultural landscape of society. Although many christian scholars have reported important causal factors in changing population of christian world, there are few studies on the dynamics of religious population in system dynamics. This paper interprets these dynamic mechanisms in terms of feedback loops and constructs a basic system dynamic model to forecast future trend of religious population in Korean society.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제16권1호통권94호
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• pp.116-124
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• 1999

In most conventional design optimization of dynamic system, design sensitivities are utilized. However, design sensitivities based optimization method has numbers of drawback. First, computing design sensitivities for dynamic system is mathematically difficult, and almost impossible for many complex problems as well. Second, local optimum is obtained. On the other hand, Genetic Algorithm is the search technique based on the performance of system, not on the design sensitivities. It is the search algorithm based on the mechanics of natural selection and natural genetics. GA search, differing from conventional search techniques, starts with an initial set of random solutions called a population. Each individual in the population is called a chromosome, representing a solution to the problem at hand. The chromosomes evolve through successive iterations, called generations. As the generation is repeated, the fitness values of chromosomes were maximized, and design parameters converge to the optimal. In this study, Genetic Algorithm is applied to the actual dynamic optimization problems, to determine the optimal design parameters of the dynamic system.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.329-340
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• 1999

We consider a Bayesian forcasting method for the analysis of repeated surveys. It is assumed that the parameters of the superpopulation model at each time follow a stochastic model. We propose Bayesian prediction procedures for the finite population total under multiprocess dynamic generalized linear models. The multiprocess dynamic model offers a powerful framework for the modelling and analysis of time series which are subject to a abrupt changes in pattern. Some numerical studies are provided to illustrate the behavior of the proposed predictors.

• 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.53-64
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• 2002

The purpose of this study was to predict the future urban activities effectively and rationally. For the purpose, a simulation model, based on SD, was built by integrating economic activities, land use and traffic of a city and by dividing Daegu Metropolitan City into seven districts and one county. To identify the effect of the development of a new city in the Dalsung County area, the future population and traffic volume of the city were predicted, using the model. The results are summarized as follows. The future population according to the development of a new city in the Dalsung County area was predicted, and the effects before and after the development twenty years later were compared. The future population of the Dalsung County was found to have slightly increased, whereas that of the adjoining Dalsuh Metropolitan District was found to has slightly decreased. For the other districts, there were no changes of the future population. It was found, therefore, that the development of a new city would have no effect on other districts. Then, the traffic volume according to the development of a new city in the Dalsung County area was also predicted. It was found that in the initial stage the traffic volume would increase with the increase in population of Dalsung County. It was predicted that particularly,. the traffic volume for the purpose of business would greatly increase. The traffic volume of Dalsuh Metropolitan District showed a slight decrease, whereas for the other districts, there were no changes of the traffic volume.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.75-91
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• 2015

The price-volume in land by land categories is evaluated with dynamic approaches in the era of aging society This research tries to investigate in the respect of major factors such as real estate, macro-economics, and population that is simulated by land categories. The system dynamics approaches on price-volume in land are forecasted until 2020 using the data in the period of 2000-2014. In regard to methodologies, this research adopted system dynamics to evaluate the relationships between price-volume in land and aging society. The meaningful results have been found during the last over 10 year's analysis as the dynamic relations with major factors. Regarding land categories, this research tries to overcome former research limitations. As an implication from the price-volume in land, it confirmed that the multifaceted aspects show that system dynamics approach effectively simulated them by price-volume in land with the population of aging society.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제47권6호
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• pp.521-529
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• 2021

Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused changes in human activity, and these changes may possibly increase or decrease exposure to fine dust (PM_2.5). Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the exposure to PM_2.5 in relation to the outbreak of COVID-19. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare and evaluate the exposure to PM_2.5 concentrations by the variation of dynamic populations before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. Methods: This study evaluated exposure to PM_2.5 concentrations by changes in the dynamic population distribution in Guro-gu, Seoul, before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 between Jan and Feb, 2020. Gurogu was divided into 2,204 scale standard grids of 100 m×100 m. Hourly PM_2.5 concentrations were modeled by the inverse distance weight method using 24 sensor-based air monitoring instruments. Hourly dynamic population distribution was evaluated according to gender and age using mobile phone network data and time-activity patterns. Results: Compared to before, the population exposure to PM_2.5 decreased after the outbreak of COVID-19. The concentration of PM_2.5 after the outbreak of COVID-19 decreased by about 41% on average. The variation of dynamic population before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 decreased by about 18% on average. Conclusions: Comparing before and after the outbreak of COVID-19, the population exposures to PM_2.5 decreased by about 40%. This can be explained to suggest that changes in people's activity patterns due to the outbreak of COVID-19 resulted in a decrease in exposure to PM_2.5.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.31-48
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• 2015

The purpose of this paper is to simulate drinking population, an alcoholic abuser and an alcoholic through therapy programs and system dynamic model. Then we try to research relationship between an alcoholic crime and related therapy programs. The results of the model simulation were consistently increased drinking population and 3 types drinkers until 2020 years. Specially the growth rate of drinking abusers will be passing that of a drinking population. Second, It showed clearly the decreasing effects of drinking crime on therapy programs(clinical treatment, preventive displine and counseling treatment). Finally, it will be positvely necessary the long-term and various alcoholic therapy program for reducing the ratio of drinking abusers and an alcoholic. In the second place, government and medical centers must be established a concrete information systems for collecting alcoholic datum.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제41권2호
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• pp.71-81
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• 2015

Objectives: Photochemical ozone pollution is associated with increased mortality risk. This study aims to assess the population exposure to ozone according to population characteristics for high ozone days in the Busan metropolitan region (BMR). Methods: The ozone exposure assessment in this study was performed using the WRF-CMAQ simulated ozone concentrations and the population data in the BMR. The settled and daytime population and their activity were considered to conduct the static and dynamic ozone exposure assessment. Results: Applying a static exposure assessment, in case that high ozone occurred throughout Busan area, the highest exposure levels were evaluated in urban neighborhoods. In case of ozone pollution in outer Busan, because sensitive groups have been relatively higher exposure, this case was also evaluated as part of that should not be overlooked. The dynamic exposure was higher than static exposure because the number of population exposed to ozone of high concentration is increased. This approach is important in a regard consider that daytime population distribution when high ozone occur. Conclusion: This study shows the different population exposure according to various ozone distributions for each episode day. Considering demographic characteristic such as population density and activity should be important to understanding the population exposure assessment when ozone pollution occurs.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.795-805
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• 1997

In this paper, we consider a Bayesian forecasting method for the analysis of repeated surveys. It is assumed that the parameters of the superpopulation model at each time follow a stochastic model. We propose Bayesian prediction procedures for the finite population total under dynamic generalized linear models. Some numerical studies are provided to illustrate the behavior of the proposed predictors.