• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.1690-1707
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• 2021

Precipitation prediction during flood season has been a key task of climate prediction for a long time. This type of prediction is linked with the national economy and people's livelihood, and is also one of the difficult problems in climatology. At present, there are some precipitation forecast models for the flood season, but there are also some deviations from these models, which makes it difficult to forecast accurately. In this paper, based on the measured precipitation data from the flood season from 1993 to 2019 and the precipitation return data of CWRF, ANN cycle modeling and a weighted integration method is used to correct the CWRF used in today's operational systems. The MAE and TCC of the precipitation forecast in the flood season are used to check the prediction performance of the proposed algorithm model. The results demonstrate a good correction effect for the proposed algorithm. In particular, the MAE error of the new algorithm is reduced by about 50%, while the time correlation TCC is improved by about 40%. Therefore, both the generalization of the correction results and the prediction performance are improved.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.353-365
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• 2022

This paper evaluates precipitation forecast skill of Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) over South Korea in a boreal winter from December 2013 to February 2014. Three types of precipitation are classified based on development mechanism: 1) convection type (C type), 2) low pressure type (L type), and 3) orographic type (O type), in which their frequencies are 44.4%, 25.0%, and 30.6%, respectively. It appears that the model significantly overestimates precipitation occurrence (0.1 mm d^-1) for all types of winter precipitation. Objective measured skill scores of GRIMs are comparably high for L type and O type. Except for precipitation occurrence, the model shows high predictability for L type precipitation with the most unbiased prediction. It is noted that Equitable Threat Score (ETS) is inappropriate for measuring rare events due to its high dependency on the sample size, as in the case of Critical Success Index as well. The Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score (SEDS) demonstrates less sensitivity on the number of samples. Thus, SEDS is used for the evaluation of prediction skill to supplement the limit of ETS. The evaluation via SEDS shows that the prediction skill score for L type is the highest in the range of 5.0, 10.0 mm d^-1 and the score for O type is the highest in the range of 1.0, 20.0 mm d^-1. C type has the lowest scores in overall range. The difference in precipitation forecast skill by precipitation type can be explained by the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation in each representative case.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.67-83
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• 2015

Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitation forecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model can predict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecast because it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both a higher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertainties of convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational Unified Model (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated for the ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developed showed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well as meteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontal resolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontal resolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecasts from the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the study period were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM) method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and the FSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system in KMA.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.273-289
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• 2018

This paper evaluates daily precipitation products from Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite (TRMM) Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method (CMORPH), validated against gauge observation over South Korea and gauge-based analysis data East Asia during one year from June 2014 to May 2015. It is found that the three products effectively capture the seasonal variation of mean precipitation with relatively good correlation from spring to fall. Among them, IMERG and TMPA show quite similar precipitation characteristics but overall underestimation is found from all precipitation products during winter compared with observation. IMERG shows reliably high performance in precipitation for all seasons, showing the most unbiased and accurate precipitation estimation. However, it is also noticed that IMERG reveals overestimated precipitation for heavier precipitation thresholds. This assessment work suggests the validity of the IMERG product for not only seasonal precipitation but also daily precipitation, which has the potential to be used as reference precipitation data.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.423-430
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• 2017

Recently, data analysis research has been carried out using the deep learning technique in various fields such as image interpretation and/or classification. Various types of algorithms are being developed for many applications. In this paper, we propose a precipitation prediction algorithm based on deep learning with high accuracy in order to take care of the possible severe damage caused by climate change. Since the geographical and seasonal characteristics of Korea are clearly distinct, the meteorological factors have repetitive patterns in a time series. Since the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) is a powerful algorithm for consecutive data, it was used to predict precipitation in this study. For the numerical test, we calculated the PWV (Precipitable Water Vapor) based on the tropospheric delay of the GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signals, and then applied the deep learning technique to the precipitation prediction. The GNSS data was processed by scientific software with the troposphere model of Saastamoinen and the Niell mapping function. The RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) of the precipitation prediction based on LSTM performs better than that of ANN (Artificial Neural Network). By adding GNSS-based PWV as a feature, the over-fitting that is a latent problem of deep learning was prevented considerably as discussed in this study.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.533-540
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• 2014

Statistical forecast models for the prediction of the summertime Changma precipitation have been developed in this study. As effective predictors for the Changma precipitation, the springtime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic (NA1), the North Pacific (NPC) and the tropical Pacific Ocean (CNINO) has been suggested in Lee and Seo (2013). To further improve the performance of the statistical prediction scheme, we select other potential predictors and construct 2 additional statistical models. The selected predictors are the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and the Bering Sea (BS) SST anomalies, and the spring Eurasian snow cover anomaly (EUSC). Then, using the total three statistical prediction models, a simple ensemble-mean prediction is performed. The resulting correlation skill score reaches as high as ~0.90 for the last 21 years, which is ~16% increase in the skill compared to the prediction model by Lee and Seo (2013). The EUSC and BS predictors are related to a strengthening of the Okhotsk high, leading to an enhancement of the Changma front. The NIO predictor induces the cyclonic anomalies to the southwest of the Korean peninsula and southeasterly flows toward the peninsula, giving rise to an increase in the Changma precipitation.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.20 no.7
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• pp.730-735
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• 2014

This paper introduces a GP (Genetic Programming) based robust technique for the prediction of a heavy rain newsflash. The nature of prediction for precipitation is very complex, irregular and highly fluctuating. Especially, the prediction of heavy precipitation is very difficult. Because not only it depends on various elements, such as location, season, time and geographical features, but also the case data is rare. In order to provide a robust model for precipitation prediction, a nonlinear and symbolic regression method using GP is suggested. The remaining part of the study is to evaluate the performance of prediction for a heavy rain newsflash using a GP based nonlinear regression technique in Korean regions. Analysis of the feature selection is executed and various fitness functions are proposed to improve performances. The KLAPS data of 2006-2010 is used for training and the data of 2011 is adopted for verification.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.457-475
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• 2023

Accurately predicting localized heavy rainfall is challenging without high-resolution mesoscale cloud information in the numerical model's initial field, as precipitation intensity and amount vary significantly across regions. In the Korean Peninsula, the radar observation network covers the entire country, providing high-resolution data on hydrometeors which is suitable for data assimilation (DA). During the pre-processing stage, radar reflectivity is classified into hydrometeors (e.g., rain, snow, graupel) using the background temperature field. The mixing ratio of each hydrometeor is converted and inputted into a numerical model. Moreover, assimilating saturated water vapor mixing ratio and decomposing radar radial velocity into a three-dimensional wind vector improves the atmospheric dynamic field. This study presents radar DA experiments using a numerical prediction model to enhance the wind, water vapor, and hydrometeor mixing ratio information. The impact of radar DA on precipitation prediction is analyzed separately for each radar component. Assimilating radial velocity improves the dynamic field, while assimilating hydrometeor mixing ratio reduces the spin-up period in cloud microphysical processes, simulating initial precipitation growth. Assimilating water vapor mixing ratio further captures a moist atmospheric environment, maintaining continuous growth of hydrometeors, resulting in concentrated heavy rainfall. Overall, the radar DA experiment showed a 32.78% improvement in precipitation forecast accuracy compared to experiments without DA across four cases. Further research in related fields is necessary to improve predictions of mesoscale heavy rainfall in South Korea, mitigating its impact on human life and property.

• Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice
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• v.10 no.spc
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• pp.135-142
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• 2022

Recently, with the development of data processing technology and the increase of computational power, methods to solving social problems using Artificial Intelligence (AI) are in the spotlight, and AI technologies are replacing and supplementing existing traditional methods in various fields. Meanwhile in Korea, heavy rain is one of the representative factors of natural disasters that cause enormous economic damage and casualties every year. Accurate prediction of heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula is very difficult due to its geographical features, located between the Eurasian continent and the Pacific Ocean at mid-latitude, and the influence of the summer monsoon. In order to deal with such problems, the Korea Meteorological Administration operates various state-of-the-art observation equipment and a newly developed global atmospheric model system. Nevertheless, for precipitation nowcasting, the use of a separate system based on the extrapolation method is required due to the intrinsic characteristics associated with the operation of numerical weather prediction models. The predictability of existing precipitation nowcasting is reliable in the early stage of forecasting but decreases sharply as forecast lead time increases. At this point, AI technologies to deal with spatio-temporal features of data are expected to greatly contribute to overcoming the limitations of existing precipitation nowcasting systems. Thus, in this project the dataset required to develop, train, and verify deep learning-based precipitation nowcasting models has been constructed in a regularized form. The dataset not only provides various variables obtained from multiple sources, but also coincides with each other in spatio-temporal specifications.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.44-53
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• 1999

The statistical characteristics of the factors related to the daily rainfall prediction model are analyzed . Records of daily precipitation, mean air temperature, relative humidity , dew-point temperature and air pressure from 1973∼1998 at 8 meteorological sttions in south-western part of Korea were used. 1. Serial correlatino of daily precipitaiton was significant with the lag less than 1 day. But , that of other variables were large enough until 10 day lag. 2. Crosscorrelation of air temperature, relative humidity , dew-point temperature showed similar distribution wiht the basin contrours and the others were different. 3. There were significant correlation between the meteorological variables and precipitation preceded more than 2 days. 4. Daily preciption of each station were treated as a truncated continuous random variable and the annual periodic components, mean and standard deviation were estimated for each day. 5. All of the results could be considered to select the input variables of regression model or neural network model for the prediction of daily precipitation and to construct the stochastic model of daily precipitation.