• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.211-221
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• 2020

One fundamental element of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the initiating event (IE) analysis. Since IE frequencies can change over time, time-trend analysis is required to obtain optimized IE frequencies. Accordingly, such time-trend analyses have been employed to estimate industry-average IE frequencies for use in the PSAs of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs); existing PSAs of Korean NPPs, however, neglect such analysis in the estimation of IE frequencies. This article therefore provides the method for and results of estimating Korean industry-average IE frequencies using time-trend analysis. It also examines the effects of the IE frequencies obtained from this study on risk insights by applying them to recently updated internal events Level 1 PSA models (at-power and shutdown) for an OPR-1000 plant. As a result, at-power core damage frequency decreased while shutdown core damage frequency increased, with the related contributions from each IE category changing accordingly. These results imply that the incorporation of time-trend analysis leads to different IE frequencies and resulting risk insights. The IE frequency distributions presented in this study can be used in future PSA updates for Korean NPPs, and should be further updated themselves by adding more recent data.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.91-99
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• 2019

Fragility analysis is an effective tool that is frequently used for seismic risk assessment of bridges. There are three different approaches to derive a fragility curve: experimental, empirical and analytical. Both experimental and empirical methods to derive fragility curve are based on past earthquake reports and expert opinions which are not suitable for all bridges. Therefore, analytical fragility analysis becomes important. Nonlinear time history analysis is commonly used which is the most reliable method for determining probabilistic demand models. In this study, to determine the probabilistic demand models of bridges, time history analyses were performed considering both material and geometrical nonlinearities. Serviceability limit states for three different service velocities were considered as a performance goal. Also, support displacements, component yielding and collapse limits were taken into account. Both serviceability and component fragility were derived by using maximum likely hood methods. Finally, the seismic performance and critical members of the bridge were probabilistically determined and clearly presented.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2003.10b
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• pp.265-270
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• 2003

Though the probability of tunnel fire accident is very low, but critical fatalities are expected when it occurred. In this study the effect of critical safety parameters on tunnel fire accident are examined using probabilistic technique. Fire detection time, smoke spread velocity, passenger escape velocity, flash-over time, and emergency service arrival time are considered. In order to estimate the uncertainties of input parameters Monte Carlo simulation are used, and fatalities for each assumed accident scenarios are obtained as results. For the efficiency of iterative calculation PRA(Probabilistic Risk Analysis) code is developed in this study. As a result fire detection have large effect.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.599-599
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• 2015

This research attempts to resolve the construction delay issues of indirect delays by developing the "Delay Responsibility Determination Model" (DRM) based on probabilistic risk analysis. DRM is envisioned to provide a way of quantitatively analyzing impacts of delayed activities while considering both direct and indirect influences. With the successful development of DRM, it would be possible to present relative probabilistic measures to all the related stakeholders in terms of their contributions to schedule delays. Upon the development completion of DRM, "Korean Construction Delay Claim/Dispute Resolution Protocols" will also be prepared to facilitate the effective use of DRM.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.53-58
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• 2021

Nuclear power plant's safety against seismic events is evaluated as risk values by probabilistic seismic safety assessment. The risk values vary by the seismic failure correlation between the structures, systems, and components (SSCs). However, most probabilistic seismic safety assessments idealized the seismic failure correlation between the SSCs as entirely dependent or independent. Such a consideration results in an inaccurate assessment result not reflecting real physical phenomenon. A nuclear power plant's seismic risk should be calculated with the appropriate seismic failure correlation coefficient between the SSCs for a reasonable outcome. An accident scenario that has an enormous impact on a nuclear power plant's seismic risk was selected. Moreover, the probabilistic seismic response analyses of a nuclear power plant were performed to derive appropriate seismic failure correlations between SSCs. Based on the analysis results, the seismic failure correlation coefficient between SSCs was derived, and the seismic fragility curve and core damage frequency of the loss of essential power event were calculated. Results were compared with the seismic fragility and core damage frequency of assuming the seismic failure correlations between SSCs were independent and entirely dependent.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.306-312
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• 2017

The purpose of this research is to introduce the technical standard of accident sequence precursor (ASP) analysis, and to propose a case study using the dynamic-probabilistic safety assessment (D-PSA) approach. The D-PSA approach can aid in the determination of high-risk/low-frequency accident scenarios from all potential scenarios. It can also be used to investigate the dynamic interaction between the physical state and the actions of the operator in an accident situation for risk quantification. This approach lends significant potential for safety analysis. Furthermore, the D-PSA approach provides a more realistic risk assessment by minimizing assumptions used in the conventional PSA model so-called the static-PSA model, which are relatively static in comparison. We performed risk quantification of a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident using the dynamic event tree (DET) methodology, which is the most widely used methodology in D-PSA. The risk quantification results of D-PSA and S-PSA are compared and evaluated. Suggestions and recommendations for using D-PSA are described in order to provide a technical perspective.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.9 no.11
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• pp.125-133
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• 2019

In this paper, probabilistic flood risk maps were produced for levee break caused by possible flood scenarios. The results of the previous studies were employed for flood stages corresponding to hydrological extreme event quantified uncertainties and then predicted the location of a levee breach. The breach width was estimated by combining empirical equation considered constant width and numerical modeling considered uncertainties on compound geotechnical component. Accordingly, probabilistic breach outflow was computed and probabilistic inundation map was produced by 100 runs of 2D inundation simulation based on reliability analysis. The final probabilistic flood risk map was produced by combining probabilistic inundation map based on flood hazard mapping methodology. The outcomes of the study would be effective in establishing specified emergency actin plan (EAP) and expect to suggest more economical and stable design index.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.41 no.8
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• pp.619-624
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• 2013

To predict the probabilistic service life, statistical factors should be included to consider the uncertainty of parameters. Generally the probabilistic analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. In order to apply probabilistic analysis on the deterministic life analysis, it would be necessary to introduce Probability of Failure(PoF) and conduct risk assessment. In this work, we have studied probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft structures by using PoF approach. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian method was utilized to model PoF estimation since this method is known as the proper method to express the uncertainty of parameters. A series of proof tests were also conducted in order to verify the result of PoF estimation. The results from this efforts showed that the PoF estimation model can calculate quantitatively the value of PoF. Furthermore effectiveness of risk assessment approach for the aircraft structures was also demonstrated.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.57-68
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• 2009

Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.47-54
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• 2017

Introduction of robustness index in the structure is done in three ways: deterministic robustness index, probabilistic robustness index, and risk-based robustness index. In past decades, there have been numerous researches to evaluate robustness index in both deterministic and probabilistic ways. In this research, by using a risk analysis, a risk-based robustness index has been defined for the structure. By creating scenarios in accordance with uncertainty parameters of critical and unexpected gas blast accident, a new method has been suggested for evaluating risk-based robustness index. Finally, a numerical example for the evaluation of risk-based robustness index of a four-storey reinforced concrete moment frame, designed and built based on Eurocode 8 code, has been presented with results showing a lower risk of robustness.