• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.461-471
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• 2015

Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.69 no.3
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• pp.317-326
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• 2019

This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.360-372
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• 2017

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.699-706
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• 2014

The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.185-194
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• 2019

The probabilistic tsunami risk assessment of large coastal areas is challenging because the inland propagation of a tsunami wave requires an accurate numerical model that takes into account the interaction between the ground, the infrastructures, and the wave itself. Classic mesh-based methods face many challenges in the propagation of a tsunami wave inland due to their ever-moving boundary conditions. In alternative, mesh-less based methods can be used, but they require too much computational power in the far-field. This study proposes a hybrid approach. A mesh-based method propagates the tsunami wave from the far-field to the near-field, where the influence of the sea floor is negligible, and a mesh-less based method, smooth particle hydrodynamic, propagates the wave onto the coast and inland, and takes into account the wave structure interaction. Nowadays, this can be done because the advent of general purpose GPUs made mesh-less methods computationally affordable. The method is used to simulate the inland propagation of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami off the coast of Indonesia.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.349-364
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• 2008

Over the years, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) research activities conducted at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have played an essential role in support of the agency's move towards risk-informed regulation. These research activities have provided the technical basis for NRC's regulatory activities in key areas; provided PRA methods, tools, and data enabling the agency to meet future challenges; supported the implementation of NRC's 1995 PRA Policy Statement by assessing key sources of risk; and supported the development of necessary technical and human resources supporting NRC's risk-informed activities. PRA research aimed at improving the NRC's understanding of risk can positively affect the agency's regulatory activities, as evidenced by three case studies involving research on fire PRA, human reliability analysis (HRA), and pressurized thermal shock (PTS) PRA. These case studies also show that such research can take a considerable amount of time, and that the incorporation of research results into regulatory practice can take even longer. The need for sustained effort and appropriate lead time is an important consideration in the development of a PRA research program aimed at helping the agency address key sources of risk for current and potential future facilities.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.02b
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• pp.13-24
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• 2009

This paper introduces various kinds of applications of the scenario-based seismic risk assessment in Taiwan. Seismic scenario simulation (SSS) is a GIS-based technique to assess distribution of ground shaking intensity, soil liquefaction probability, building damages and associated casualties, interruption of lifeline systems, economic losses, etc. given source parameters of an earthquake. The SSS may integrate with rapid earthquake information release system to obtain valuable information and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources efficiently. The SSS may also integrate with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss and probable maximum loss in one event, in a probabilistic sense and to help proposing feasible countermeasures.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.69-77
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• 2020

After the Fukushima Daiichi accidents, public concerns on nuclear safety and the corresponding burden of nuclear power plant licensees are increasing. In order to secure public trust and enhance the rationality of current safety regulation, we develop a risk-informed decision making (RIDM) framework for the Korean regulatory body. By analyzing all the regulatory activities for nuclear power plants in Korea, eight action items are selected for RIDM implementation, with appropriate procedures developed for each. For two items in particular - the accident sequence precursor analysis (ASPA) and the significance determination process (SDP) - two customized risk evaluation software has been developed for field inspectors and probabilistic safety assessment experts, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed RIDM framework is demonstrated by applying the ASPA procedure to 35 unplanned scrams and the SDP to 24 findings from periodic inspections.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.98-103
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• 2003

Based on ASME probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and NEI PRA peer review guidance, we evaluate a human reliability analysis (HRA) in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for Korea standard nuclear power plants, Ulchin Unit 3&4, to improve it performed at under design. The HRA for Ulchin Unit 3&4 is assessed as higher than Grade I based on ASME PRA standard and as higher than Grade 2 based on NEI PRA peer review guidance. The major items to be improved identified through the evaluation process are the documentation, the systematic human reliability analysis, the participitation of operators in the works and review of HRA. We suggest the guidance on the identification and qualitative screening analysis for pre-accident human errors and solve some items to be improved using the suggested guidance.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.32-40
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• 2005

Recent earthquakes over magnitude 5 in the eastern coast of Korea have aroused interests in the earthquake analyses and seismic design of breakwater structures. Most of earthquake analysis methods such as equivalent static analysis, response spectrum analysis, nonlinear analysis, and capacity analysis methods are deterministic and have been used for seismic design and performance evaluation of breakwater structures. However, deterministic methods are difficult to reflect one of the most important characteristics of earthquakes, i.e. the uncertainty of earthquakes. This paper presents results of probabilistic seismic risk assessment(PSRA) of an actual caisson type breakwater structure considering uncertainties of earthquake occurrences and soil properties. First the seismic vulnerability of a structure and the seismic hazard of the site are evaluated using earthquake sets and seismic hazard map, and then seismic risk of the structure is assessed.