• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.266-271
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• 2022

Background: The selection of distributions of input parameters is an important component in probabilistic exposure assessment. Goodness-of-fit (GOF) methods are used to determine the distribution of exposure factors. However, there are no clear guidelines for choosing an appropriate GOF method. Objectives: The outcomes of probabilistic consumer exposure assessment were compared by using five different GOF methods for the selection of input distributions: chi-squared test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson-Darling test (A-D), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Methods: Individual exposures were estimated based on product usage factor combinations from 10,000 respondents. The distribution of individual exposure was considered as the true value of population exposures. Results: Among the five GOF methods, probabilistic exposure distributions using the A-D and K-S methods were similar to individual exposure estimations. Comparing the 95th percentiles of the probabilistic distributions and the individual estimations for 10 CPs, there were 0.73 to 1.92 times differences for the A-D method, and 0.73 to 1.60 times differences (excluding tire-shine spray) for the K-S method. Conclusions: There were significant differences in exposure assessment results among the selection of the GOF methods. Therefore, the GOF methods for probabilistic consumer exposure assessment should be carefully selected.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제43권3호
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• pp.223-232
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• 2017

Objectives: In response to increased interest in the safety of children's products, a risk management system is being prepared through exposure assessment of hazardous chemicals. To estimate exposure levels, risk assessors are using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to statistical methodology and a commercialized Monte Carlo simulation based on tools (MCTool) to efficiently support calculation of the probability density functions. This study was conducted to analyze and discuss the usage patterns and problems associated with the results of these two approaches and MCTools used in the case of probabilistic approaches by reviewing research reports related to exposure assessment for children's products. Methods: We collected six research reports on exposure and risk assessment of children's products and summarized the deterministic results and corresponding underlying distributions for exposure dose and concentration results estimated through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. We focused on mechanisms and differences in the MCTools used for decision making with probabilistic distributions to validate the simulation adequacy in detail. Results: The estimation results of exposure dose and concentration from the deterministic approaches were 0.19-3.98 times higher than the results from the probabilistic approach. For the probabilistic approach, the use of lognormal, Student's T, and Weibull distributions had the highest frequency as underlying distributions of the input parameters. However, we could not examine the reasons for the selection of each distribution because of the absence of test-statistics. In addition, there were some cases estimating the discrete probability distribution model as the underlying distribution for continuous variables, such as weight. To find the cause of abnormal simulations, we applied two MCTools used for all reports and described the improper usage routes of MCTools. Conclusions: For transparent and realistic exposure assessment, it is necessary to 1) establish standardized guidelines for the proper use of the two statistical approaches, including notes by MCTool and 2) consider the development of a new software tool with proper configurations and features specialized for risk assessment. Such guidelines and software will make exposure assessment more user-friendly, consistent, and rapid in the future.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.203-214
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• 2000

Health risk assessment is applied to streamlining LCA(Life Cycle Assessment) using Monte carlo simulation for probabilistic/stochastic exposure and risk distribution analysis caused by data variability and uncertainty. A case study was carried out to find benefits of this application. BTC(Benzene, Trichloroethylene, Carbon tetrachloride mixture alias) personal exposure cases were assumed as production worker(in workplace), manager(in office) and business man(outdoor). These cases were different from occupational retention time and exposure concentration for BTC consumption pattern. The result of cancer risk in these 3 scenario cases were estimated as $1.72E-4{\pm}1.2E+0$(production worker; case A), $9.62E-5{\pm}1.44E-5$(manger; case B), $6.90E-5{\pm}1.16E+0$(business man; case C), respectively. Portions of over acceptable risk 1.00E-4(assumed standard) were 99.85%, 38.89% and 0.61%, respectively. Estimated BTC risk was log-normal pattern, but some of distributions did not have any formal patterns. Except first impact factor(BTC emission quantity), sensitivity analysis showed that main effective factor was retention time in their occupational exposure sites. This case study is a good example to cover that LCA with probabilistic risk analysis tool can supply various significant information such as statistical distribution including personal/environmental exposure level, daily time activity pattern and individual susceptibility. Further research is needed for investigating real data of these input variables and personal exposure concentration and application of this study methodology.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제18권spc호
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• pp.63-74
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• 2020

The operational safety assessment is an important part of a safety case for the deep geological repository of spent fuels. It consists of different stages such as the identification of initiating events, event tree analysis, fault tree analysis, and evaluation of exposure doses to the public and radiation workers. This study develops a probabilistic safety assessment method for the operational safety assessment and establishes an assessment framework. For the event and fault tree analyses, we propose the advanced information management system for probabilistic safety assessment (AIMS-PSA Manager). In addition, we propose the Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) program to evaluate exposure doses to the public and radiation workers. Furthermore, we check the applicability of the assessment framework with respect to drop accidents of a spent fuel assembly arising out of crane failure, at the surface facility of the KRS⁺ (KAERI Reference disposal System for SNFs). The methods and tools established through this study can be used for the development of a safety case for the KRS⁺ system as well as for the design modification and the operational safety assessment of the KRS⁺ system.

• 농약과학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.110-115
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 우리나라 소비자를 대상으로 우리나라에서 재배된 과채류 섭취를 통한 neonicotinoid계 농약의 노출량을 확률적 접근법을 이용하여 평가하였다. 농약 잔류량을 2009년에 수행된 과채류 중 neonicotinoid계 농약 5종(acetamiprid, clothianidin, imidacloprid, thiacloprid, thiamethoxam)에 대한 모니터링 자료를 이용하였다. Neonicotinoid계 농약의 총 노출량을 개별 과채류별로 구분하여 확률적 평가를 실시한 결과 neonicotinoid계 농약 5종의 총 노출량의 극단값은 0.087~0.236 ${\mu}g$/kg/day의 범위를 보였다. 확정론적 접근법의 결과와 비교했을 때 총 노출량의 평균치는 거의 유사하게 나타났으며, 노출량의 $95^{th}$ percentile값에 서는 확률적 접근법의 결과가 확정론적 접근법의 결과에 비해 38.8 ~ 62.0%의 수준으로 낮게 나타났다. 총 노출량에 대한 민감도 분석을 실시한 결과, acetamiprid의 총 노출량은 딸기 섭취를 통한 노출량에 크게 영향을 받으며, 특히 딸기의 섭취량 보다는 딸기 중 acetamiprid 잔류량 수준에 더 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 thiacloprid를 제외한 나머지 3종의 neonicotinoid계 농약에서 유사한 경향을 보였다.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.263-272
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• 2012

파이로처리 방사성 폐기물 처분 시스템에 대하여 골드심을 이용하여 개발된 확률론적 평가 프로그램을 이용하여 폐쇄후 방사선적 안전성 평가를 수행하였다. 처분장으로부터 핵종이 유출되어 다양한 처분 시스템 내 매질을 이동하는 것에 관련된 정상 시나리오에 대한 평가를 위하여, 평가 결과에 대한 민감도나 일반적으로 불확실성의 범위가 큰 입력자료 중 주요하다고 판단되는 파라미터를 9개로 선정하여 평가에 고려된 핵종 중 Tc, Sn, Pa, Cs 4개의 원소에 대하여 평가 결과를 논의해 보았다. 확률론적 안전성 평가와 함께 이들 각 입력 자료에 대한 최종 방사선 피폭선량에 대한 민감도도 분석하여 결과에 대한 각 입력 파라미터의 중요도도 비교하였다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.497-507
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• 2011

This research studied human health risk assessment of benzene from industrial complexes of Chungcheong Province (Seosan industrial complex) and Jeonla Province (Iksan industrial complex and Yeosoo industrial complex). The residents near the industrial complexes areas can be often exposed to volatile organic compounds (e.g., benzene, toluene, xylenes) through a number of exposure pathways, including inhalation of the organic pollutant via various environmental matrices (air, water and soil), contaminated water, and soil intake. Benzene is well known to be a common carcinogenic and toxic compound that is produced from industrial and oil refinery complexes. In this study, a number of samples from water, air, and soil were taken from the residential settings and public school zones located near the industrial complex sites. Based on the carcinogenic risk assessment, the risk estimates were slightly above $10{\times}10^{-6}$ at all three industrial sites. According to deterministic risk assessment, inhalation was the most important route. The distribution of benzene in the environment would be dependent on vapor pressure, and the physical property influencing the extent of the potential risks. Non-carcinogenic risk assessment of benzene shows that the values of Hazard Index(HI) were much lower than 1.0 at all industrial complexes. Therefore, benzene was not a cause of concern in terms of non-carcinogenic risk posed to the residents near the sites. When compared to probabilistic risk assessment, the CTE(central tendency exposure) cancer risk values of deterministic risk assessment were close to the mean values predicted by the probabilistic risk assessment. The RME(reasonable maximum exposure) values fell within the range of 95% to 99.9% estimated by the probabilistic risk assessment. Since the values of carcinogenic risk assessment were higher than $10{\times}10^{-6}$, further detailed monitoring and refined risk assessment for benzene may be warranted to estimate more reliable and potential inhalation risks to receptors near the industrial complexes.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.494-501
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• 2009

Probabilistic Ecological risk assessment (PERA) is extensive approach to qualify and quantify risk on the multi species based on species sensitivity distribution (SSD). As a while, deterministic ecological risk assessment (DERA) considers the comparison of predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) and predicted exposure concentration (PEC). DERA is used to determine if there is potential risk or no risk, and it doesn't consider the nature variability and the species sensitivity. But PERA can be more realistic and reasonable approach to estimate likelihood or risk. In this study, we compared PERA used in developed countries, and proposed PERA applicable for the Korean water environment. Taxonomic groups were classified as "class" level including Actinopterygill, Branchiopoda, Chlorophyceae, Maxillapoda, Insects, Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Secernentea, Polychaeta, Monocotyldoneae, and Chanophyceae in this study. Statistical extrapolation method (SEM), statistical extrapolation method $_{acutechronicratio}$ ($SEM_{ACR}$) and assessment factor method (AFM) were used to calculate the ecological protective concentration based on qualitative and quantitative levels of taxonomic toxicity data. This study would be useful to establish the PERA for the protection of aquatic ecosystem in Korea.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제40권5호
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• pp.397-406
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• 2014

Objectives: Perchloroethylene (PCE) is a volatile chemical widely used as a solvent in the dry-cleaning and textile processing industries. It was evaluated as Group 2 "probably carcinogenic to humans" by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) of the United State Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) in 2012. In order to provide a scientific basis for establishing risk management measures for chemicals on the national priority substances list, aggregate risk assessment was conducted for PCE, included in the top-10 substances. Methods: We conducted the investigation and monitoring of PCE exposure (e.g., exposure scenario, detection levels, and exposure factors, etc.) and assessed its multi-media (e.g., outdoor air, indoor air, and ground water) exposure risk with a deterministic and probabilistic approach. Results: In human risk assessment (HRA), the level of human exposure was higher in the younger age group. The exposure level through inhalation at home was the highest among the exposure routes. Outdoor air or uptake of drinking water represented less than 1% of total contributions to PCE exposure. These findings suggested that the level of risk was negligible since the Hazard Index (HI) induced by HRA was below one among all age groups, with a maximum HI value of 0.17 when reasonable maximum exposure was applied. Conclusion: In conclusion, it was suggested that despite low exposure risk, further studies are needed considering main sources, including occupational exposure.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.7-14
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• 2010

Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) supports a decision-making process such as establishment of environmental quality criteria. Soil quality criteria (SQC) are essential to protect soil organisms from the exposure to various soil contaminants. In this study, ERA methodologies of advanced countries for soil pollution were extensively compared to propose the ERA approach suitable for soil ecosystem in Korea. The soil ERAs in European Chemical Bureau(ECB), The Netherlands, and Canada can be classified as deterministic ecological risk assessment (DERA), and probabilistic ecological risk assessment (PERA) based on species sensitivity distribution (SSD). We propose three ERA methods according to abundance and reliability of soil ecotoxicity data. The method considered land use such as residential/agricultural, and industrial/commercial uses. The taxonomic groups of soil organism were classified as 'Class' level including different trophic levels (Magnoliopsida or Liliopsida, Clitellata, and Insecta or Secernentea). This study can be used to estimate the soil quality criteria to protect soil biota.