• Title/Summary/Keyword: SIND Model

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Prediction of Urban Inundation using SIND Model : Application of Nakdong River Basin (SIND Model을 적용한 도시침수 예측 : 낙동강 유역 적용)

  • Kim, Dong Hyun;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.293-293
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    • 2019
  • 최근 도심지 침수예방을 위해 구조적 비구조적인 대책 등이 수행되어 왔으나, 도심지의 국지성 호우의 발생빈도가 증가함에 따라 단시간의 도심지 침수예측의 중요성이 다시 대두되고 있다. 이에 도심지 침수 예측을 위해서는 수치모의 프로그램을 사용한 연구가 진행되어 왔으나, 국지성 호우에 의한 침수를 막을 만킁의 실시간 위험예측은 아직까지 힘든 실정이다. 한편 해양재난의 침수를 예방하기 위해서 국립재난안전연구원(2017)에서는 과학적 보간법을 적용한 침수예측 모형인 SIND(Scientific Interpolation for Natural Disaster) Model을 개발한 바 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 SIND Model을 도심지 침수예측에 적용하여 집중호우와 같은 단기간의 침수를 예방하고자 한다. SIND Model은 기 구축된 침수예상도를 활용하여 모든 시나리오에 대한 침수 위험도 등급을 실시간으로 평가하는 모형이다. 국토부에서 제공하는 국가홍수위험지도와 내수침수지도를 활용하였고, SIND Model은 Comsol Multyphisic를 활용하여 침수예측지도를 생성하였다. 기존에 해양재난 예측을 위해 사용하였던 Risk Grade 방정식에 시간 항(time term)과 도심지의 최초 침수 발생위치에 생성 항(source term)을 추가하여 도심지 침수특성을 반영하였다. 결과를 평가하기 위하여 CRITIC(CRiteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) 방법을 활용한 형상유사도를 산출하였다. 그 결과, 기 구축된 홍수위험지도와 형상유사도는 전체 구역 중 80%의 구역이 0.8 이상의 값을 나타내었다. 20%의 구역에서는 복잡한 도심지의 건물, 구조물 등의 침수특성을 반영하지 못하여 형상유사도가 낮게 평가된 것으로 판단되며, 향후 위험도 예측을 위해 배수시스템 등의 영향인자를 고려한다면 위험도 등급 예측의 정확도를 높일 수 있을 것이라 기대된다.

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Shape Similarity Analysis for Verification of Hazard Map for Storm Surge : Shape Criterion (폭풍해일 침수예상도 검증을 위한 형상유사도 분석 : 형상기준)

  • Kim, Young In;Kim, Dong Hyun;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2019
  • The concept of shape similarity has been applied to verify the accuracy of the SIND model, the real-time prediction model for disaster risk. However, the CRITIC method, one of the most widely used in geometric methodology, is definitely limited to apply to complex shape such as hazard map for coastal disaster. Therefore, we suggested the modified CRITIC method of which we added the shape factors such as RCCI and TF to consider complicated shapes. The matching pairs were manually divided into exact-matching pairs and mis-matching pairs to evaluate the applicability of the new method for shape similarity into hazard maps for storm surges. And the shape similarity of each matching pair was calculated by changing the weights of each shape factor and criteria. Newly proposed methodology and the calculated weights were applied to the objects of the existent hazard map and the results from SIND model. About 90% of exact-matching pairs had the shape similarity of 0.5 or higher, and about 70% of mis-matching pairs were it below 0.5. As future works, if we would calibrate narrowly and adjust carefully multi-objects corresponding to one object, it would be expected that the shape similarity of the exact-matching pairs will increase overall while it of the mis-matching pairs will decrease.

Accuracy review of inundation prediction using CRITIC method (CRITIC 기법을 활용한 침수예측 정확도 검토)

  • Kim, Young In;Kim, Dong Hyun;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.120-120
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    • 2019
  • 국내에서는 예측 불가능한 재난으로 인한 침수 피해 발생사례가 증가하였다. 따라서 침수 피해 예측이 더욱 중요해지고 있는 실정이다. 기존에는 주로 수치모형을 통한 침수예측을 하였고, 정보통신기술도 발달해왔지만 아직까지 수치모의에 많은 시간이 소요되기 때문에 침수 피해의 실시간 예측이 힘든 상황이다. 이에 국립재난안전연구원(2017)에서 침수예측을 위한 보간 모델인 SIND(Scientific Interpolation for Natural Disaster) Model을 개발하였다. 이는 보간을 이용한 모델이기 때문에 그동안 사용해왔던 물리 모형보다 간단하다. 그러나 정확한 값이 아닌 보간을 이용한 모델이기 때문에 정확도를 검토할 필요가 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 Mapping분야에서 사용하는 CRITIC(CRiteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) 기법을 활용하여 지도의 정확도 검토를 수행하였다. CRITIC은 형상기준, 위치기준, 면적기준을 이용하여 형상유사도를 산정하는 방법이며, 이 기법을 활용하여 국가가 제공한 침수예상도(국립해양조사원, 2010)와 SIND모델 결과 지도를 비교하였다. 형상기준은 지도의 형상을 나타내는 형상지수를 비교하고, 위치기준은 지도의 무게중심의 일치정도, 면적기준은 형상 면적을 비교하는 것이다. 지도는 총 300여개의 매칭 객체 쌍을 가지고 수행하였고, 위험도 등급은 Grade 1부터 Grade 5 까지 분류하여 나타내었다. 연구 대상지역은 ${{\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}}$시이다. 그 결과, 형상유사도는 약 200여개의 매체쌍이 0.80 이상의 값을 나타냈고, 나머지 매체 쌍은 0.75이하의 값을 나타내었다. 위험도 등급이 낮을수록 형상유사도 값은 크게 나타나고, 위험도 등급이 높을수록 형상유사도 값이 작게 나타나는 경향을 보였다. 이는 위험도 등급이 높은 곳의 경우, 해안선의 복잡한 지형형태 때문으로 판단된다. Mapping 분야에서 형상유사도 적합성 기준이 0.75이므로 결과는 60%이상이 정확하다고 판단할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서 검토를 수행했던 간단한 방정식을 이용한 SIND 모델은 정확하다고 판단할 수 있다. 다만, 복잡한 지형과 현재 고려되고 있는 영향인자 외에 다양한 구조물 등을 고려한다면 형상유사도가 향상될 것이라 기대된다.

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Development for Prediction Model of Disaster Risk through Try and Error Method : Storm Surge (시행 착오법을 활용한 재난 위험도 예측모델 개발 : 폭풍해일)

  • Kim, Dong Hyun;Yoo, HyungJu;Jeong, SeokIl;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2018
  • The storm surge is caused by an typhoons and it is not easy to predict the location, strength, route of the storm. Therefore, research using a scenario for storms occurrence has been conducted. In Korea, hazard maps for various scenarios were produced using the storm surge numerical simulation. Such a method has a disadvantage in that it is difficult to predict when other scenario occurs, and it is difficult to cope with in real time because the simulation time is long. In order to compensate for this, we developed a method to predict the storm surge damage by using research database. The risk grade prediction for the storm surge was performed predominantly in the study area of the East coast. In order to estimate the equation, COMSOL developed by COMSOL AB Corporation was utilized. Using some assumptions and limitations, the form of the basic equation was derived. the constants and coefficients in the equation were estimated by the trial and error method. Compared with the results, the spatial distribution of risk grade was similar except for the upper part of the map. In the case of the upper part of the map, it was shown that the resistance coefficient, k was calculated due to absence of elevation data. The SIND model is a method for real-time disaster prediction model and it is expected that it will be able to respond quickly to disasters caused by abnormal weather.

Modeling the 1997 High-Ozone Episode in the Greater Seoul Area with Densely-Distributed Meteorological Observations (상세한 기상관측 자료를 이용한 1997년 서울.수도권 고농도 오존 사례의 모델링)

  • 김진영;김영성
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2001
  • The high-ozone episode in the Greater Seoul Area for the period of July 27 to August 1 1997 was modeled by the CIT(California Institute of Technology) three-dimensional photochemical model. Emission data were prepared by scaling the NIER(1994) data through and optimization method using VOC measurements in August 1997 and EKMA(Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach). Two sets of meteorological data were prepared by the diagnostic routine. a part of the CIT model : one only utilized observations from the surface weather stations and the other also utilized observations from the automatic weather stations that were more densely distributed than those from the surface weather stations. The results showed that utilizing observations from the automatic weather stations could represent fine variations in the sind field such as those caused by topography. A better wind field gave better peak ozones and a more reasonable spatial distribution of ozone concentrations. Nevertheless, there were still many differences between predictions and observations particularly for primary pollutant such as NOx and CO. This was probably due to the inaccuracy of emission data that could not resolve both temporal and spatial variations.

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Estimation of methane emissions from local and crossbreed beef cattle in Daklak province of Vietnam

  • Ramirez-Restrepo, Carlos Alberto;Van Tien, Dung;Le Duc, Ngoan;Herrero, Mario;Le Dinh, Phung;Van, Dung Dinh;Le Thi Hoa, Sen;Chi, Cuong Vu;Solano-Patino, Cesar;Lerner, Amy M.;Searchinger, Timothy D.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.30 no.7
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    • pp.1054-1060
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    • 2017
  • Objective: This study was aimed at evaluating effects of cattle breed resources and alternative mixed-feeding practices on meat productivity and emission intensities from household farming systems (HFS) in Daklak Province, Vietnam. Methods: Records from Local $Yellow{\time}Red$ Sindhi (Bos indicus; Lai Sind) and 1/2 Limousin, 1/2 Drought Master, and 1/2 Red Angus cattle during the growth (0 to 21 months) and fattening (22 to 25 months) periods were used to better understand variations on meat productivity and enteric methane emissions. Parameters were determined by the ruminant model. Four scenarios were developed: (HFS1) grazing from birth to slaughter on native grasses for approximately 10 h plus 1.5 kg dry matter/d (0.8% live weight [LW]) of a mixture of guinea grass (19%), cassava (43%) powder, cotton (23%) seed, and rice (15%) straw; (HFS2) growth period fed with elephant grass (1% of LW) plus supplementation (1.5% of LW) of rice bran (36%), maize (33%), and cassava (31%) meals; and HFS3 and HFS4 computed elephant grass, but concentrate supplementation reaching 2% and 1% of LW, respectively. Results: Results show that compared to HFS1, emissions ($72.3{\pm}0.96kg\;CH_4/animal/life$; least squares $means{\pm}standard$ error of the mean) were 15%, 6%, and 23% lower (p<0.01) for the HFS2, HFS3, and HFS4, respectively. The predicted methane efficiencies ($CO_2eq$) per kg of LW at slaughter ($4.3{\pm}0.15$), carcass weight ($8.8{\pm}0.25kg$) and kg of edible protein ($44.1{\pm}1.29$) were also lower (p<0.05) in the HFS4. In particular, irrespective of the HSF, feed supply and ratio changes had a more positive impact on emission intensities when crossbred 1/2 Red Angus cattle were fed than in their crossbred counterparts. Conclusion: Modest improvements on feeding practices and integrated modelling frameworks may offer potential trade-offs to respond to climate change in Vietnam.