• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권5호
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• pp.1063-1070
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• 2017

This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.

• 설비공학논문집
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• 제27권7호
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• pp.354-361
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• 2015

The building energy audit is an important process when collecting basic information for improving the energy performance of existing buildings. Audit parameters should be associated with the energy performance of the building. Such audit parameters will vary according to an individual building's characteristics and energy consumption patterns, but most building energy audits are performed in the same way. The sensitivity analysis (SA) is a statistical method to quantify the correlation between inputs and outputs that can determine which input is influential to which output. Therefore, an SA can identify influential parameters when applied to building energy analysis. In this paper, we adopted the Morris method to identify building energy audit parameters and performed a Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis. As a result, this method was able to identify an influential parameter for building energy audits and reduce uncertainty in energy consumption in buildings.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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• 제14권7호
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• pp.551-560
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• 2004

A method how to determine the shock response spectrum from the FRF of the statistical energy analysis( SEA ) is presented here. The system of 3 different Plates connected by bolt joints is selected simulating missile structural sections Joined together. First, the SEA model was rendered by SEA parameters which were determined from experimental SEA method. Then, the mobility power was input to the SEA model and we can verify the validity of the model in the medium to high frequency range checking the reproduction of output average velocity. And, the shock induced shock response spectrum(SRS) was obtained using SEA FRF and arbitrarily chosen experimental FRF. We have compared the thus obtained SRS with actually measured SRS and they were relatively in good agreement. In this paper, we used the measured SEA FRF and therefore we have got the SRS well agreed with actually measured SHS even in the low frequency range. If the SEA FRF of well verified SEA model is used, the good result will come out in SEA effective frequency range which is more important at SRS.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.177-189
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• 2017

For energy-based seismic design, a simplified normalized cumulative hysteretic energy spectrum proposed for obtaining hysteretic energy as energy demand is the main objective in this paper. The dimensionless parameter, ${\beta}_{Eh}$, is presented to express hysteretic energy indirectly. The ${\beta}_{Eh}$ spectrum is constructed directly through subtracting the hysteretic energy of single degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system energy equation. The simplified ${\beta}_{Eh}$ spectral formulation as well as pseudo-acceleration spectrum of modern seismic provisions is developed based on the regression analysis of the large number of seismic responses of SDOF system subjected to earthquake excitations, which considers the influence of earthquake event, soil type, damping ratio, and ductility factor. The relationship between PGV and PGA is established according to the statistical analysis relied on a total of 422 ground motion records. The combination of ${\beta}_{Eh}$ spectrum and PGV/PGA equation allows determining the cumulative hysteretic energy as a main aseismic design indicator.

• 대한기계학회논문집B
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• 제35권12호
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• pp.1351-1358
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• 2011

열펌프의 고장감지 및 진단을 위하여 측정값에 대한 분석은 필수적이다. 열펌프의 고장감지는 열전대 등의 온도센서로 수행되는데, 재연성과 센서자체의 오차에 의해 시스템의 정상상태 측정값들은 통상 백색 노이즈의 형태로 존재한다. 고장감지 및 진단시스템을 구축하기 위하여 이상적인 정상상태를 정의하는 기준모델을 추출하게 되는데, 실제 측정값과 모델에 의한 기대값은 수학적 편차, 즉 잔차가 필연적으로 존재하게 된다. 이러한 잔차는 운전조건에 따라 변화하며, 다양한 불확실도를 포함한 확률분포를 갖게 된다. 본 연구에서는 온도센서를 활용하여 정상상태 진단을 수행하고 이를 기반으로 기준모델을 도출하였다. 이후 실측값과 기준모델과의 잔차를 통계적으로 분석하여 고장여부를 판단하는 경계값을 산출하였다. 본 분석에 의하여 열펌프의 고장감지 및 진단시스템의 개발을 위한 불확실도와 경계값을 통계적으로 계산함으로써 진단결과의 확률적 신뢰성을 보장할 수 있는 방법론을 제공하였다.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신재생에너지학회 2006년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.296-297
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• 2006

In order to support wind power development, the wind resource database of Jejudo has been established by meteo-statistical analysis on meteorological-mast measurements of KIER. Analysis processes contain correlation of monthly wind speed and power-law exponent among neighboring sites, Measure-Correlated-Predict for long-term correlation, classification of exposure category using satellite image and so forth. It is found that the monthly variations of wind speed and power-law exponent depend on seasonal winds and characterize wind system of Jejudo.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.349-359
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• 2017

During the past 25 years, in the context of probabilistic safety assessment, efforts have been directed towards establishment of comprehensive pipe failure event databases as a foundation for exploratory research to better understand how to effectively organize a piping reliability analysis task. The focused pipe failure database development efforts have progressed well with the development of piping reliability analysis frameworks that utilize the full body of service experience data, fracture mechanics analysis insights, expert elicitation results that are rolled into an integrated and risk-informed approach to the estimation of piping reliability parameters with full recognition of the embedded uncertainties. The discussion in this paper builds on a major collection of operating experience data (more than 11,000 pipe failure records) and the associated lessons learned from data analysis and data applications spanning three decades. The piping reliability analysis lessons learned have been obtained from the derivation of pipe leak and rupture frequencies for corrosion resistant piping in a raw water environment, loss-of-coolant-accident frequencies given degradation mitigation, high-energy pipe break analysis, moderate-energy pipe break analysis, and numerous plant-specific applications of a statistical piping reliability model framework. Conclusions are presented regarding the feasibility of determining and incorporating aging effects into probabilistic safety assessment models.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 1998년도 춘계학술대회논문집; 용평리조트 타워콘도, 21-22 May 1998
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• pp.75-80
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• 1998

Statistical Energy Analysis(SEA) has been considered as a possible method for predicting responses of complex structures, especially at higher frequencies. In this paper, an SEA model of vehicle was built using 138 energy storing subsystems connected together using 1019 junctions. SEAM software program was used to build and calculate the model. To demonstrate the accuracy of the SEA model, predicted response levels were compared with measured levels. The source input levels were measured at the engine mounting parts. For the vibration levels, the agreement between the calculation results and the experimental ones was found to be good. The energy flow between connected subsystems can be presented, because the analysis method is based on the estimation of the power flow between subsystems. This paper also identifies some dominant energy flow paths from sources. It is finally presented that the SEA model can optimize the design parameters of vehicles using model parameters and energy flow paths.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.83-90
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• 2014

South Korea's solar energy industry has been made vertical integration and specialization as part of the restructuring in the downturn of the world economy and the oversupply situation of raw materials. This study is to understand the characteristics of the solar energy industry, using data to systematic approach. In this study, it was defined the major business of firms as 22 business types and classified into 5 enterprise groups as technology and business strategy. After that, It was deduced features of Enterprise group by the statistical analysis and looked to draw a map of the industrial structure by social network analysis using the information on companies' demand and supply.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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• 제20권11호
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• pp.1097-1102
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• 2010

In this paper, the energy flow analysis(EFA) of the body-in-white door of a real automotive was performed using the energy flow finite element method(EFFEM) to effectively predict the vibrational responses of built-up structures in the medium to high frequency range. To increase the validity of EFA results, the structural hysteresis damping loss factor was measured by the experiment using the concept of statistical energy analysis(SEA). As the excitation frequency increases, the predicted results simulated with EFFEM generally agree with the experimental results.