• 제목/요약/키워드: Supply-Demand Outlook model

검색결과 14건 처리시간 0.025초

Supply models for stability of supply-demand in the Korean pork market

  • Chunghyeon, Kim;Hyungwoo, Lee ;Tongjoo, Suh
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제49권3호
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    • pp.679-690
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    • 2022
  • As the supply and demand of pork has become a significant concern in Korea, controlling it has become a critical challenge for the industry. However, compared to the demand for pork, which has relatively stable consumption, it is not easy to maintain a stable supply. As the preparation of measures for a supply-demand crisis response and supply control in the pig industry has emerged as an important task, it has become necessary to establish a stable supply model and create an appropriate manual. In this study, a pork supply prediction model is constructed using reported data from the pig traceability system. Based on the derived results, a method for determining the supply-demand crisis stage using a statistical approach was proposed. From the results of the analysis, working days, African swine fever, heat wave, and Covid-19 were shown to affect the number of pigs graded in the market. A test of the performance of the model showed that both in-sample error rate and out-sample error rate were between 0.3 - 7.6%, indicating a high level of predictive power. Applying the forecast, the distribution of the confidence interval of the predicted value was established, and the supply crisis stage was identified, evaluating supply-demand conditions.

Analysis of users of agricultural outlook information

  • Seungjee Hong;Ga Eul Kim;Seon Min Park;Sounghun Kim
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제49권4호
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    • pp.833-843
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    • 2022
  • Since the supply and demand of agricultural products are unstable, which causes instability in farm income and consumer prices, the government has sought to mitigate the problems caused by unstable supply and demand by generating and providing agricultural outlook information. However, research should be carried out to increase the quality and utilization of agricultural observation information, because the value of agricultural observation information increases only when more users use this information and apply it to their decisions. In this study, a survey was conducted targeting producers and experts who are users or potential users of agricultural outlook information, and the results were analyzed through quantitative model, specifically importance-performance analysis (IPA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The results show that improvement of promptness was required among the seven items evaluated with regard to agricultural outlook. Also, measures for dissemination of agricultural outlook information and the contents of outlook information should be improved to increase its use. If the quality level and use of agricultural observation information are increased by reflecting the results of the above analysis, decision-making on the supply and demand of agricultural products in Korea will be improved, and it is thought that it will be possible to increase farm household income and stabilize consumer prices through stabilization of supply and demand of agricultural products.

양식 넙치 중장기 시장 규모 추정 (An Estimation on the Market Size of Aqua-cultured Flatfish in Korea)

  • 김배성;김충현;조재환;이남수
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제16권11호
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    • pp.7781-7787
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    • 2015
  • 본 논문은 국내 양식 넙치 중장기 시장 규모 추정을 위해 구축된 수급전망모형을 개발한 내용과 이 모형을 이용하여 2015년-2017년 기간에 대해 시장 규모(수급 및 가격)를 예측한 내용을 소개하고 있다. 양식 넙치 수급전망모형은 단일품목 부분균형모형이며 동태 축차적 시뮬레이션 모형으로 개발되었고, 모형내 각 행태방정식은 계량경제학 방법을 이용하여 추정되었다. 중 장기 시장 규모 전망에 앞서 모형의 예측정확도는 RMSPE, MAPE, Theil의 불균등계수를 기준으로 검토되었다. 예측력 검토결과, 양식면적, 양성물량, 출하량, 도매가격은 모두 4% 이내의 양호한 오차율을 보였다. 국내 양식 넙치 시장 규모 전망결과, 생산량은 2015년 37,445톤, 2017년 42,561톤에 이를 것으로 전망되었고, 산지가격은 2015년 9,226원(1kg 기준), 2017년 10,191원될 것으로 전망되었다.

제주 월동무 중장기 수급전망 모형의 개발 (A Study on the Development of Supply-Demand Outlook Model for Jeju Winter Radish)

  • 김배성;고봉현
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.1471-1477
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    • 2014
  • 본 논문은 제주 월동무의 중장기 수급전망을 위해 구축된 수급전망모형의 개발 내용과 이 모형을 이용하여 2014-2018년 기간에 대한 수급 및 가격을 전망한 내용을 소개하고 있다. 제주 월동무 수급전망모형은 개별 품목에 대해 구축된 부분균형모형이며, 모형내 각 방정식들은 계량경제학 방법을 이용하여 추정되었다. 중장기 전망에 앞서 시행된 모형의 예측력은 RMSPE, MAPE, Theil의 불균등계수를 기준으로 검토되었다. 예측력 검토결과, RMSPE 기준으로 재배면적, 단수, 생산량, 소비량은 4% 이내의 매우 우수한 오차율을 보였고, 도매가격은 오차율 10% 이내의 비교적 양호한 예측력을 보였다. 중장기 수급 및 가격 전망결과, 제주 월동무 재배면적은 2013년 5,145ha, 2018년 6,650ha에 이를 것으로 전망된다. 월동무 생산량은 2013년 334,434톤으로 추정되고, 2018년 433,310톤으로 전망된다.

수급모형을 이용한 목제품 시장 전망 (Outlook of Wood Products Markets with Supply and Demand Model)

  • 이상민;김경덕;송성환;박지은
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제103권3호
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    • pp.462-472
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    • 2014
  • 이 연구는 목제품의 수급모형을 개발하고, 제품별로 중장기적인 수요와 공급을 전망하는 데 목적이 있다. 목제품 시장 수급모형은 주요 제품인 제재목, 합판, 파티클보드, 섬유판, 펄프 등으로 한정하였다. 각각의 제품에 대해 공급함수, 수입수요함수, 수요함수 등을 추정하여 부분균형 모형을 구축하였다. 주어진 외생변수를 이용하여 2050년까지 전망한 결과 제재목, 합판, 섬유판 등의 국내공급 및 수입은 감소할 것으로 예상된다. 이는 환경보호와 자원의 무기화 등으로 인해 국내외 원목가격이 인상될 것이라고 예상하였기 때문이다. 반면 폐재를 재활용하는 파티클보드와 목재칩을 원료로 이용하는 펄프의 경우 전체적인 공급은 늘어날 것으로 전망된다.

Monthly Hanwoo supply and forecasting models

  • Hyungwoo, Lee;Seonu, Ji;Tongjoo, Suh
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제48권4호
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    • pp.797-806
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    • 2021
  • As the number of scaled-up ranches increased and agile responses to market changes became possible, decision-making by Hanwoo cattle farms also began to affect short-term shipments. Considering the changing environment of the Hanwoo supply market and the response speed of producers, it is necessary quickly to grasp the forecast ahead of time and to respond accordingly in an effort to stabilize supply and demand in the Hanwoo market. In this study, short-term forecasting model centered on the supply of Hanwoo was established. The analysis conducted here indicates that the slaughter of Hanwoo males increases by 0.248 as the number of beef cattle raised over 29 months of age in the previous month increases by one, and 0.764 Hanwoo females were slaughtered under average conditions for every Hanwoo male slaughtered. With regard to time, the slaughtering of Hanwoo was higher in January and August, which are months known for holiday food preparation activities for the New Year and Chuseok in Korea, respectively. Simulations indicated that errors were within 10% in all simulations performed through the Hanwoo supply model. Accordingly, it is considered that the estimation results from the supply model devised in this study are reliable and that the model has good structural stability.

VECM모형을 이용한 국내 희유금속의 수요예측모형 (A Study on Demand Forecasting Model of Domestic Rare Metal Using VECM model)

  • 김홍민;정병희
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제36권4호
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2008
  • The rare metals, used for semiconductors, PDP-LCS and other specialized metal areas necessarily, has been playing a key role for the Korean economic development. Rare metals are influenced by exogenous variables, such as production quantity, price and supplied areas. Nowadays the supply base of rare metals is threatened by the sudden increase in price. For the stable supply of rare metals, a rational demand outlook is needed. In this study, focusing on the domestic demand for chromium, the uncertainty and probability materializing from demand and price is analyzed, further, a demand forecast model, which takes into account various exogenous variables, is suggested, differing from the previously static model. Also, through the OOS(out-of-sampling) method, comparing to the preexistence ARIMA model, ARMAX model, multiple regression analysis model and ECM(Error Correction Mode) model, we will verify the superiority of suggested model in this study.

AHP 기법을 이용한 우리나라 수산업관측사업의 추진방향에 관한 연구 (A Study on Development Strategies of the Korean Fisheries Outlook Project based on AHP)

  • 남종오;노승국
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제41권1호
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    • pp.25-52
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this paper is to suggest major strategies and necessary new projects for the medium- and long-term development of the Korean Fisheries Outlook Project. To suggest the Korean Fisheries Outlook Center with the above purpose, this paper employs Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis based on surveys obtained by special groups related with the KFOP. The survey is broadly composed of two goals; the medium- and long-term development directions and setting up of new furtherance projects. Each goal has upper and lower strategies respectively. The first goal, the medium- and long-term development directions, has four factors as upper strategies. The upper strategies are composed of accuracy, efficiency, timeliness, and political effectiveness of the fisheries outlook information. In addition, each upper strategy has three lower strategies respectively. For example, accuracy of the fisheries outlook information includes strength of data collection function, strength of satellite photography function, and strength of data analysis function. The second goal, setting up of new furtherance projects, has three factors as upper strategies. The upper strategies consist of accuracy promotion of outlook information using high-technique, field expansion of outlook species, and strength of analyzing function on oversea fisheries information. Each upper strategy has three lower strategies respectively. For instant, accuracy promotion of outlook information using high-technique has strength of information analysis function covered from production to consumption, strength of satellite information function, and structure of forecasting model on demand and supply by outlook species. The above upper and lower strategies were analytically drawn out through insightful interviews with special groups such as officials of the government, presidents of the producer and distributor groups, and researchers of the Korea Maritime Institute and other research institutes. As a result of AHP analysis, first, priorities of upper strategies with the medium- and long-term development directions are analyzed as accuracy, timeliness, political effectiveness, and efficiency in order. Also, priorities of all lower strategies reflecting priorities of upper strategies are examined as includes strength of data collection function on the fisheries outlook information, delivery of rapid information on outlook products for all people interested, strength of data analysis function on fisheries outlook information, strength of consumption outlook function on fish products, and strength of early warning system for domestic fish products in order. Second, priorities of upper strategies with the setting up of new furtherance projects are analyzed as accuracy promotion of outlook information using high-technique, field expansion of outlook species, and strength of analysis function on oversea fisheries information in order. In addition, priorities of all lower strategies reflecting priorities of upper strategies are examined as building up of forecasting model on demand and supply by outlook species, strength of information analysis function covering all steps from production to consumption, expansion of consumption outlook for consumers, strength of movement analysis function of oversea farming industry, and outlook expansion of farming species.

약용작물 오미자의 중장기 수급전망 분석 (An Analysis on Supply-Demand Outlook of Korean Omija(Medicinal Plant))

  • 최병옥;김배성
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제15권5호
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    • pp.2689-2694
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    • 2014
  • 이 연구는 한 중 FTA 체결에 따른 오미자의 시장 파급영향을 계측 분석하여, 2014-2018년 동안의 중장기 수급의 변화를 검토한 내용을 담고 있다. 오미자에 대한 한 중 FTA 체결의 구체적인 내용을 알 수 없는 상황에서, 실현가능한 오미자 시장개방 상황을 시나리오로 구성하여 수급모형에 도입하고, 현재 중국산 오미자의 수입상황을 반영하여 분석하였다. 오미자에 대한 중장기 수급 및 가격 전망을 위해 오미자 개별 품목에 대한 별도의 부분균형모형을 구축하였고, 모형내 각 방정식들은 계량경제학 방법을 이용하여 추정하였다. 분석결과, 관세율이 현행 8%에서 2014년부터 2018년까지 단계적으로 철폐될 경우, 재배면적은 2018년 3,370ha으로 다소 감소하고, 소비량은 2018년 12,040.8톤으로 증가하는 것으로 전망되고, 생산액이 5년간(2014-2018)누적으로 약 98억원 수준 감소하는 것으로 추정되었다.

A study of a flatfish outlook model using a partial equilibrium model approach based on a DEEM system

  • Sukho, Han;Sujin, Heo;Namsu, Lee
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제48권4호
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    • pp.815-829
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to construct a flatfish outlook model that is consistent with the "Fisheries outlook" monthly publication of the fisheries outlook center of the Korea Maritime Institute (KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to flatfish items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model (DEEM) system, considering biological breeding and shipping times. Due to limited amounts of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated using a recursive model method as the inverse demand. The main research results and implications are as follows. As a result of estimating young fish inventory levels, the coefficient of the young fish inventory in the previous period was estimated to be 0.03, which was not statistically significant. Because there is distinct seasonality, when estimating the breeding outcomes, the elasticity of breeding in the previous period was found to exceed 0.7, and it increased more as the weight of the fish increased, in addition, the shipment coefficient gradually increased as the weight increased, which means that as the fish weight increased, the shipment compared to the breeding volume increased. When estimating shipments, the elasticity of breeding in previous period was estimated to respond elastically as the weight increases. The price flexibility coefficient of the total supply was inelastically estimated to be -0.19. Finally, according to a model predictive power test, the Theil U1 was estimated to be very low for all of the predictors, indicating excellent predictive power.