• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.334-340
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• 2015

Engine derating is often considered for reliability benefits because lower power operation reduces its failure probability. To be derated during operation, however, the engine must be initially overdesigned. The engine overdesign is cost effective only if reliability increased from derating is enough to offset the initial increase in the development cost caused from the overdesign. The purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical model to consider a trade-off between the engine overdesign and derating. We use a logistic regression model to explain reliability growth in the number of hot firing tests for a fixed power level. Using the Transcost model with the reliability growth model, we show that 10% overdesign of Titan rocket engine decreases its development cost by about 9% and 23% depending on the reliability requirement. We also point out that such a cost reduction depends on the fuel type a rocket uses.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.567-575
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• 2011

The development of space launch vehicle is an important step to advance to developed countries in the space area. It is also so risky due to necessity of huge costs and longer development period. The accuracy of cost estimation is important to develop a space launch vehicle successfully and efficiently. It is also necessary to estimate production and operation cost in order to develop commercial space launch vehicle possessing competitiveness. In this paper, Korean factors to be able to reflect the current state of workforce, average working hours and technology readiness level in Korea were analyzed to estimate production and operation cost of space launch vehicles that are developed in Korea. Korean factors have been applied to production and operation cost estimation of KSLV-II based on TRANSCOST. We evaluated the competitiveness level of KSLV-II as the commercial launch vehicle in the commercial launch services market by comparing with cost per flight of foreign launch vehicles.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.364-374
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to perform the reliability-corrected development cost estimation of the launch vehicle at the conceptual design phase. In order to estimate the launch vehicle development cost, the estimation method based on the independent variable such as the rocket performance and dry mass has been mainly implemented up to now. This approach has made the approximate cost estimation possible, however, the cost variation according to the reliability requirement could not be reflected. In this paper, the cost estimation methodology that introduces the reliability factor in addition to the performance and mass in the TRANSCOST model is presented in order to improve the limitation of current cost estimation method. The development cost of KSLV(Korea Space Launch Vehicle)-II is estimated on the basis of this newly implemented concept with reliability as an added parameter.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.165-173
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• 2007

A space launch vehicle system represents a typical example of large-scale multi-disciplinary systems, consisting of subsystems such as mechanical structure, electronics, control, telecommunication, propulsion, material engineering etc. A lot of cost is required to develop the launch vehicle system. A precise planning of R&D cost is very essential to make a success of the launch vehicle development program. Especially in the early development phase of a new space launch vehicle system, cost estimation techniques and analogy from past similar development data are very useful methods to estimate a development cost of the launch vehicle system. Now Korea Aerospace Research Institute is in charge of the KSLV-I (Korea Space Launch Vehicle-I) Program that is a part of Korea National Space program. KSLV-I Program is a national undertaking to develop launch capabilities to deliver science satellites of a 100kg-class into a low earth orbit. It is hereafter, going to plan to develop a new korean space launch vehicle. In this paper, first the development costs of well-known launch vehicles in the world are presented to provide a reference to make a development plan of a new launch vehicle. Second this paper introduces the present status of cost estimation applications at NASA. Finally this paper presents the results from application of a TRANSCOST, a parametric cost model, to derive a cost estimate of a new launch vehicle development, as an example.