• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull distribution

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Underlying Values of Real-time Traffic Information on Variable Message Sign Using Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) (조건부가치추정법을 이용한 VMS교통정보의 기본가치 추정연구)

  • Lee, Gyeong-A;Kim, Jun-Gi;O, Seong-Ho;Lee, Yeong-In
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2011
  • In the benefits of ITS, there are intangible gains from real-time traffic information as well as classical gains such as travel time saving. These intangible gains are difficult to be estimated by existing transportation investment appraisal commonly used in SOC investment. The major reason is not because of the absence of methodology but because of the absence of generalized values of particular benefits from real time traffic information. This research explores the value of real-time traffic information on VMS that is the most representative of ITS services, by using CVM with Double Bounded Dichotomous Choice Question. Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) functions of drivers are built with survival functions using various types of probability distribution functions such as Exponential, Log-logistic, and Weibull functions. The results reveal that Log-logistic distribution is the most appropriate distribution model to estimate WTP, and the estimated coefficients are stable through LR (Likelihood Ratio) test. For the further study, it is recommended to perform statistical tests of temporal and spatial transferability that is not examined in this research due to the lack of data.

Comparison of Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches through Cases of Exposure Assessment of Child Products (어린이용품 노출평가 연구에서의 결정론적 및 확률론적 방법론 사용실태 분석 및 고찰)

  • Jang, Bo Youn;Jeong, Da-In;Lee, Hunjoo
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.223-232
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: In response to increased interest in the safety of children's products, a risk management system is being prepared through exposure assessment of hazardous chemicals. To estimate exposure levels, risk assessors are using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to statistical methodology and a commercialized Monte Carlo simulation based on tools (MCTool) to efficiently support calculation of the probability density functions. This study was conducted to analyze and discuss the usage patterns and problems associated with the results of these two approaches and MCTools used in the case of probabilistic approaches by reviewing research reports related to exposure assessment for children's products. Methods: We collected six research reports on exposure and risk assessment of children's products and summarized the deterministic results and corresponding underlying distributions for exposure dose and concentration results estimated through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. We focused on mechanisms and differences in the MCTools used for decision making with probabilistic distributions to validate the simulation adequacy in detail. Results: The estimation results of exposure dose and concentration from the deterministic approaches were 0.19-3.98 times higher than the results from the probabilistic approach. For the probabilistic approach, the use of lognormal, Student's T, and Weibull distributions had the highest frequency as underlying distributions of the input parameters. However, we could not examine the reasons for the selection of each distribution because of the absence of test-statistics. In addition, there were some cases estimating the discrete probability distribution model as the underlying distribution for continuous variables, such as weight. To find the cause of abnormal simulations, we applied two MCTools used for all reports and described the improper usage routes of MCTools. Conclusions: For transparent and realistic exposure assessment, it is necessary to 1) establish standardized guidelines for the proper use of the two statistical approaches, including notes by MCTool and 2) consider the development of a new software tool with proper configurations and features specialized for risk assessment. Such guidelines and software will make exposure assessment more user-friendly, consistent, and rapid in the future.

게이트 유전체용 $HfO_2$ 박막의 증착 및 열처리 조건에 따른 Nano-Mechanical 특성 연구

  • Kim, Ju-Yeong;Kim, Su-In;Lee, Gyu-Yeong;Gwon, Gu-Eun;Kim, Min-Seok;Eom, Seung-Hyeon;Jeong, Hyeon-Jin;Jo, Yong-Seok;Park, Seung-Ho;Lee, Chang-U
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2012.08a
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    • pp.291-292
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    • 2012
  • MOSFET 구조에서 metal oxide에 기반을 둔 게이트 유전체의 연구는 실리콘(Si)을 기반으로 한 반도체 발명이래로 가장 인상적인 발전을 이뤄 왔다. 이는 metal oxide의 높은 유전상수 특성이 $SiO_2$보다 우수하고, 유전체 박막의 두께 감소로 인한 전기적 특성 저하를 보완하기 때문이다. 특히 지난 10년 동안, Hafnium에 기반을 둔 $HfO_2$는 차세대 반도체용 유전 물질로 전기적 구조적 특성에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되어왔다. 그러나 현재까지 $HfO_2$에 대한 nano-mechanical 특성 연구는 미미하여 이에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 Hf 및 $HfO_2$ 박막의 증착 및 열처리 조건을 다르게 하여 실험을 진행하였다. 시료는 rf magnetron sputter를 이용하여 Si 기판위에 Hafnium target으로 산소유량(4, 6 sccm)을 달리하여 증착하였고, 이후 furnace에서 400에서 $800^{\circ}C$까지 질소분위기에서 20분간 열처리를 실시하였다. 실험결과 산소 유량을 6 sccm으로 증착한 시료의 current density 성능이 모든 열처리 과정에서 증가하였다. Nano-indenter로 측정하고 Weibull distribution으로 정량적 계산을 한 경도 (Hardness)는 as-deposited 시료를 기준으로 $400^{\circ}C$에서는 감소했으나 온도가 높아질수록 증가하였다. 특히, $400^{\circ}C$ 열처리한 시료에서 산소농도에(4 sccm : 5.35 GPa, 6 sccm : 6.15 GPa)따른 두 시료간의 변화가 가장 두드러졌다. 반면에, 탄성계수 (Elastic modulus)는 산소농도 6 sccm을 넣고 증착된 시료들이 4 sccm을 넣고 증착한 시료보다 모두 높은 값을 나타냈다. 또한, $800^{\circ}C$ 열처리한 시료에서 산소농도에(4 sccm : 128.88 GPa, 6 sccm : 149.39 GPa)따라 표면의 탄성에 큰 차이가 있음을 확인하였다. 이는 증착된 $HfO_2$ 시료들이 비정질 상태에서 $HfO_2$로 결정화되는 과정에서 산소가 증가할수록 박막의 defect이 감소되기 때문으로 사료된다.

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Application of a Non-Mixture Cure Rate Model for Analyzing Survival of Patients with Breast Cancer

  • Baghestani, Ahmad Reza;Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi;Majd, Hamid Alavi;Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil;Nafissi, Nahid;Gohari, Kimiya
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.16
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    • pp.7359-7363
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    • 2015
  • Background: As a result of significant progress made in treatment of many types of cancers during the last few decades, there have been an increased number of patients who do not experience mortality. We refer to these observations as cure or immune and models for survival data which include cure fraction are known as cure rate models or long-term survival models. Materials and Methods: In this study we used the data collected from 438 female patients with breast cancer registered in the Cancer Research Center in Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. The patients had been diagnosed from 1992 to 2012 and were followed up until October 2014. We had to exclude some because of incomplete information. Phone calls were made to confirm whether the patients were still alive or not. Deaths due to breast cancer were regarded as failure. To identify clinical, pathological, and biological characteristics of patients that might have had an effect on survival of the patients we used a non-mixture cure rate model; in addition, a Weibull distribution was proposed for the survival time. Analyses were performed using STATA version 14. The significance level was set at $P{\leq}0.05$. Results: A total of 75 patients (17.1%) died due to breast cancer during the study, up to the last follow-up. Numbers of metastatic lymph nodes and histologic grade were significant factors. The cure fraction was estimated to be 58%. Conclusions: When a cure fraction is not available, the analysis will be changed to standard approaches of survival analysis; however when the data indicate that the cure fraction is available, we suggest analysis of survival data via cure models.

Reliability Evaluation of Concentric Butterfly Valve Using Statistical Hypothesis Test (통계적 가설검정을 이용한 중심형 버터플라이 밸브의 신뢰성 평가)

  • Chang, Mu-Seong;Choi, Jong-Sik;Choi, Byung-Oh;Kim, Do-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.12
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    • pp.1305-1311
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    • 2015
  • A butterfly valve is a type of flow-control device typically used to regulate a fluid flow. This paper presents an estimation of the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, characteristic life, and $B_{10}$ life for a concentric butterfly valve based on a statistical analysis of the reliability test data taken before and after the valve improvement. The difference in the shape and scale parameters between the existing and improved valves is reviewed using a statistical hypothesis test. The test results indicate that the shape parameter of the improved valve is similar to that of the existing valve, and that the scale parameter of the improved valve is found to have increased. These analysis results are particularly useful for a reliability qualification test and the determination of the service life cycles.

V-t and Barrier Characteristics for HTS Transformer Insulation Design (고온초전도변압기 절연설계를 위한 격벽효과와 수명특성)

  • Joung, Jong-Man;Baek, Sung-Myeong;Kim, Young-Seok;Kwak, Dong-Soon;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2003.05e
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    • pp.61-64
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    • 2003
  • In the response to an increasing demand for electrical energy, much effort aimed to develop and commercialise HTS power equipments is going on around the world. For the development, it is necessary to establish the dielectric technology in $LN_2$. Hence many types of dielectric tests should be carried out to understand the dielectric phenomena at cryogenic temperature and to gather various dielectric data. Among the many types dielectric tests, the barrier effect were conducted with the simulated electrode after analysing the insulating configuration of the pancake coil type HTS transformer. The influence of a barrier on the dielectric strength was measured according to the size and the position of the barrier. It was shown that the effectiveness, the ratio of the breakdown voltage in presence of barrier to the voltage without barrier, is highest when the barrier is placed at the needle electrode side. And the barrier effect was not depend on the electrode array. The life time to breakdown with decreasing the applied voltage was increased remarkably having wide error band but the shape parameter in Weibull distribution was almost constant.

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Field data analyses for products with multiple-modes of failure (고장원인이 여럿인 제품의 사용현장 데이터 분석)

  • 배도선;최인수;황용근
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.89-104
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    • 1995
  • This paper is concerned with the method of estimating lifetime distributin from field data for products with multiple modes of failure. When product failures occur within warranty period, a manufacturer can obtain failure-record data; failure times, causes of failure, and covariates. Since these data are seriously incomplete for satisfactory inference, that is, only failures occured during warrantly period may be recorded, it is usually necessary to incoporate the failure-record data by taking a supplementary sample of items obtained following up a portion of products that survive warranty time. The log linear function is considered as a model for describing the relation between failure time of a product and covariates. General methods for obtaining pseudo maximum likelihood estimators(PMLEs) for the parameters are outlined and their asymptotic properties are studied, and specific formulas for exponential or Weibull distribution are obtained. Effects of follow-up percentage on the PMLEs are investigated. Extensions to calendar time warranty or calendar and obtaining time warranty are also considered.

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Evaluation on the Lightning Breakdown Voltages of Palm Oil and Coconut Oil under Non-Uniform Field at Small Gap Distances

  • Thien, Yee Von;Azis, Norhafiz;Jasni, Jasronita;Kadir, Mohd Zainal Abidin Ab;Yunus, Robiah;Ishak, Mohd Taufiq;Yaakub, Zaini
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.184-191
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    • 2016
  • In recent years, there are a number of studies that have been carried out to explore the alternative for Mineral Oil (MO) as dielectric insulating fluid in transformers due to the increasing tight regulation on safety and environment. Vegetable oils have been identified as suitable candidate since it is biodegradable, non-toxic and high flash/fire points which ensure more in-service safety. Among the types of vegetable oils considered for transformers application are Palm Oil (PO) and Coconut Oil (CO). This paper presents an experimental study on the lightning breakdown voltages of PO and CO under non-uniform electric field based on needle-sphere electrodes configuration at 3 small gap distances. The type of PO used in this study is Refined Bleached and Deodorized Palm Oil (RBDPO) Olein. The main focus of this study is to examine the lightning breakdown performance of RBDPO and CO under different test conditions and assess its suitability as dielectric insulating fluid in transformers. The effect of voltage polarities (positive and negative) and testing methods (rising-voltage, up-and-down and multiple-voltage) were investigated. The data obtained from all tests were analysed by Weibull distribution in order to determine the withstand voltages for each type of oils. It was found that the breakdown voltages of RBDPO and CO are comparable with MO under positive lightning impulse. Under negative lightning impulse, the breakdown voltage of MO is slightly higher than RBDPO and CO. There is no significant effect of testing methods and voltage polarities on lightning breakdown voltages of RBDPO and CO. Based on the statistical analysis, it is found that the breakdown voltages of RBDPO and CO at 1% probability are slightly lower than MO.

Reliability Qualification Test of a Unmanned Control Robot System for an Excavator (굴삭기용 무인조종로봇 신뢰성 보증 시험에 대한 연구)

  • Back, Seung Jun;Son, Young Kap;Kim, Jun Hee;Lee, Jong Cheol
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.397-403
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes the development of a method for assessing the system reliability of an unmanned control robot system for an excavator. It then shows the results of the reliability qualification test based on the proposed method. The robot system functions to ensure the safety of the workers who control excavators in dangerous working environments, and the system reliability was calculated by integrating the reliabilities of the system components. Thus, test equipment for the three key units of the robot system were constructed and used in accelerated life testing. From the life testing results, guaranteed mean time between failures for the chosen confidence level was estimated, and the reliability qualification testing method of the robot system using small sample sizes was proposed.

Survey for the Management of Reservoirs under Control of Local Authorities of Reservoir of City.Gun in Korea (시.군 관리 저수지 실태 조사 및 정비방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Won;Kim, Han-Jung;Yoon, Seong-Su;Kim, Jong-Ok;Jung, Nam-Su;Lee, Hyung-Jin;Han, Yi-Cheol;Lee, Jeong-Jae
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2008
  • There are many agricultural facilities (46.7%) that have been over 30 years in the Republic of Korea (the ratio of reservoirs built before 1945 is 53%, from 1946 to 1971 is 35%). In the case of reservoirs which do most important functions among these facilities, only 3,000 reservoirs are managed by Korea Rural Community & Agriculture Corporation (KRC) and the other 15,000 reservoirs are managed by local authorities (City and Gun). But, 15,000 reservoirs included in City. Gun have been built in more wide area than KRC and the reservoir management system has not been operated well because of shortage of budget and manpower of the local authorities. Particularly, the abnormal weather happened during every summer season recently has ruined a lot of rural community facilities. So flood control function have been more important than irrigation function in agricultural reservoir system and it may be required to introduce new safe, management and maintenance techniques in City Gun reservoirs. So we investigated landscapes and deteriorations of agricultural reservoirs managed by local small governments for revealing not only present usage but also future value. Survey shows that there are no structural managements except typical hydrological reportings and the deterioration of small darn is very serious. There are needs for more systematic management system and equipment methods. Therefore, this study may suggest that reservoir (that takes charge of the greatest deal of weight in all agricultural facilities) must be considered as new concept of the usage and the unification. On the other hand, reservoir must be also developed as amenity resources, natural circumstances and district values.