• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
• /
• v.46 no.4
• /
• pp.959-972
• /
• 2018

Purpose: This study developed a simulation model that incorporates the uncertainty of demand and yield to obtain optimized results for supply chain coordination within environmental constraints. The objective of this study is to examine whether yield management for perishable products can achieve the goal of supply chain coordination between a single buyer and a single supplier under a variety of environmental conditions. Methods: We investigated the efficiency of a revenue-sharing contract and a wholesale price contract by considering demand and yield uncertainty, profit maximizing ratio, and success ratio. The implications for environmental variation were derived through a comparative analysis between the wholesale price contract and the revenue-sharing contract. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to give us the results of an optimized supply chain within the environments defined by the experimental factors and parameters. Results: We found that a revised revenue-sharing contracting model was more efficient than the wholesale price contract model and allowed all members of the supply chain to achieve higher profits. First, as the demand variation (${\sigma}$) increased, the profit of the total supply chain increased. Second, as the revenue-sharing ratio (${\Phi}$) increased, the profits of the manufacturer gradually decreased, while the profits of the retailer gradually increased, and this change was linear. Third, as the quality of yield increased, the profits of suppliers appear to increased. At last, success rate was expressed as the profit increased in the revenue-sharing contract compared to the profit increase in the wholesale price contract. Conclusion: The managerial implications of the simulation findings are: (1) a strategic approach to demand and yield uncertainty helps in efficient resource utilization and improved supply chain performance, (2) a revenue-sharing contract amplifies the effect of yield uncertainty, and (3) revised revenue-sharing contracts fetch more profits for both buyers and suppliers in the supply chain.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.43 no.12
• /
• pp.1011-1027
• /
• 2010

In hydrologic modeling, prediction uncertainty generally stems from various uncertainty sources associated with model structure, data, and parameters, etc. This study aims to assess the parameter uncertainty effect on hydrologic prediction results. For this objective, a distributed rainfall-sediment yield-runoff model, which consists of rainfall-runoff module for simulation of surface and subsurface flows and sediment yield module based on unit stream power theory, was applied to the mesoscale mountainous area (Cheoncheon catchment; 289.9 $km^2$). For parameter uncertainty evaluation, the model was calibrated by a multi-objective optimization algorithm (MOSCEM) with two different objective functions (RMSE and HMLE) and Pareto optimal solutions of each case were then estimated. In Case I, the rainfall-runoff module was calibrated to investigate the effect of parameter uncertainty on hydrograph reproduction whereas in Case II, sediment yield module was calibrated to show the propagation of parameter uncertainty into sedigraph estimation. Additionally, in Case III, all parameters of both modules were simultaneously calibrated in order to take account of prediction uncertainty in rainfall-sediment yield-runoff modeling. The results showed that hydrograph prediction uncertainty of Case I was observed over the low-flow periods while the sedigraph of high-flow periods was sensitive to uncertainty of the sediment yield module parameters in Case II. In Case III, prediction uncertainty ranges of both hydrograph and sedigraph were larger than the other cases. Furthermore, prediction uncertainty in terms of spatial distribution of erosion and deposition drastically varied with the applied model parameters for all cases.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
• /
• v.36 no.3
• /
• pp.61-74
• /
• 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of sharing uncertain yield information with a downstream supply chain player. We are interested in understanding how the amount of yield uncertainty affects the supply-side benefits and/or costs, which has not been considered in the literature, in addition to the customer-side benefits. With that purpose, this work evaluates a supplier who provides yield information in comparison with another supplier who shares no information. We simulate an order-up-to type heuristic policy that is adapted from the literature and reasonably modified to represent yield information sharing with error. From the simulation study, we argue that the customer would experience cost reduction, but the cost for supplier's inventory is increasing when sharing yield information. Furthermore, the amount of benefits and costs are situational and affected by level of yield uncertainty and demand variance. Based on the simulation study, we finally make several recommendations for the supply-side approaches to yield information sharing.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
• /
• 2000.06a
• /
• pp.1675-1680
• /
• 2000

Recently the uncertainty has been made rapid progress in various fields of industry but the uncertainty measurement method of acoustical test (i.e. Insertion loss, Absorption ratio, Transmission loss etc,) hasn't been established. In this study, the uncertainty of measurement method for ducted silencers is carried out according to ISO 7235. The standard uncertainty factors are composed of sound pressure level, microphone sensitivity and pistonphone calibration in this measurement. Sound pressure level is type A evaluation of uncertainty, microphone sensitivity and pistonphone calibration are type B evaluation of uncertainty. The combined standard uncertainty is calculated by two type evaluation. The expanded uncertainty is expressed by the combined standard uncertainty multiply k value which is yield the effective degree of freedom.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
• /
• v.41 no.2
• /
• pp.1-16
• /
• 2016

Yield management, which originated from the U.S. service industry, uses pricing techniques and information systems to make demand management decisions. Demand uncertainty is an important factor in the area of demand management. A key strategy to reduce the effects of demand uncertainty is substitution. The most generally known type of substitution is inventory-driven substitution, in which consumers substitute an out-of-stock product by buying a similar or other type of product. Another type of substitution is the price-driven substitution, which occurs as a result of price changes. In this research, we consider two market segments that have unique perishable products. We develop yield management optimization models with stochastic demand based on the newsvendor model where inventory-driven and price-driven substitutions are allowed between products in the two market segments. The most significant contribution of this research is that it develops analytical procedures to determine optimal solutions and considers both types of substitution. We also provide detailed theoretical analysis and numerical examples.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.55 no.4
• /
• pp.55-63
• /
• 2013

This study investigates the trends and uncertainty of the impacts of climate change on paddy rice production in the Geumho river basin. The Long Ashton Research Station stochastic Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to derive future climate data for the Geumho river basin from 15 General Circulation models (GCMs) for 3 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A2, A1B and B1) included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) AquaCrop, a water-driven crop model, was statistically calibrated for the 1982 to 2010 climate. The index of agreement (IoA), prediction efficiency ($R^2$), percent bias (PBIAS), root mean square error (RMSE) and a visual technique were used to evaluate the adjusted AquaCrop simulated yield values. The adjusted simulated yields showed RMSE, NSE, IoA and PBIAS of 0.40, 0.26, 0.76 and 0.59 respectively. The 5, 9 and 15 year central moving averages showed $R^2$ of 0.78, 0.90 and 0.96 respectively after adjustment. AquaCrop was run for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2050s (2046-2065) and 2090s (2080-2099). Climate change projections for Geumho river basin generally indicate a hotter and wetter future climate with maximum increase in the annual temperature of $4.5^{\circ}C$ in the 2090s A1B, as well as maximum increase in the rainfall of 45 % in the 2090s A2. The means (and ranges) of paddy rice yields are projected to increase by 21 % (17-25 %), 34 % (27-42 %) and 43 % (31-54 %) for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively. The A1B shows the largest rice yield uncertainty in all time slices with standard deviation of 0.148, 0.189 and $0.173t{\cdot}ha^{-1}$ for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
• /
• 2000.11a
• /
• pp.23-30
• /
• 2000

A calculation technique which estimates natural recharge was proposed and prepared with the existing techniques. And the necessity to obtain representative averages of 'specific yield' was discussed.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
• /
• v.35 no.7
• /
• pp.791-798
• /
• 2011

All mechanical-system parameters have uncertainty, and this uncertainty directly affects system performances and results in a decrease in the manufacturing outputs. In particular, since the size of a MEMS system is extremely small, the manufacturing tolerances of a MEMS system are relatively large when compared to the tolerances of a macro-scale system. High manufacturing tolerances result from an increase in the uncertainty of the system parameters, thereby affecting the performances and manufacturing yields. In this paper, the performance uncertainty of a MEMS accelerometer due to system parameter uncertainty is analyzed by using several uncertainty analysis methods. Finally, the performance distributions and manufacturing yields of the MEMS accelerometer are predicted.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.53-90
• /
• 1992

THis study examines a contingency relationship between task uncertainty and structure of project teams in conjunction with the leader-member communication patterns. Multivariate analyses are used to analyze the data from 63 R & D project teams of research laboratory in a large manufacturing corporation. Major findings for this study can be summarized as follows. First, project teams with an organic structure are found to yield high performance when task uncertainty is high, while project teams with a mechanistic structure achieve high performance when their tasks are relatively certain. Second, patterns of leader-member comunication are significantly associated with both task uncertainty and structural characteristics of project teams. This implies that leaders of project teams communicate with their members in more conslutative manner when their tasks are uncertain or when their team structure exhibits organic characteristics. Finally, task uncertainty playus a significant moderating role in the relationship between consultative communication patterns and performance of project teams. Based upon these findings, this study offers several theoretical, practical, and methodological implications.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
• /
• v.34 no.1
• /
• pp.73-78
• /
• 2010

Estimation of tensile properties measurement uncertainty of material was carried out. Sources of uncertainty affecting the measurement of tensile properties were classified and analyzed. The models for uncertainty evaluation of measurands to be determined from tensile test, such as elastic modulus, yield strength and tensile strength, were suggested and derived from the mathematical relations, corresponding to the respective measurands, and the measuring quantities by calculating each sensitivity coefficient of the quantities. Based on these models, the uncertainty of the tensile properties was evaluated from the experimental data of SUS316LN determined according to ISO 6892.