• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.175-181
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• 2002

BIS(Bus arrival Information System) is a system that informs Passengers waiting at bus stops of the bus arrival time of next buses. However, when operating this system, it is not exactly known what type of bus arrival information should be provided. The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of the optimal bus arrival time to be informed for BIS. Analyzing Efficiency in the Seoul's Urban Bus Industry Using Data Envelopment Analysis. Two basic types of bus arrival information can be considered. One is Bus Locations : Where next buses are located and under what situation they are, such as the next bus departed from the previous stop, The other is Expected Arrival Time. Time to the arrivals of next buses. Characteristics of these two types of bus arrival time information provided for passengers waiting at bus stops for BIS are examined. The waiting time of passengers at bus stops is derived as a function of the bus arrival time to be informed. Some basic principles about the optimal bus arrival time to be informed are found. Finally, a case study assuming several simplifications is performed. One of the key findings is that there exists optimal arrival time to be informed other than the average arrival time. The optimal arrival time to be informed should be closer to the average arrival time for small and very large standard deviations and be earlier for certain amounts of standard deviations.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.125-134
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• 2010

It is occurred bus arrival time errors when a bus arrives at a bus stop because of a variety of traffic condition such as traffic signal cycle, the time to get on and off a bus, a bus-only lane and so on. In this paper, bus delay time which is occurred as the result of traffic condition was estimated with Markov Chain process and bus arrival time at each bus stop was predicted with it. As the result of the study, it is confirmed to improve accuracy than the method of bus arrival time prediction with existing method (weighed moving average method) in case predicting bus arrival time using 7 by 7 and 9 by 9 matrixes.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.597-604
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• 2014

In this study, we investigate to show the limitations of current bus arrival time estimation model based on each bus route, and to propose a bus arrival time estimation model based on a bus stop to overcome these limitations. Using the characteristic of bus arrival time calculated on travel time between two bus stops, we develop a model to estimate bus arrival times with the data of all buses traveling the same section regardless of bus route numbers. In the proposed model, an estimated arrival time is calculated by weighted moving average method, and verification between observed value and estimated time is performed on the basis of RMSE. Error was reduced by up to 20% compared to the existing models and the data update period was reduced by more than half that is related to the accuracy of bus arrival time information. We expect to solve the following problems with the suggested method: sudden increase or decrease in arrival time of the bus, the difference of the expected arrival times at the same stop between two or more buses having different route numbers, and impossibility of offering information of a bus if the bus is not operated with the designated schedule.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.4 s.90
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• pp.117-127
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• 2006

Many large cities in Korea have implemented or planed to implement a bus information system(BIS) to improve service quality for bus Passengers, mainly by Providing bus arrival time at bus stations. In those systems, similar systematic errors to estimate the bus arrival time occur, which are caused by the cycle time to identify each bus location, the information processing time of the center system, and the cycle time to update the bus arrival information on each terminal. This paper investigated each cause sequentially and estimated three expectations related to the above three causes, respectively using the random incidence concept. Through a validation using real data from a BIS in a city in Korea, fairly amount of improvements on the bus arrival time estimation have been observed.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.1-10
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• 2009

Bus delay time is occurred as the result of traffic condition and important factor to predict bus arrival time. In this paper, transition probability matrixes between bus stops are made by using Markov Chain and it is predicted bus delay time with them. As the results of study, it is confirmed a possibility of adapting the assumption which it has same bus transition probability between stops through paired-samples T-test and overcame the limitation of exiting studies in case there is no scheduled bus arrival time for each stops with using bus interval time. Therefore it will be possible to predict bus arrival time with Markov Chain.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.127-134
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• 2013

While there are many services that can check current traffic condition and application program such as bus arrival alarm are developed, since it only provide simple alarm and check level of information, it is still insufficient in many senses. Therefore, the program that try to develop in this study is the system that predict arrival time to destination and inform the bus passengers by applying real time traffic information. The system developed related to this study is still very inadequate. In the system developed in this thesis, when the user input the current bus number and destination using smart-phone, relevant server acquire the bus route information from bus information DB, and analyze real time traffic information based on the information from traffic information DB, and inform customer of expected arrival time to destination. In this thesis, traffic congestion can be eased off and regular operation of public transportation can be improved with reliable destination arrival alarm. Also, it is considered that pattern of bus users can be analyzed by using these information, and analyzing average transport speed and time of public transportation, travel time depending on various situation can give a boost to study related to transportation information and its development.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.135-142
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• 2010

The convenient techniques for predicting the bus arrival time have used the data obtained from the buses belong to the same company only. Consequently, the conventional techniques have often failed to predict the bus arrival time at the downstream bus stops due to the lack of the data during congestion time period. The primary objective of this study is to overcome the weakness of the conventional techniques. The estimation model developed based on the data obtained from Bus Information System(BIS) and Bus management System(BMS). The proposed model predicts the bus arrival time at bus stops by using the data of all buses travelling same roadway section during the same time period. In the tests, the proposed model had a good accuracy of predicting the bus arrival time at the bus stops in terms of statistical measurements (e.g., root mean square error). Overall, the empirical results were very encouraging: the model maintains a prediction job during the morning and evening peak periods and delivers excellent results for the severely congested roadways that are of the most practical interest.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.105-115
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• 1995

This paper deals with an operation concept of "time-transfer of buses", in which buses arrive a transfer center at the same time and allow passengers to transfer to other bus lines, so that passengerscan go anywhere all the timed-transfere buses operate with only one transfer. This timed-transfer bus system is known as an efficient operating technique which can be adopted in an area with sparsely distrubuted bus demand. A model of timed-transfer is estabilished in terms of vaious factors such as the expected(or average) arrival time, distribution of arrival time, timed-transfer cycle, shceduled departure time, etc. It is assumed that the objective of timed-transfer bus system is to minimize the total transfer waiting time. The optimal schedualed arrival time or buffer time(time required to arrive ealy in consideration of delay) is analyzed for a general case and various speicial cases. It was found that the optiaml buffer time is an inverse funcion of the timed-transfer cycl and increases with the cycle time, assumin g that there is a fixed scheduled departure time at the transfer cetner regardless of whether one or more buses fail to arrive before the scheduled departure time. If buses are to wait uhtil all the buses arrive at the transfer center, that is, the transfer departure time is vairable, the optimal scheduled arrival times can be obtained by a mathmatical programming.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.1D
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• pp.1-9
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• 2009

Bus information system(BIS), as a part of the intelligent transportation system(ITS), is one of the most advanced public transportation systems which provide the real-time bus traffic information for the users waiting the buses at the bus stop. However, correct bus information data, such as the present bus location, the user waiting time, the bus arrival time, etc. are not provided for the bus users because the proper bus arrival time predictive models are not used yet in most of the cities operating the bus information system, including the metropolitan City of Ulsan. Thus, the purpose in this study is to investigate real-time bus traffic characteristic data for identifying the bus operation characteristics on the arterial under the study in the metropolitan City of Ulsan, analyze real-time bus traffic characteristic data on the ID locations of the arterial under the study, construct the optimal unit segment models for the unit segments which are the bus stop, node and travel section using the exponential smoothing, weighted smoothing and Kalman Filter methods, respectively, and finally suggest the optimal integrated model for predicting the real-time bus arrival time at the bus stop of the arterial under the study.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.6 s.84
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• pp.81-89
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• 2005

Real-time bus arrival information within the Bus Information System (BIS) is an invaluable resource for users that demand accurate and up-to-date bus headway information while waiting at a bus stop. The associated benefits of such a system come in two folds, that is to 1) resolve the psychological uncertainty caused by the lack of real-time bus arrival information and 2) empower the user waiting at bus stops with the ability to reliably coordinate various tasks and errands, such as a quick trip into a convenience store or restroom without fear of missing a bus pick-up. This paper discusses the appropriate methodology with which to measure the economic value of reliable bus arrival information, with particular emphasis on the psychological uncertainty in users associated with the lack of real-time headway information at bus stops. Data regarding bus transit users' willingness to pay for such a service is obtained through questionnaire surveys, and the Contingent Valuation Method is used to analyze and derive the associated economic value. Our findings indicate the monetary value associated with a real-time bus arrival information system is approximately 132.5 won/min at the 0.3 significance level.