• Title/Summary/Keyword: constrained Bayes estimate

Search Result 3, Processing Time 0.018 seconds

Constrained Bayes and Empirical Bayes Estimator Applications in Insurance Pricing

  • Kim, Myung Joon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.321-327
    • /
    • 2013
  • Bayesian and empirical Bayesian methods have become quite popular in the theory and practice of statistics. However, the objective is to often produce an ensemble of parameter estimates as well as to produce the histogram of the estimates. For example, in insurance pricing, the accurate point estimates of risk for each group is necessary and also proper dispersion estimation should be considered. Well-known Bayes estimates (which is the posterior means under quadratic loss) are underdispersed as an estimate of the histogram of parameters. The adjustment of Bayes estimates to correct this problem is known as constrained Bayes estimators, which are matching the first two empirical moments. In this paper, we propose a way to apply the constrained Bayes estimators in insurance pricing, which is required to estimate accurately both location and dispersion. Also, the benefit of the constrained Bayes estimates will be discussed by analyzing real insurance accident data.

On the Performance of Empiricla Bayes Simultaneous Interval Estimates for All Pairwise Comparisons

  • Kim, Woo-Chul;Han, Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.161-181
    • /
    • 1995
  • The goal of this article is to study the performances of various empirical Bayes simultaneous interval estimates for all pairwise comparisons. The considered empirical Bayes interval estimaters are those based on unbiased estimate, a hierarchical Bayes estimate and a constrained hierarchical Bayes estimate. Simulation results for small sample cases are given and an illustrative example is also provided.

  • PDF

Application of Constrained Bayes Estimation under Balanced Loss Function in Insurance Pricing

  • Kim, Myung Joon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.235-243
    • /
    • 2014
  • Constrained Bayesian estimates overcome the over shrinkness toward the mean which usual Bayes and empirical Bayes estimates produce by matching first and second empirical moments; subsequently, a constrained Bayes estimate is recommended to use in case the research objective is to produce a histogram of the estimates considering the location and dispersion. The well-known squared error loss function exclusively emphasizes the precision of estimation and may lead to biased estimators. Thus, the balanced loss function is suggested to reflect both goodness of fit and precision of estimation. In insurance pricing, the accurate location estimates of risk and also dispersion estimates of each risk group should be considered under proper loss function. In this paper, by applying these two ideas, the benefit of the constrained Bayes estimates and balanced loss function will be discussed; in addition, application effectiveness will be proved through an analysis of real insurance accident data.