• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.117-123
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• 2022

Purpose: This study investigates the relationship between earnings forecasts estimated from a cross-sectional earnings forecast model and firm characteristics such as firm size, sales volatility, and earnings volatility. Research design, data and methodology: The association between earnings forecasts and the aforementioned firm characteristics is examined using 214 firm-year observations with analyst following and 848 firm-year observations without analyst following for the period of 2011-2019. I estimate future earnings using a cross-sectional earnings forecast model, and then compare these model-based earnings forecasts with analysts' earnings forecasts in terms of forecast bias and forecast accuracy. The earnings forecast bias and accuracy are regressed on firm size, sales volatility, and earnings volatility. Results: For a sample with analyst following, I find that the model-based earnings forecasts are more accurate as the firm size is larger, whereas the analysts' earnings forecasts are less biased and more accurate as the firm size is larger. However, for a sample without analyst following, I find that the model-based earnings forecasts are more pessimistic and less accurate as firms' past earnings are more volatile. Conclusions: Although model-based earnings forecasts are useful for evaluating firms without analyst following, their accuracy depends on the firms' earnings volatility.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.15-21
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• 2013

Purpose - Our goal was to determine whether there is a relationship between actual profits' deviation from the profits expected in earnings per share's adjustment announcements and the degree of apparent earnings management in annual financial statements. Research design, data, and methodology - The samples consisted of 133 companies from ten industries. The companies were selected among those listed in the stock exchange, and their data were examined covering the two-year period from 2008 to 2010. Tests were conducted using a regression model and SPSS statistical software. Results - The findings indicate the following. There is no significantly positive relationship among the last earnings per share's adjustment forecast, the first earnings forecast per share, and earnings management. Moreover, the amount of the latest earnings per share's adjustment forecast relative to its first forecast is not associated with the companies' discretionary accruals items. Finally, the hypothesis that a relationship exists between companies' latest adjustments of their earnings per share and earnings management was tested the results indicate that there is no such relationship. Conclusions - The study's results suggest that the amount of earnings per share's adjustment is not a motivation for earnings management.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.137-155
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• 2018

It has been reported that there is a significant positive relationship between the unexpected earnings on the earnings announcement date and the cumulative abnormal returns following the earnings announcement date. This study investigates whether the results of prior studies are because the public announcement of shareholders' meeting date was selected as the event date instead of either the preliminary earnings disclosure date or the profit/loss change announcement date. The results of this study are as follows. First, post-earnings-announcement drift(PEAD) occurs when unexpected earnings were computed based on the prior period earnings and the public announcement of the shareholders' meeting date as the profit disclosure date. Second, when analyzing the PEAD with the unexpected earnings calculated using the financial analysts' forecasts, no PEAD has been found both on the date of the shareholders' meeting and the earlier date of the preliminary earnings disclosure, profit/loss change announcement, or the public announcement of the shareholders' meeting. Foster et al. (1984) analyze the PEAD using time series model and earnings forecasting model and suggest that the PEAD appears only in the time series model. In this study, too, in the case of using analysts' profit forecasts, the lack of the PEAD shows that the PEAD can be changed according to the method of measuring the unexpected earnings.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.151-158
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• 2000

This dissertation measures transitory items using earnings change scaled by beginning-of-period price(FreemanㆍTse 1992) and the earnings-to-price ratio(AliㆍZarowin 1992). Contextual regression model results confirm the incremental explanatory power for predominantly permanent earnings, and suggest that cash flows also have incremental explanatory power in the presence of predominantly permanent earnings. But contextual regression results represent that while earnings are consistent with a smaller marginal impact from extreme (transitory) earnings on abnormal returns, cash flows have no greater impact on abnormal returns in the presence of large transitory components in earnings.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.73-85
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• 2020

The study aims to provide better understanding of sustainable earnings by a comprehensive analysis of earnings persistence of business firms in Vietnam as an example of developing economies in South-East Asia. Dataset of 1,278 publicly listed firms (excluding banking and financial services firms) on Vietnam Stock Exchange for the period from 2008 to 2017 was collected. By applying fixed effect regression model, the empirical results provided the basis to measure the persistence index (Pers index) and find low level of their earnings persistence. The literature of earnings quality analysis in developed countries suggests earnings persistence as a noteworthy determinant of future earnings forecast and stock valuation. However, research of sustainable earnings in developing countries is still highly underdeveloped. For Vietnamese listed firms, the average Pers index was estimated for the period from 2008 to 2010, indicating low level of earnings persistence. We also incorporated earnings persistence level into future earnings forecast by running the quintile regression model divided the data into four equal levels and conducted each section independently to see the difference in each percentile, thence assessed the factors' influence on the specific model. The findings provide important information on the expected returns of firms, especially helping investors make sound decisions.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.91-98
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• 2019

Dividend policy is an important business decision and is considered a channel to communicate a firm's performance to shareholders. Given the empirical findings that earnings quality significantly affects financial analysts' forecasting activities, it is predicted that higher earnings quality would positively influence forecast accuracy. Specifically, it is expected that financial analysts would forecast dividends more accurately for firms with higher earning quality. Unlike the research on financial analysts' earnings forecasts was heavily conducted, there is little study about financial analysts' dividend forecasts. This paper examines the effect of earnings quality on financial analysts' dividend forecast accuracy. We use a sample of South Korean firms for the period of 2011-2015 for multivariate regression. Earnings quality is measured by accruals quality and performance-adjusted discretionary accruals followed by prior studies. We first compare the accuracy between dividend forecasts and earnings forecasts using t-test and Wilcoxon singed-rank test. It is confirmed that financial analysts' dividend forecasts are more accurate than earnings forecasts in Korea. We find that financial analysts' dividend forecasts are more accurate for firms with higher earnings quality. We also find that the result is still valid after controlling for the accuracy of financial analysts' earnings forecasts. This confirms that earnings quality positively affects financial analysts' dividend forecasts.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.109-121
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• 2022

Purpose - This study investigates how earnings volatility influences current stock price informativeness about expectations of future earnings. Design/methodology/approach - I adopt the FERC model developed by Collins et al. (1994) and modified by Lundholm and Myers (2002) to investigate the connection between earnings volatility and future earnings reflected in current returns. I define five-year rolling standard deviations of earnings and components as earnings volatility measures and the degree of deviation of earnings from cash flows over the same five-year, which is developed by Jayaraman (2008). Finding - My results show that earnings volatility delays current stock price response to future operation expectations. They also verify that as earnings are more divergent from cash flows, current returns are less timely incorporating value-relevant future operation. Research implications or Originality This study shows that when volatile earnings deliver obscure and unreliable information about future operation expectations, they cause the market to be conflicting in understandings their implications and make it difficult in attaining correct future cashflow estimates.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.33-43
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• 2020

This study aims to investigate the importance of earnings quality as a determinant of companies' performance. It provides some empirical evidences from an emerging market, specifically from the Jordanian market. This study developed an econometric model for the effect of earnings quality on the companies' performance using empirical evidence. The study employs a panel data analysis method by using a sample of all Jordanian industrial public shareholding companies listed on Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) during 2010-2018. The results reveal that Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Earnings Per Share (EPS) as proxies of company's performance are affected by the earnings quality. This provides the importance of positive earnings quality that eventually influences the companies' performance. The results of this study suggest that the higher control level on the managers' behavior and its outcome will have an effect on earnings quality, and thus the company's performance increases. As well as, high relevance of accounting information will improve earnings quality, and thus earnings quality with the interaction factors of the company's environment work on improving performance. As a conclusion, this study can work as a reference to assist standard setters, security analysts, regulators and other accounting-information users in appraising relation between the earnings quality and companies' performance.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.51-61
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• 2020

The study aims to compare whether using Earnings Response Coefficient (ERC) is better than using the new concept of Accounting Earnings Response Coefficient (AERC) in determining the earnings quality response coefficient value. Also, the study seeks to explain the effect of company characteristics and corporate governance on AERC through voluntary disclosure and information asymmetry. Research samples include 69 manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange over the period 2014-2017. The data come from annual reports, stock market prices, CSPI, EPS, stock returns and market returns. The research model is tested using the structural equation model (SEM) with partial least square (PLS). The results showed the value of the earnings response coefficient produced by AERC and ERC was different. Earnings quality resulting from AERC regression by adding CFO values better reflects the actual earnings quality. These results are consistent with the concept built from the proposition about earnings quality at AERC, that quality earnings are informative accounting earnings. The theoretical findings of this study provide an explanation that operational cash flow plays a role in evaluating earnings quality, while providing reinforcement that the ERC regression model fails to detect stock market reactions to information relevant to the aggregated values of accounting earnings.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.707-715
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• 2021

This article examines the potential impact of the Covid-19 Lockdown on earnings manipulation and stock market sensitivity to earnings announcements. It also explores the effects of earnings manipulation after the COVID-19 outbreak on the share price sensitivity to the earnings disclosures. The study uses a quantitative method to analyze the financial data consisting of 87 firms listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange for the period from 2018 to 2020, which constitutes a total of (174 observations). We used Ohlson (1995) model to estimate financial market reaction and sensitivity to earnings manipulation fluctuations and accounting information. The results show that companies practice earnings manipulation to maintain earnings over a time series, which means a negative impact of earnings manipulation on all earnings measures' value relevance (EPS, BVS, and CFS). Accordingly, earnings manipulation negatively influences investor behavior in the financial market, based mainly on financial reporting. The value relevance of financial reports has also decreased because of the COVID-19 outbreak and related economic Lockdown. These results reflect a long-term adverse impact of earnings manipulation on investor behavior and financial statements reliability.